KFI - What is holding back the (inevitable?) move to FM?

[ChannelFlipper]

This last several posts on the KHHT thread had gotten away from the original topic, particularly my last post regarding KFI, so I thought I would repost my post as a new topic here. What do you think is keeping KFI from making the transition? I think that KFI could become a mega national brand even as it serves an LA-only audience by making the move to FM. Here is the reposted post

I think the only thing holding KFI back is what to do with the brand new stick for 640 AM if they were to merge to FM. Yes, they would need to simulcast initially, but that doesn't make any sense long-term.There is no AM format out there they could just put on to justify the cost of the stick and the whole operation. The only logical thing would be to go either all news or all-sports.

The news infrastructure is largely in place, I can easily see them being a content generator for other stations while becoming the West Coast news flamethrower. A full-on KFI news station would destroy both KNX and KFWB, each of which is a shadow of its former self. (KFWB is simply embarrassing.) Then you'd have the great combo - all news on AM, Handel, John and Ken and talk line-up on FM. The two could even be cross-branded and marketed. "KFI - More stimulating talk at 92.3, more stimulating news at 640" (Consulting checks to ChannelFlipper c/o Radio-info.com. Thanks, Glad to help!)

Second option would be to transfer the sports at 570 to 640, grab the Dodgers and take on KSPN. Once the Laker season is over and 710 KSPN gets them, the game immediately changes in KSPN's favor as CC will have no Lakers, Dodgers, or Angels. Jim Rome can handle mornings, but he can't carry the station with no sports properties to speak of. Problem is, if you do this then what do you do with the 570 signal? Might as well put Standards back on, that's who will be listening anyway. I understand the Scootaround and Centrum Silver will buy ad time.

 

[davideduardo]

I think the only thing holding KFI back is what to do with the brand new stick for 640 AM if they were to merge to FM. Yes, they would need to simulcast initially, but that doesn't make any sense long-term.There is no AM format out there they could just put on to justify the cost of the stick and the whole operation. The only logical thing would be to go either all news or all-sports.

With the size of the existing audience, I would think that a KFI simulcast with a new FM would be the first step. That might go on for some time, or transition, a la KTAR in Phoenix or WIBC in Indy or KIRO in Seattle to a new AM format, likely sports oriented. That is sort of a no brainer, since there are very few other viable formats for FM other than ethnic or brokered or religion.

The cost of the tower rebuild is not significant, and was likely covered by insurance. 700 foot towers are not costly, and they already had the site and the transmitter... the real issue is tha of itself (although the non-recoverable legal costs are likely very significant)t the AM could become an impaired asset and require an APB mandated writedown of the asset.

With the PPM now showing KFI at 15th 25-54, I'd imagine that some thought is being given to an FM move. I expected something sooner... but I expected KFYI in Phoenix to move faster, too (and they have, apparently, just been whupped by KTAR FM in the precurrency PPMs per the Phx. board).

 

[AM FM listener]

I think KFI needs to go to FM, probably 92.3, very soon. I also think they should simulcast KFI-AM & FM indefinitely, unless there is some FCC rule against that. The FM would bring down their demos in LA metro while the AM would continue to boom the same programming all over Southern California.

I don't like the sports-on-AM idea because sports radio just doesn't seem to attract much of an audience in LA. Despite winning teams, LA is just not that passionate of a sports town.

The all-news-on-AM is intriguing and might work. The FM could simulcast the AM for news "at the top and bottom of the hour and when it breaks" then go back to talk in between the news breaks. That said, the banter between the talk host and the news person is currently part of KFI's charm and that might be a challenge to pull off with this idea.

 

[4UH8SIMBKAGN]

Not going to happen. Not going to happen. Not going to happen. Get a clue. Clear Channel has NO current plans to move their talk stations to FM. Period. Wasted thread. It isn't going to happen ANYTIME soon and certainly not in 2009.

