Re: They didn't move that much...JUST 25%
> So a .6 wobble is within the margin of error for a station
> that hovers between low and high 2's?
Yes. Plus or minus 0.4 is likely the margin of error in that share range in SD. A station I am associate with frequenctly has excursions in INDIVIDUAL months from as low as a 1.4 to as high as a 2.8. This is because each INDIVIDUAL month has 1/3 the total sample, and is very volatile. If one month is very wobbly, it can drive the entire trend off by huge amounts. KBZT has a range, in fact, that is a whole share point wide. This is normal. Low share stations have larger woble ranges as a percentage of total average share than bigger stations as the big stations have gotten more diaries and are less wobbly.
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> I really am trying to understand.
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> What perplexes me is that, considering the money that is
> riding on each tenth of a point and the technology that is
> available, that there can be such a margin of error. I find
> it unacceptable that the industry pours so much money into
> these ratings subscriptions and the provider cannot
> guarentee acurate results.
The margin or error is something you can calculate. Arbitron gives instructions on how to do it in every book.
Stations can and will pay for only so much sample size. Sample size determines reliability. Ideal is a census... 100% of all persons. Anything less has error.
To cut margin of error of a survey in half, one has to quadruple sample size. This would make a survey in SD (or anywhere) too expensive for staitons,a nd of little additonal value to advertisers (who use multi book averages, anyway) so they don't do it.
What is needed is a move to better multimedia technology, the Portable People Meter, which is undergoing final testing now in Texas. The diary, however, is just as accurate as the PPM... but it is not new technology and can not do as many tricks.
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> > > Well, I give up.
> > >
> > > Jack-FM in Los Angeles showed the exact same increase
> and
> > > that's the story of the year, but here's an
> independently
> > > programmed alternative station and it's a non story.
> > >
> > > I'm going to stop trying top figure out what would be
> > > considered good news around here.
> >
> > Jack actually saw steady increases from the Arrow base.
> KBZT
> > simply has seen the normal up and down wobbles that it
> > always has had. On station exceeded its pre vious format
> > level, in two steady jumps. KBZT just wandered around
> > between its historical highs and lows.
> >
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