KFMB RUMOR

[davideduardo]

WTOP's various AM stations (a total of 3) still didn't cover the entire Washington DC metro, therefore moving the format to a powerful FM made sense.

To some extent, the additional signals were to increase coverage outside the metro knowing how many long comuters there are. 820 did not really help metro coverage as it is far off in Frederick, not in the MSA.

The real issue, though, is that 1500 is an AM and it was getting low 25-54 numbers. Now, on FM, it is a significant 25-54 contender and sales have risen 100% since the early 2000's in a market that is down in total revenues, and all of this is due to the 25-54 increase. In '04 the station averaged around a 3.6 share, and is now a 6.6, with all the increase coming in sales demos.

BTW it's KXL in Portland. In KFMB's case without a younger lineup the improvement in 35-54's
would be only slight.

Sorry... got the calls mixed. In any case, every move to FM or simulcast with FM has improved saless demos because the under 55's just don't listen much, if at all, to AM.

 

[Garrett]

WTOP's various AM stations (a total of 3) still didn't cover the entire Washington DC metro, therefore moving the format to a powerful FM made sense.

To some extent, the additional signals were to increase coverage outside the metro knowing how many long comuters there are. 820 did not really help metro coverage as it is far off in Frederick, not in the MSA.

The real issue, though, is that 1500 is an AM and it was getting low 25-54 numbers. Now, on FM, it is a significant 25-54 contender and sales have risen 100% since the early 2000's in a market that is down in total revenues, and all of this is due to the 25-54 increase. In '04 the station averaged around a 3.6 share, and is now a 6.6, with all the increase coming in sales demos.

BTW it's KXL in Portland. In KFMB's case without a younger lineup the improvement in 35-54's
would be only slight.

Sorry... got the calls mixed. In any case, every move to FM or simulcast with FM has improved saless demos because the under 55's just don't listen much, if at all, to AM.

David,
Why are you working so hard to defend this "rumor?"

 

[AnimatronicAbeLincoln]

In any case, every move to FM or simulcast with FM has improved saless demos because the under 55's just don't listen much, if at all, to AM.

Agree wholeheartedly with David. What these guys really look at is precedent. The move of simulcasting your AM on FM, or moving it to FM outright, has been done successfully in enough markets to allow the higher-ups to be comfortable with the decision.

Additionally, if it's inevitable that KOGO will do it, it's much better to do it before them, than to wait and be the second one in.

 

[Garrett]

But KOGO already did it and it didn't work?

 

[Michael Rivers Kramer]

But KOGO already did it and it didn't work?

That was on a tiny north county signal....Actually, it was in Riverside county.

 

[davideduardo]

David,
Why are you working so hard to defend this "rumor?"

I don't care at all about the rumor... I am defending the basic intelligence and reasoning for the concept, should they do what more and more moribund AM talkers are doing.

I looked at the top AM talker in each of the top 50 US markets. Only three, WLW, KGO and KFI, are in the top 10 in 18-49 as of Fall of last year. In other words, the rest, like <KMOX and WCCO are becoming less and less viable each year. All of those except WLW and KFI are declining in revenue, too.

Moving to either FM only or a simulcast is the only intelligent long run thing to do.

 

[SDRadio]

I don't care at all about the rumor...

David deals with the facts. Plain and simple.

Although I did hear that four out of five people don't believe rumors.

 

[Garrett]

Rumor or not, it is a bad idea.
Mark Twain said: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

That putting KFMB AM on FM would work falls under that last one!

 

[Garrett]

Rumor or not, it is a bad idea.
Mark Twain said: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

That putting KFMB AM on FM would work falls under that last one!

No, I'm not calling DE a liar, and yes, I know it is attributed to Benjamin Disraeli.

 

[TVC1500]

David, do us all a favor stick to what you know. Don't hang out a consultant's shingle for
spoken word formats anytime soon.