 

[davideduardo]

Not going to happen. Not going to happen. Not going to happen. Get a clue. Clear Channel has NO current plans to move their talk stations to FM. Period. Wasted thread. It isn't going to happen ANYTIME soon and certainly not in 2009.

And Clear is going to let KFYI in Phoenix die, now that PPM appears to be showing that KTAR FM has beaten them by about 40% in 25-54, for the sole reason that it is on FM? The handwriting is on the wall, the ceiling, the floor... news talk is going to be making major moves to FM.

 

[radioresearcher]

If KFI were have to a fully staffed news department - and with KFWB basically abandoning the News format - how about KFI-FM being talked focused and KFI-AM being all News... Yes, it's AM - but it has an amazing signal and they could take revenue away from CBS.

 

[radioresearcher]

Not going to happen. Not going to happen. Not going to happen. Get a clue. Clear Channel has NO current plans to move their talk stations to FM. Period. Wasted thread. It isn't going to happen ANYTIME soon and certainly not in 2009.

And Clear is going to let KFYI in Phoenix die, now that PPM appears to be showing that KTAR FM has beaten them by about 40% in 25-54, for the sole reason that it is on FM? The handwriting is on the wall, the ceiling, the floor... news talk is going to be making major moves to FM.

Based on how poorly KYOT did - and the fact they just detonated Smooth Jazz in SF and Chicago this week, seems like moving KFYI to 95.5 might be a smart move.

 

[elchupacabras]

If KFI were have to a fully staffed news department - and with KFWB basically abandoning the News format - how about KFI-FM being talked focused and KFI-AM being all News... Yes, it's AM - but it has an amazing signal and they could take revenue away from CBS.

Interesting idea, but likely very expensive. All-News is a costly format, but the idea does have merit, probably not now though with the economy in the crapper.

 

[nmoore6676]

Like it or not there is not a single FM signal in this market that consistently covers the entire area like KFI now that they are back at full power. There is the argument that younger people won't use AM and that might be a consideration for the future, however there is the "if you build it they will come" philosophy at work here. For a talk format there is not a lot to be gained by putting it on FM, in fact telephone calls sound more annoying to me on FM than AM. I do notice that KFI is on again off again with the IBOC so if they can not get that working they could go back to a wider bandwidth AM signal and it would be more than acceptable to listeners.

AM radio also enjoys a greater security for emergency radio operation and KFI is a primary station in the emergency broadcast service. If there were a major catastrophe FM and TV could be knocked out for a long time. They need those tall towers or mountaintop locations whereas AM can get back on the air with a long wire if need be.

 

[elchupacabras]

Like it or not there is not a single FM signal in this market that consistently covers the entire area like KFI now that they are back at full power. There is the argument that younger people won't use AM and that might be a consideration for the future, however there is the "if you build it they will come" philosophy at work here. For a talk format there is not a lot to be gained by putting it on FM, in fact telephone calls sound more annoying to me on FM than AM. I do notice that KFI is on again off again with the IBOC so if they can not get that working they could go back to a wider bandwidth AM signal and it would be more than acceptable to listeners.

AM radio also enjoys a greater security for emergency radio operation and KFI is a primary station in the emergency broadcast service. If there were a major catastrophe FM and TV could be knocked out for a long time. They need those tall towers or mountaintop locations whereas AM can get back on the air with a long wire if need be.

No offense, but 80 percent of all listening is on FM. AM is dying and even IBOC is unlikely to help it, even with a wider-band sound. If you look at the ratings for the latest 10-15 years, the demos only get older (now virtually 55+), whereas those who switch to FM get younger and pick up shares. Look at KIRO in Seattle, KTAR in Tucscon or KSL in SLC, Utah.

I too love AM, and last night while listening to WOAI bemoaned the thought that in 10 years in will probably be dead, but it IS a reality, no matter how hard we try. FM is here to stay and IBOC HD is the wave of the future.

