KGO Changes?

[MikeAmatori]

...and then they will discover the AM band...

<sarcasm monitor on> Yeah, in our dreams. Our getting very lonely dreams. If Arbitron is right in stating, as it has, that Persons-Using-Radio declines in the last 8 years equals a loss of 17% of the radio audience, that 80 percent of radio listening is to FM and the other 20% (with a healthy does from that 80 percent not listening only to radio, but to other means,) is true ... it doesn't take a mental giant to see that AM is dropping off the charts faster than a Fergie hit.

With the even faster introduction of new modes of "entertainment" and media choices, 51% of the radio audience as we know it today will be mostly non-existent in 15 years from now. Of that, you can well bet that as gen Y turns 35-40 in that time frame, they're attention spans that are obviously dwindling today will not become any better and their choices will be more personal and immediate.

And for that which they don't know now (AM Radio) will become, out of that 49% of listeners available ... largely non-existent whatsoever. And for those thinking that it won't affect the small markets ... think again. The proliferation of outside syndication and cost cutting will reduce the radio landscape markedly ... and AM will become a huge vast wasteland.

FM could make it until then ... but it will be so generic and "safe" (such as how AM started its rapid slide inside of five-to-ten years,) that that band will have similar problems by then as well.

The alternatives will be quick to materialize; much faster than they were thirty years ago. Twenty years ago. Ten years ago ... even five years ago.

It's going to be a wild ride in the next decade for radio. 60 year olds will be 70. 50 year olds will be 60. 40 year olds will be among the uncounted and uncared for...and below 40 ... they just won't care, because they will, literally, be held "to their own devices."

Think about how change has affected this industry and how quick that change has established itself to put us in the shape and condition we're in now.

With conditions as they are ... remember, KGO has seen change, too, through that time, and is not immune to more. The loss of the 49ers may have been just one of the early signs of change. There will be more to come.

Just a couple of things for clarification. The 49ers was a Pure Money Thing. Just to be clear, it was going to be a bad deal for the station which at the time was paying a little north of 5 million a year for what turned out to be a 2-14 season. When Luckoff had an opening in the contract to re-negociate, The niners wanted even more money, he said no. KNBR et all needs to spread it over 3 stations to make it work due to the Giants Schedule, Plus the niners sell much of their own time now, so there is even less for the station to recover. The good news for KNBR is thay can just add all kinds of Niners Programing to help cover their costs. That would have been a problem for a NewsTalk, not a problem for a sports talk.

Bay to Breakers, A one day event that was costly to do, KGO covered it as a News/Sports event. Lots of bodies and
locations. Now, If you can get the rights for a decent price its an OK deal. But KGO did not get to sell advertising for the race, that was sold by the promoters that also got KGO inventory to run their ads. They also held the rights and sold those to KGO. (It's been the ING Bay to Breakers for about 3 years) This year they wanted even more money for the rights, They also wanted their spots to run on KGO, no upside for the station there, so, they said no thank you. It was a bad deal so we walked.

Is radio in trouble, Hell Yes . The 12-18 year olds who were the end users when I was growing up, and who would listen to radio throughout their lives are almost gone. Todays 12-18's have The Internet, IPods, Cel-phones, Gameboys...you name it. They all help pull people away from the Radio. So many choices, and depending on what you call content, so much content, who the hell needs radio...or for that matter newspapers. The 2 mediums that depend on Circulation and Listeners that can be counted so we/they can go to the advertisers and ask for money because we deliver these many ears or eyes who may see/hear their ads.

KGO has reached a time where the "Prestiege" of having a team or event "Just to say we have it" has passed. If it no longer makes business sense we just don't do it. And that started long before Citadel, and Disney, that started with CapCities.

As for the small markets, They are Gone. It's Satelites and Syndication everywhere. I guess the good news is that
there are so few places to get a career in radio started that soon even the broadcasters will be gone.

Now, Just a point of Personal Opinion. I have been in broadcasting for about 38 years. I've been a listener my whole life.The one thing that always draws me in is superior content. That is the one thing that is so sadly lacking in/on the radio. It has been sanitzed and lobottomized by Corporations, Legal Depts. and Managers with no ideas. No one takes a chance anymore. If you try and fail, well, at least you tried. Now Reasearch sez...do this, read the card, open the 55 gallon drum with the format in it, add call letters and hope for the best. The bar has been set so low, the bigest danger is you'll stub your toe on it.

