'Jimmy Kimmel Live!' is returning to ABC, but not without complications.
deadline.com
It's amazing how media reporters don't understand media anymore:
Even if it’s only a few days, the industry could be in fairly uncharted territory given the sheer volume of the holdouts. (For comparison with one notable past flashpoint, it’s worth recalling that when Ellen DeGeneres’ character came out as gay on the sitcom
Ellen in 1997, only
one ABC affiliate, in Birmingham, AL, refused to air the show despite widespread controversy.)
Once Disney decided it was airing Kimmel, it put Nexstar and Sinclair on a countdown timer to their maximum number of allowed pre-emptions (we don't know what that is).
Disney is not dealing with 66 individual TV stations. It's dealing with two group owners. The dynamics are the same as dealing with two single-station owners at this stage: "Start clearing Jimmy Kimmel Live in its 11:35/10:35 Central timeslot or you're in breach of your affiliation contract."
Whatever the legal divisions at Nexstar and Sinclair look like, they are no match for Disney's legal talent. The Mouse is famously litigious.
Let's say Nexstar and Sinclair say "no".
The badass move would be for Disney to
not shop Kimmel around in the markets, but to immediately file breach of contact suits against Nexstar and Sinclair, with daily compounding damages in the amount ABC has to lower its spot rate to compensate for the lack of clearances in 66 cities.
The suit is a slam-dunk, because Nexstar and Sinclair would be provably in breach. All it would take is one playback of Jimmy's original monologue for a jury whose minds aren't fried from too much FOX News (and that's what voir dire is for) to establish that Nexstar and Sinclair had no defense for their breach.
Thrown in various and sundry assorted damages (the show's reputation, since he didn't say what Nexstar and Sinclair suggested he did in their statements----yes, Jimmy could sue, too---but this would be ABC suing for damages to its half of the intellectual property) and Disney's attorney's fees (they'll make sure to have ALL their best litigators on something like this) and Disney could ruin both Nexstar and Sinclair. Maybe they don't get their deals done because the numbers no longer work.
Disney makes back whatever it lost in ad revenue, plus damages and in one stroke ends the dynamic where a network can be held hostage by two or three big affiliate groups.
Disney's market cap this morning is 201.8 billion. Nexstar's is 6.13 billion. Sinclair's is 1.02 billion.
My bet is Nexstar and Sinclair get Kimmel back on the air after milking the pre-emption as long as they can within the bounds of what the contract allows. They may even try to throw a smoke bomb by getting it back on in "bluer" markets quickly but holding off in "redder" ones and babbling something about "community standards", but if they let it get to court, they're idiots and they deserve what's coming to them.