Long wires are not that efficient either for propagation. For instance, I can get out much further on a part 15 FM at 30 feet HAAT than I can on a longwire AM (although I haven't done it for years). Broadcasters already deal with such contingencies with exciters and boosters strategically placed. With all due respect your emergency angle doesn't hold water. If you really wanted to go all out for emergency coverage, CW (even on QRP) is the best, but nobody would understand it these days!

 

[landtuna]

Look at KIRO in Seattle, KTAR in Tucscon or KSL in SLC, Utah.

KTAR is an AM in Phoenix last time I looked.

FM is here to stay and IBOC HD is the wave of the future.

FM might be 'here to stay' but you won't convince me IBOC is.

If you really wanted to go all out for emergency coverage, CW (even on QRP) is the best, but nobody would understand it these days!

I assume you meant the general public? I used to do 25 WPM back in the 60's and can still do about 12 or so (but not at 100% like the old days).

 

[oldiesfan6479]

...there is not a single FM signal in this market that consistently covers the entire area
like KFI now that they are back at full power.

Not take anything away from KFI's 50 gallons, but I have listened to KRTH
on a Walkman sitting outside of terminal 2 at (San Diego) Lindbergh Field,
and in a car inbound to El Lay on I-10 just east of Palm Springs.

I believe there are also one or two Mt. Wilson FM sticks with even more ERP
at a similar HAAT than KRTH.

 

[fybush]

Here's how I've had it explained to me by some sources very close to the decision (for now) to keep KFI, and Clear Channel's other big AMs, on AM:

The sense is that as soon as the programming of a KFI or a WLW or a WOAI is moved to FM, the resulting increase in ratings/desirable demos/revenues is immediately and permanently offset by the effective writedown of the AM band in that market down to zero, or close to it. And at least for now, the belief in San Antonio (and in Tulsa and Cincinnati, whence the engineering advice comes) is that the math doesn't add up yet.

In other words - or rather, in equation form:

(KFI today on AM) + (KHHT today on FM) > (KFI on FM) + (whatever minimal revenue might come from 640 in a new incarnation)

The math obviously varies depending on local market considerations.

In Pittsburgh, where CC launched a new news-talker a few years ago, it very sensibly did so by blowing up the least successful of its five FMs rather than using its lone AM signal, a directionally-impaired 5 kW sports station.

In Phoenix, where CC's KFYI is under assault from Bonneville's KTAR-FM, it's probably just a matter of time before KFYI migrates to FM.

But in LA, where KFI is easily CC's biggest AM revenue producer nationwide, and one of the market's overall revenue leaders? My sense is that as long as (a) KFI remains reasonably successful at its current dial position, and (b) it doesn't get challenged by a KNX-FM or KFWB-FM or perhaps a new Bonneville offering, this will continue to be no more than an interesting thought experiment for some time to come.

What's probably more likely (and this is just pure speculation on my part now) is a Fresno-style brand extension - KFI keeps doing what it's doing on 640, with a new, younger-skewing KFI-FM 92.3 (or 104.3, or whatever) serving as an FM sister station, perhaps with a daypart or two simulcast...but not an all-out move of the current KFI to FM.

(One other piece to this: it's my understanding that CC is also acutely conscious of the effect that a move of any of its high-profile AM stations to FM would have on the perception and value of AM overall. They're determined to protect, as long as possible, whatever revenue they get not only from the big guns like KFI but also the secondary AMs like KLAC, which they believe would be less likely to find listeners on the AM dial if talk-format listeners are encouraged to migrate wholesale to FM.)

 

[AM FM listener]

Scott, that was an impressive summary of why KFI and KHHT should stay as they are for now. I will buy that reasoning. I suppose KFI-FM is more of a longer-term strategic issue rather than something CC feels compelled to rush into now, despite similar moves by other companies in other markets.

 

[nmoore6676]

...there is not a single FM signal in this market that consistently covers the entire area
like KFI now that they are back at full power.