Funny, I go to the conferences & conventions and we have never invited you to enlighten us on News-Talk, Talk, Sports, or Full-Service Talk. Gee 18-49, that's an interesting target demo for Spoken Word. Gabe Hobbs has your contact information? Do your homework, study what an abject failure the Free FM brand was. Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh & Bill O 'Reilly will never be significant players on AM or FM with 18-49s.

Let's forget about show pod-casts, streaming, merchandising, video clips. Eduardo has our answer. Any idiot could tell you that sure putting an AM Talker on a big FM signal would be a positive. Unfortunately you have to weigh that option with the potential lost revenue and ratings to your AM property. If a property needs to be protected from a start-up their is always a nuclear strategy-which may involve a simulcast or variation of your primary brand via another frequency.

 

[RadioFixerCLE]

I understand David Eduardo's reasoning about a format moving from AM to FM.

However, the way to improve things ALL AROUND is to do a simulcast and give both frequencies equal billing. This way you're benefitting from the long-range of the AM signal and the clear sound of the FM.

This comes in handy in crowded metro areas with high-rise concrete towers where AM signals do not penetrate -- you can catch the office/shop crowd that way. Also, the "young listener" who "discovers" the new format on FM will likely switch over to AM to continue hearing the programming once they move out of range of the FM signal.

 

[Garrett]

Ok, please, let’s not gang up on David, even if we disagree with him, he knows a lot more than some of us (and certainly more than me). I see things from a listener perspective and I’m NO expert, while David knows the business. Sure, there are things that need to be done to improve the bottom line, and by the numbers, David is correct.

I philosophically disagree with David on this one, only because I think this decision (still just a rumor) ignores the listener, would close the books on a legendary FM station, and would be a curious move for a large market like San Diego. Listeners are important. Just look at what happened with WCBS FM. By the numbers and on paper, JACKING CBS-FM was a great idea. In practice it was a PR nightmare, that received national bad press. While people may not be keen on JACK on 100.7, in my opinion, putting talk on 100.7 would just upset more listeners, anybody still around since Jeff and Jer left. KFMB AM already has a good signal. They spent millions of dollars on it in the early 1990s. It doesn't need to be in stereo, and this is a waste of a good FM signal, in a market where FM talk was already tried and failed. That's just an opinion. But by the numbers and the facts (as they are being used) David is correct.

Please, lets be respectful of him.

David, do us all a favor stick to what you know. Don't hang out a consultant's shingle for
spoken word formats anytime soon.

Funny, I go to the conferences & conventions and we have never invited you to enlighten us on News-Talk, Talk, Sports, or Full-Service Talk. Gee 18-49, that's an interesting target demo for Spoken Word. Gabe Hobbs has your contact information? Do your homework, study what an abject failure the Free FM brand was. Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh & Bill O 'Reilly will never be significant players on AM or FM with 18-49s.

Let's forget about show pod-casts, streaming, merchandising, video clips. Eduardo has our answer. Any idiot could tell you that sure putting an AM Talker on a big FM signal would be a positive. Unfortunately you have to weigh that option with the potential lost revenue and ratings to your AM property. If a property needs to be protected from a start-up their is always a nuclear strategy-which may involve a simulcast or variation of your primary brand via another frequency.

 

[davideduardo]

David, do us all a favor stick to what you know. Don't hang out a consultant's shingle for
spoken word formats anytime soon.

Considering my talker in LA beat KFI in 25-54 on numerous occasions, that I created the #1 talker in Puerto Rico in one period of years, had the #1 talker in Argentina (with more audience than any US talker) and nearly lost my life with an anti-Goverment talker in 1970, I have the background and ratings to discuss the format.

So let's see your next attempt to invalidate my comments.

[/quote]Funny, I go to the conferences & conventions and we have never invited you to enlighten us on News-Talk, Talk, Sports, or Full-Service Talk.[/quote]

Refresh your memory. I was in charge of programming 10 talk stations in the late 1990's, including NY, LA, Chicago, Houston, Dallas... hmmm.... that is 5 of the top 10 US markets.

Gee 18-49, that's an interesting target demo for Spoken Word.

I used 18-49 since buys are moving away from 25-54 to be more 18-49 based. If a talker does not have any 18-49 or 25-54, it's not going to get bought for most agency buys.