I have had the honor of working with most of the best Air Talent and B'cast management in the Bay Area. Some are gone, many have retired a few are still fighting the good fight. For them, I will continue to create content to be proud of untill it's time for me to go. They are the reason I got into this business, they are the reason I stay, they are the reason I fight the good fight too. KGO Radio survives in this enviorment because it is somthing special. AND It's aging, AM radio listeners recognize it. If the Digikids don't recognize it, I'm sorry for them. Perhaps when they are ready for
answers and ideas there will be someplace to get it.

 

[davideduardo]

What about content? The CBS Free-FM experiment proved without content, there is no audience. Thank you gameon. And now there is No Free FM...well I think the KLSX LA survived.

The programming was horrible, so it failed. But when traditional news talk moves to FM, it generally picks up, rapidly, new 35-54 listeners with the same content. the idea that there is an FM news talk format that is for 25 year olds is absurd. 35-54's, in considerable numbers, do want conventional news tlak, Rush and all, but they do not want to have to put up with AM sound to get it... so they do not listen.

The fact that KGO is Live and Local is what makes them better able to respond instantly to what is happening in the Bay Area.

The fact that it has one of only 3 signals that cover the whole market helps a lot, too.

KGO Rates are high because the Ratings are good. Those YOUNG time buyers are also looking for Cost Per Point when they place advertising. And KGO's is high, so they go where they can get the best deal. Many of our competitors will slash rates just to get the business away from us.

Time buyers, irrespective of age, are looking for CPP in a specific demo the client has requested based on the marketing strategy they defined prior to going to the ad agency. If the demo does not include 55+, it is hard for KGO to meet the CPP goals

I guess the good news is that all those young folks will start to age...Start having kids, start to buy houses, start to worry about taxes, start to be afraid that their kids my have to go to war...and then they will discover the AM band...

No, they won't. The average age of the AM listener goes up one year every 18 months. Very few persons who get to 35 to 40 suddenly decide they are going to use AM, no matter what the content, as it does not sound right... or good.

As AM shares decline, markets that are defined by the Arbitron 55/15 rule will possibly be redefined to smaller geographic areas and at that time FM will achieve signal parity and a move to FM of a traditional news talk staiton can take the 25-54 from KGO... just like what happened to legendary KDKA in Pittsburgh when a good n/t came to FM there and killed them!

 

[DavidKaye]

As for the small markets, They are Gone. It's Satelites and Syndication everywhere. I guess the good news is that
there are so few places to get a career in radio started that soon even the broadcasters will be gone.

Free terrestrial radio won't entirely disappear, just as furniture makers, typewriter repairmen, and blacksmiths haven't disappeared. Radio will remain, but in a diminished and rarified form. I foresee this: Most stations simply shut down (as KWUN did a dozen years ago). The big ones that remain will gradually shift toward very specific demos that require reach. I see formats such as all-traffic and all-business news being typical in the larger cities and the rest of the country being repeaters for the big city stations.

I think CNET Radio was way ahead of its time.

 

[RadioStarOne]

KGO is losing ground in the ratings because there is just to damn many News/Talk stations on the AM band in the bay area! The pie can only be cut into so many slices guys! You think KGO has got problems? Then I suggest you take a look at KTRB's ratings! Oh! I forgot they don't have any ratings! Get the point yet? From day one I've asked the question, How many stations flipping to News/Talk will it take to knock KGO off the top of the ratings list? The time is near and all the News/Talk stations are going to suffer. If these managers and owners are so cheap as to not promote the fact that they are there to a younger audience by making themselves visible to that younger generation then they deserve to rot on the radio vine. At least KGO is making an effort at the present time to get the word out to new listeners by asking listeners to tell a friend and win a thousand dollars to share.

 

[XL1000]

I just checked the Pittsburgh ratings: KDKA-AM ( News Talk Information) 8.0 Share currently.
Boy if that's getting killed a lot of music stations would like to be in that position
While CPP is important, successful talk stations do a lot of direct business with non
traditional advertisers.

As a very successful consultant friend of mine says contemporary music
stations are f*****ed. Too many alternatives with social networks, I-Pods, cell phones, &
IM. A good signal AM or FM Talker has twice as much inventory to sell per hour as music
stations and an audience base that has dollars to spend. BTW for those programming
various Hispanic formats I would be quite concerned about PPM, and not so focused on
aging N/T demos.

Content is king. We've seen a lot of FM Talkers bail out recently, and not all were Free
FM type stations. Its no accident that Free FM failed, random conversations, and edgy humor
will not capture market share alone.

As far as AM or FM, in the future it will be less relevant, about as key as TV transmitters are today. Broadband will replace AM-FM listening. Everyone will be on fairly equal ground, so let the games begin.