Not take anything away from KFI's 50 gallons, but I have listened to KRTH
on a Walkman sitting outside of terminal 2 at (San Diego) Lindbergh Field,
and in a car inbound to El Lay on I-10 just east of Palm Springs.

I believe there are also one or two Mt. Wilson FM sticks with even more ERP
at a similar HAAT than KRTH.

That is not reliable reception. When conditions are right I can also hear San Diego FM's here in North Hollywood. In other words it is like long distance skip reception on AM. What I was referring to is that as I move around in the area reception of local FM stations changes. For instance along Huntington Blvd. leaving Pasadena going East, KKGO gets clobbered by Power. At home KLSX gets clobbered by KYSR. In some areas I can get San Diego FM better than closer stations. Even though I live within spitting distance of KSPN even with the IBOC on I can get every station on AM that I want and even distant reception at night. I am also in a high field strength area of KGIL and KRLA yet I have no problems.

Also reiterating my point about getting back on air following a catastrophe I can cite a real life example. In my original home town of Springfield Ohio about 30 plus years ago a tornado took down the tower of an AM/FM combo. The AM was back on the air in a couple of hours from a long wire while the FM waited until a rigging crew could put up the new tower (about a week). Yes long wires aren't all that efficient but they can get a signal on the air in an emergency. As an ex-ham I've done it but unfortunately the ham life style had to be surrendered when I became a city apartment dweller.

But Scott Fybush has the best information as to why the big AMs will stay for a while at least. It is all about the value, if they devalue AM properties by abandoning them their total net worth will hit the crapper and in today's turbulent times that is not good.

 

[fybush]

Scott, that was an impressive summary of why KFI and KHHT should stay as they are for now. I will buy that reasoning. I suppose KFI-FM is more of a longer-term strategic issue rather than something CC feels compelled to rush into now, despite similar moves by other companies in other markets.

Precisely so. For all the problems CC is dealing with now, there's still an understanding that the company's big AMs have significant value, and that rushing into a wholesale move to FM would be an overreaction.

Citadel, with even more problems, is also holding back, though that may have something to do with the relatively small FM portfolio it got from ABC. (Move KFI to FM and you've still only affected two out of seven stations in the CC cluster; move KABC to FM and you're putting your entire cluster on the line.)

It looks, from the outside, as though CBS feels the same way, though CBS has been more active than CC in putting its AM properties on FM HD multicast channels, and it has experimented with an AM-FM simulcast of one of its big AMs, KCBS.

There are really only two other companies that have made significant AM-to-FM moves - Bonneville is by far the largest, with WTOP, KTAR, KIRO and KSL, and then Emmis in Indianapolis with WIBC.

I can't read Bonneville's mind on this, but I suspect their rationales differed from market to market. WTOP really had to make the move because of the painfully inadequate coverage of its old AM signal, and the format (classical) that was replaced on the FM wasn't going to make it in the long term anyway. KTAR and KIRO both had perfectly adequate AM signals, but making the jump to FM appears to have given them a competitive edge over what had been strong AM competitors, KFYI and KOMO/KVI. Add to that the sports rights that Bonneville holds in both markets and the stage was set to preserve at least some AM value by flipping to sports. And KSL...well, that was just making the flagship station of the group even more of a behemoth at home, since they kept the AM simulcast.

It would be interested to see how the moves to FM at those stations, and at WIBC, have affected overall levels of AM listening in their markets. David has alluded to reports that KFYI took a serious hit in Phoenix, and WMAL appears to be suffering in Washington now that all of its significant news-talk competition (not just WTOP but public radio WAMU) is on FM.

There's certainly no question that Clear Channel's biggest FM news-talk startup, WPGB, has taken a serious toll on KDKA - but some of that has to be attributed to WPGB's grab of some of KDKA's programming draws (Rush and the Pirates), too.