And, of course, my point is that AM talkers that are not in the top 10 18-49 suddenly appear and with good numbers in that demo when they start FM simulcasting or move to FM. Look at the amazing younger demo showing last fall for WOKV in Jacksonville by Cox as an excellent example.

Gabe Hobbs has your contact information?

No, I have his. But I don't think we need to hire him.

Do your homework, study what an abject failure the Free FM brand was. Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh & Bill O 'Reilly will never be significant players on AM or FM with 18-49s.

Look at Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Charleston (SC), SLC, and the others. That very same formula with those talents or similar has made the difference between being out of the top 10 in 25-54 and 18-49 and being solidly in it. WIBC in Indy is the best example of all. Emmis just plugged the audio into a different transmitter on December 27 and zoomed into the top 5 15-54 and top 10 18-49.

Let's forget about show pod-casts, streaming, merchandising, video clips. Eduardo has our answer. Any idiot could tell you that sure putting an AM Talker on a big FM signal would be a positive.

Clear is doing it. Bonneville is doing it. Emmis is doing it. Cox is doing it. It gives new life to fading AM talkers, in a format that will get under-55's if not on AM. And it is a format that is vastly less susceptible to new technology competiton than some more music jukebox.

Unfortunately you have to weigh that option with the potential lost revenue and ratings to your AM property.

Since the AMs will be dead in the realitively near future, and nearly all are losing revenues, this is a smart thing to do to preserve the "ownership" of the talk postion rather than losing it to a new traditional talk FM startup.

 

[davideduardo]

Rumor or not, it is a bad idea.
Mark Twain said: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

That putting KFMB AM on FM would work falls under that last one!

In every instance where an AM traditional talker with at least mid-range ratings has either moved to FM or done an AM FM simulcast, the under-55 listenership in both cume and share as increased very significantly.

Since, in the larger markets, life depends on getting agency buys, 25-54 is critical. The erosion of 25-54 shares for AM talkers as the listeners aged and under-55's refused to listen to AM has caused almost every significant top 100 market talker to lose significant revenue over the last 3 to 8 years... even successful talkers like KGO are off by around 30% since 2000, so this is quite generalized in all markets.

No, we are not talking about O&A and Carolla type talk. We are talking about KSL and WOKV and similar who have started simulcasts, or WIBC that just jumped to FM with traditional news talk formats.

There is nothing we can do to make two generations of Americans who grew up on FM listen to AM. It just does not happen in most cases.

 

[TVC1500]

David:

I am just scratching my head about your statement on beating KFI with your own talk station.
I won't even dignify that one.

18-49 is just not a factor in most AM or FM spoken word stations, period. Your burial of the AM frequency is premature. By the time that happens FM will be irrelevant, as everything will move
to broadband. Transmitters will become irrelevant, that is already happening in television, why should it be any different with radio?

What's problematic with your analysis is the real problem is not AM or FM. It is in the content.
Compelling hosts are difficult to find. A trained monkey can cobble a lineup made up of Rush, Hannity, etc. But rarely is that opportunity available.

Music stations are basically f*****ed, as consumers prefer to create their own play-lists. Spoken word will play an ever important role, and yes eventually we will see more FM based stations.

Like I said it's wonderful if you have an extra facility to move or as someone suggested to simulcast
a station, but to pull the plug on a successful AM to simply move the brand to FM would likely reap very little improvement in revenue and end up with you getting you butt bounced out on the street by corporate.

You're a big shot, put your money where you mouth is. Put together an FM spoken word station. Since you're such an accomplished talk programmer you should easily be able to convice your company to
make a move. I will be the first to congratulate you.

 

[davideduardo]

I am just scratching my head about your statement on beating KFI with your own talk station.
I won't even dignify that one.

Well, the achievement got me the #3 programmer of the year for 1997 in Radio Ink and a three page spread in R&R just for starters.

http://www.davidgleason.com/KTNQ-1995.htm

We had a number of books where we were ahead of KFI and David Hall in that era.