 

[SFStatic]

XL is correct, it's the content. BTW, all sorts of young music stations are getting killed by alternatives. I disagree with DK above. The CNET model was DOA, and always will be on AM. There just aren't enough young techies that are even aware of AM...that's why they never showed up with any ratings. On broadband, however...different story. You have to go where the listeners for your type of content are with your content!

 

[paulsecic]

Gameon and Oaktree...

Thank you for your thoughts. They are on the money. The theory that moving talk to FM is gonna cure the
younger demo problem is very popular. However, if the programing remains the same, why would they go there? Oh I know...Stereo, better audio quality...is that the theory? Or the "They don't know what AM is" explination.

WELL

What about content? The CBS Free-FM experiment proved without content, there is no audience. Thank you gameon. And now there is No Free FM...well I think the KLSX LA survived.

If someone 18-34 0r 25-49 wants to listen to Fergie and not hear about Iraq or taxes, then I guess that
Talk On Any Band is in trouble.

The fact that KGO is Live and Local is what makes them better able to respond instantly to what is happening in the Bay Area. The larger portion of the ABC/Citadel stations are mostly syndicated National
talk. It saves them money on one hand BUT costs them in these ways...They don't own ALL the inventory to sell. The Ratings are not as high which cost them on Rates.

KGO Rates are high because the Ratings are good. Those YOUNG time buyers are also looking for Cost Per Point when they place advertising. And KGO's is high, so they go where they can get the best deal. Many of our competitors will slash rates just to get the business away from us.

I guess the good news is that all those young folks will start to age...Start having kids, start to buy houses, start to worry about taxes, start to be afraid that their kids my have to go to war...and then they will discover the AM band...

That woman who subbed for Dr. Bill last was awsome. You need to pick her up!

 

[oaktree]

Pat Thurston.

I think she drinks fire-water before she goes on the air.

I heard her last night and read her detailed blog and she's ... different, to say the least. Not afraid to "say it as she see it," but not necessarily "as it really is."

Interesting, though, that while a big success for a time, she's been terminated for being so outspoken because she rubs ownership and management the wrong way. A fire-brand.

One aside I read about her last night, that she's so bold, that on her resume, she even lists her bra size... (True!)

 

[radiomayor2]

if you do the math.....10 mil divided over those markets.....that's not a lot of money.....

especially if those stations are beating the market.....

Mickey won't leave until MICKEY wants to .....he is truly one of the best managers in radio and, i believe, the best n/t manager in the business......

EVEN IF HE IS A DIEHARD MICHIGAN FAN !!!!!!!!!!!!.....

 

[DavidKaye]

I disagree with DK above. The CNET model was DOA, and always will be on AM. There just aren't enough young techies that are even aware of AM...that's why they never showed up with any ratings. On broadband, however...different story. You have to go where the listeners for your type of content are with your content!

When I first heard CNET I posted on ba.broadcast about it. I said that the format would fail, not because they wouldn't have advertisers out of the gate, but because they wouldn't have enough listeners to make it work long term. Also, CNET leased time 24/7 on KNEW to accomplish this, so it was not in KNEW's interest to promote the thing. AND it was done when KNEW was still 5kw.

But I think that in a different world, a new world where all the lower powered stations have gone out of business and only the 50kws are left to punch through the QRM and get reach, this scenario could work.

But again, the key is appealing to a rarified audience in the same fashion that blacksmiths shoe horses for the rich folks who can afford horses and typewriter repairmen fix machines for those people obstinate enough to pay premium prices for the privilege.

In other words, I see the future of terrestrial radio as not broadcasting but narrowcasting. However, in order to narrowcast effectively it would be necessary to network many stations together to reach enough audience.

Or if a regional version of wi-fi comes available or wi-fi is ganged in the way that cell service is (but more reliably) and includes rural and highway service, I can see that this would totally eliminate any use for AM or FM at all. It's plausible that this could happen within 5 to 7 years.

 

[LKellerIII]

"Pat Thurston. I think she drinks fire-water before she goes on the air. I heard her last night and read her detailed blog and she's ... different, to say the least. Not afraid to "say it as she see it," but not necessarily "as it really is."

Somebody on this thread (uh - me, perhaps), mentioned the late unlamented KPIX-FM. Pat Thurston was on that station, and she was one of the few good things about it. The other was the San Francisco based female physician (can't think of her name at the moment) who also did segments for ABC TV news. KPIX actually did add some good local content toward the end, but it was too late by then.

 

[rickradio]

The other was the San Francisco-based female physician (can't think of her name at the moment)

Dr. Nancy Snyderman, Llew?

 

[LKellerIII]

"Dr. Nancy Snyderman..?"

Yes - thanks, Rick.