With all this Christian Talk, someone's presentation will lead to an overkill. I believe in what Bott's doing but seriously, does this market need another station that's Preaching to the Choir. I don't think so. If an independent player were the ones buying it out, that would be exciting. What this market doesn't need is another canned talk satellite fed presentation that won't have mass appeal. Just my two cents.
I think this is all going to work itself out. Des Moines, like many sizable markets that far away from other sizable markets is over-radio'd. That's true broadly and in terms of Christian radio.
There is some listener overlap between CCM (music like Life/K-Love) and the Christian Talk format, but not as much as you would guess. Looking at the non-catholic, Christian Teaching and Talk stations... Currently there are :
Saga's KPSZ 940 AM (no presence on FM)
VCY's KVDI 99.3 FM (airs a substantial amount of non-ccm music)
These two actually have very little programming overlap. I only see one 30 minute weekday program shared.
Incoming:
Bott's KCVD 88.1 (no music)
AFR's KJMC 89.3 (likely no music).
Bott and AFR do share a number of the same national programs with each other, but Bott produces little in-house while AFR's flagship programming is internal created. Generally speaking... Bott is more focused on Bible-teaching and AFR more on current issues and talk.
Bott does have some overlap with KPSZ and VCY. AFR has a little overlap with with KPSZ and VCY.
For what it is, Bott does a very good job. They carry most all of the best national teaching programs. The presentation is sincere and serious (some might say too dry), but it is not amateur hour and they have very strict standards about which ministry programs they will air, which is a lot more than you can say about some other similarly-formatted stations.
There are also some CSN satellators which I won't address since those are secondary services.
I think what looks likely is that KPSZ seems to be the odd one out... long term. Kind of similar to KAAY in Little Rock. Owned by a secular, commercial broadcaster surrounded by a cluster of very different, non-complimentary stations with local labor expenses and only available on AM.
P.S. I believe that doing local styled programming, is the best way to go. You stand a much better chance of making it, when you go that route.
For a large market talk or sports station you are absolutely correct. For Christian Talk, where we are primarily talking about 30 and 60 minutes blocks of programming at a time, you probably have a worse shot at making it because your cost structure is going to be a huge disadvantage, especially if you are "competing" against Bott, who will have all the top national programs and only a local engagement person, if that. There are not enough local ministry programs of similar viability to go all local.