18-49 is just not a factor in most AM or FM spoken word stations, period.

It is if they want to continue to get buys. Pick nearly any major old line talker, like KMOX or WCCO and they are off in 25-54 numbers and off in revenues. And when you put the formats on FM, like WIBC and WOKV recently, the 25-54 goes top 5 and the 18-49 generally does too.

Your burial of the AM frequency is premature. By the time that happens FM will be irrelevant, as everything will move to broadband. Transmitters will become irrelevant, that is already happening in television, why should it be any different with radio?

Yeah, radio is portable. TV ain't. The failure of the Clearwire Sprint deal puts broadband deployment waaaaay behind schedule, probably not till 2012 or later to build the infrasturcture.

AM is severely ageing. In some markets, the AM share is in single digits. Big markets like Houston have only 12 shares 12+, and under 4 shares for the band in 18-34. With today's huge metros and high noise levels, there are only about 220 viable AMs in the top 100 markets... stations that put a usable signal over 80% of the population day and night. Some markets have none, in fact. And folks under 50 grew up on FM, not AM. They don't generally use it.

What's problematic with your analysis is the real problem is not AM or FM. It is in the content.
Compelling hosts are difficult to find. A trained monkey can cobble a lineup made up of Rush, Hannity, etc. But rarely is that opportunity available.

Gee, KSL moved to a simulcast and the 35.54 more than doubled. Same lineup. Those under-55's just did not like AM, but apparently love the format if offered on FM.

Like I said it's wonderful if you have an extra facility to move or as someone suggested to simulcast
a station, but to pull the plug on a successful AM to simply move the brand to FM would likely reap very little improvement in revenue and end up with you getting you butt bounced out on the street by corporate.

The stations that have moved or done simulcasts are reporting large revenue gains. The ones that did not are the hardest hit in this bad economy, as many AM n/t stations were very dependent on refi, financial, and auto business, all of which is either off or gone.

You're a big shot, put your money where you mouth is. Put together an FM spoken word station. Since you're such an accomplished talk programmer you should easily be able to convice your company to
make a move. I will be the first to congratulate you.

I am talking mostly of moving existing AM talk formats to FM. There is enough evidence out there to convince any operator (besides Cox and CCU and Bonneville and Emmis among others) to do this now if they have a talk franchise worth saving.

In the kinds of markets I deal with, it's already happening. Most of the talk shares in the world's largest market are on FM, and the demos are amazingly young. Unfortunately, there are now 6 or 7 of these so the shares are fragmented but talk in the future belongs on FM.

 

[Garrett]

Rumor or not, it is a bad idea.
Mark Twain said: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

That putting KFMB AM on FM would work falls under that last one!

In every instance where an AM traditional talker with at least mid-range ratings has either moved to FM or done an AM FM simulcast, the under-55 listenership in both cume and share as increased very significantly.

Since, in the larger markets, life depends on getting agency buys, 25-54 is critical. The erosion of 25-54 shares for AM talkers as the listeners aged and under-55's refused to listen to AM has caused almost every significant top 100 market talker to lose significant revenue over the last 3 to 8 years... even successful talkers like KGO are off by around 30% since 2000, so this is quite generalized in all markets.

No, we are not talking about O&A and Carolla type talk. We are talking about KSL and WOKV and similar who have started simulcasts, or WIBC that just jumped to FM with traditional news talk formats.

There is nothing we can do to make two generations of Americans who grew up on FM listen to AM. It just does not happen in most cases.

Are you suggesting that Midwest TV could eventually turn off their AM entirely and migrate to 100.7?

 

[RadioFixerCLE]

Are you suggesting that Midwest TV could eventually turn off their AM entirely and migrate to 100.7?

I wouldn't be surprised if that starts happening in the next 20 years...maybe sooner.

 

[davideduardo]

Are you suggesting that Midwest TV could eventually turn off their AM entirely and migrate to 100.7?

Not immediately. Simulcast for a while, then sell or broker the AM.

 

[TVC1500]

Don't hold your breath.