corporateradiosucks said:
AM radio and print newspapers have been dying the whole time I've been alive. If a terminal patient got that sort of prognosis, I think he'd be a pretty happy camper.
If you're going to use an aging and sick person as a metaphor, bear in mind that most predictions of death include some measure of odds or chances. A forty-something might have a heart attack, and be told that if he doesn't change his lifestyle, he might die. That's the position AM radio was in when they were required to put FM radios in cars. When that same person becomes a fifty-something, he might develop type 2 diabetes, and be told that he's likely to die if he doesn't change his diet. That's the situation AM radio was in back in the 90's. When that same person hits his late 80's, he might be told that he has inoperable cancer, but he might survive with chemotherapy and a miracle. That's the condition AM radio is in now.
AM has been sick in the past, but not fatally so, and by making the right changes, it managed to survive. But as it gets older and older, and the problems get bigger and bigger, and the competition gets stronger and stronger, the chances of dodging a bullet get tougher and tougher. Terrestrial AM radio is going to die. Period. The only question is when.
Some clever person might think of some kind of miracle idea to buy terrestrial AM a few more years. If someone can think of some new miracle programming concept that will buy AM another decade or two of life, more power to you. That miracle will not be simply replace a few on-air people here and there with different people doing basically the same things.
Face it, everyone is dying from the moment they are born. Institutions like entertainment media aren't much different. There were predictions that vaudeville would die soon for as long as vaudeville was around. Most of the predictions were wrong, all but the last one, as eventually it did die. There have been predictions that print newspapers would die going back to the early days of radio. Print newspapers haven't died yet, but they are very, very sick, with fewer and fewer companies in the business, and more and more of those companies making the bulk of their profit from their on-line versions.
Perhaps the problem is that when it comes to institutions like vaudeville, print newspapers, or AM radio, "dead" is a bit of hyperbole. It's an exaggeration. We're not talking "dead" as totally and completely ceasing to exist. Those little transmitters near construction sites that advise you to tune to an unused frequency when the lights are flashing will probably hand around for a while. Some trivial, rudimentary, vestigial remnant of terrestrial AM radio might survive. But it will be "dead" as far as being a significant mass communications medium is concerned.