 

[LKellerIII]

Scott, that was an impressive summary of why KFI and KHHT should stay as they are for now. I will buy that reasoning. I suppose KFI-FM is more of a longer-term strategic issue rather than something CC feels compelled to rush into now, despite similar moves by other companies in other markets.

Precisely so. For all the problems CC is dealing with now, there's still an understanding that the company's big AMs have significant value, and that rushing into a wholesale move to FM would be an overreaction.

Citadel, with even more problems, is also holding back, though that may have something to do with the relatively small FM portfolio it got from ABC. (Move KFI to FM and you've still only affected two out of seven stations in the CC cluster; move KABC to FM and you're putting your entire cluster on the line.)

It looks, from the outside, as though CBS feels the same way, though CBS has been more active than CC in putting its AM properties on FM HD multicast channels, and it has experimented with an AM-FM simulcast of one of its big AMs, KCBS.

There are really only two other companies that have made significant AM-to-FM moves - Bonneville is by far the largest, with WTOP, KTAR, KIRO and KSL, and then Emmis in Indianapolis with WIBC.

I can't read Bonneville's mind on this, but I suspect their rationales differed from market to market. WTOP really had to make the move because of the painfully inadequate coverage of its old AM signal, and the format (classical) that was replaced on the FM wasn't going to make it in the long term anyway. KTAR and KIRO both had perfectly adequate AM signals, but making the jump to FM appears to have given them a competitive edge over what had been strong AM competitors, KFYI and KOMO/KVI. Add to that the sports rights that Bonneville holds in both markets and the stage was set to preserve at least some AM value by flipping to sports. And KSL...well, that was just making the flagship station of the group even more of a behemoth at home, since they kept the AM simulcast.

It would be interested to see how the moves to FM at those stations, and at WIBC, have affected overall levels of AM listening in their markets. David has alluded to reports that KFYI took a serious hit in Phoenix, and WMAL appears to be suffering in Washington now that all of its significant news-talk competition (not just WTOP but public radio WAMU) is on FM.

There's certainly no question that Clear Channel's biggest FM news-talk startup, WPGB, has taken a serious toll on KDKA - but some of that has to be attributed to WPGB's grab of some of KDKA's programming draws (Rush and the Pirates), too.

Two comments in regard to the Bay Area - as mentioned, KCBS stared simulcasting recently on FM (106.9), but that frequency was a recent acquisition for CBS. Their first two short-lived formats on 106.9 were talk on Free-FM, followed by a return of Classic Hits KFRC. Both were abject failures, so CBS really had nothing to lose by going to the KCBS simulcast. So far it seems to be paying off - in the last 2 ratings periods, KCBS is either beating or tying Citadel's KGO-AM in the ratings.

Unfortunately, Citadel does not own an FM frequency in the Bay Area, so they're now at a competitive disadvantage. Needless to say, Citadel cannot afford to buy an FM, considering the economic abyss they are iin.

 

[4UH8SIMBKAGN]

Not going to happen. Not going to happen. Not going to happen. Get a clue. Clear Channel has NO current plans to move their talk stations to FM. Period. Wasted thread. It isn't going to happen ANYTIME soon and certainly not in 2009.

And Clear is going to let KFYI in Phoenix die, now that PPM appears to be showing that KTAR FM has beaten them by about 40% in 25-54, for the sole reason that it is on FM? The handwriting is on the wall, the ceiling, the floor... news talk is going to be making major moves to FM.

Wrong. Only the spray paint that you are using is. NOT at Clear Channel anytime soon. Period. You have ABSOLUTELY no proof that they are going to and you've been singing this song for long enough that I've proved you are wrong all along the way (KFYI isn't dying either).

Clear Channel has not moved ONE bit towards moving their news/talk stations to FM. Two nearby examples. One Phoenix. One Tucson. Both have an FM challenger, one from an AM and one a start-up and have for OVER a year (more than). Neither Clear Channel station has moved to FM.

In fact, ONLY ONE, to the best of my knowledge, Clear Channel news/talk station west of the Rockies is even on HD-2, KFYI. No KOGO, NO KFBK, NO KFI...

When you have some FACTS, which you lack on this subject, post them.

 

[davideduardo]

to FM.

But in LA, where KFI is easily CC's biggest AM revenue producer nationwide, and one of the market's overall revenue leaders? My sense is that as long as (a) KFI remains reasonably successful at its current dial position, and (b) it doesn't get challenged by a KNX-FM or KFWB-FM or perhaps a new Bonneville offering, this will continue to be no more than an interesting thought experiment for some time to come.

The issue here also seems to be the PPM. In Phoenix, where I have only anecdotal reports, KTAR FM has apparently "trounced" KFYI, leaving it considerably behind in the sales demos. If they don't protect KFYI by FMing it, they will be out of the news/talk franchise and whole game.

In LA, the issue is demos. Sales demos, in a down economy where buys are going less deep than ever before. And KFI is now around 15th in the PPM in 25-54, and that is pretty far down the list, even for LA where buys go pretty deep!

What I think is happening is that other companies that do not have the worry about asset impairment and the APB concerns are moving to FM. Some are going to establish beachheads in markets where Clear has big AM talkers... challenging the WHAS and KOA and WOAI legacies... if they resist the temptation to try to do a young talker and fill a need that doesn't exist.

What's probably more likely (and this is just pure speculation on my part now) is a Fresno-style brand extension - KFI keeps doing what it's doing on 640, with a new, younger-skewing KFI-FM 92.3 (or 104.3, or whatever) serving as an FM sister station, perhaps with a daypart or two simulcast...but not an all-out move of the current KFI to FM.

This is, in most cases, Free FM. And is not going to get the 35-54's who whould listen to "Rush and Friends" were they on a band that actually sounds decent and not like the studio was a cereal box.

(One other piece to this: it's my understanding that CC is also acutely conscious of the effect that a move of any of its high-profile AM stations to FM would have on the perception and value of AM overall. They're determined to protect, as long as possible, whatever revenue they get not only from the big guns like KFI but also the secondary AMs like KLAC, which they believe would be less likely to find listeners on the AM dial if talk-format listeners are encouraged to migrate wholesale to FM.)

At some point, Clear has to realize that AM may be an anachronism, perpetuated for the benefit of the accountrants, and the spirit that built AM back at WOAI and KTOK and such is simply not appreciated by today's listeners who will not listen to AM at all if they are under 50 or so.

Not too many realize that Clear was instrumental in "saving" AM in the 80's. AM stereo came with too little too late, and regulations including Fairness impeded the more gladiatorial style of talk that was needed to draw attention back to the band. Clear's interest in buying fading AMs and its dedication to changes in legislation played not a small part in making AM survive for another couple of decades... but they may now be guilty of hanging on when they should move on, and other operators may raid the pantry first.

 

[davideduardo]

Wrong. Only the spray paint that you are using is. NOT at Clear Channel anytime soon. Period. You have ABSOLUTELY no proof that they are going to and you've been singing this song for long enough that I've proved you are wrong all along the way (KFYI isn't dying either).

No, it isn't dying. It was dying under the diary, where KTAR FM was getting better demos and much better station-to-station billing even if it did not win. Now, from all reports, KTAR FM beats KFYI in 25-54 by a huge and impressive margin... in pre-currency data from the PPM. We now know from experience that the precurrency stuff changes little, and the folks at Clear know it, too.

Clear Channel has not moved ONE bit towards moving their news/talk stations to FM. Two nearby examples. One Phoenix. One Tucson. Both have an FM challenger, one from an AM and one a start-up and have for OVER a year (more than). Neither Clear Channel station has moved to FM.

And they will lose. To save what? A marginal AM in Tucson and a less than perfect one in Phoenix? The crowd in Phoenix knows the difference...

The fact on this subject is that operators who don't move heritage n/t stations to FM will be challenged and either beaten or badly fragged by others who move faster.