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KMCQ deal

The smartest move here is for CC to simulcast Sports Radio. Demo will be 18-49 male, will expand it's reach, and pull the pants off of KIRO-AM.
 
My top three guesses: Bonneville, Entercom, Alpha, in that order. And that is me hoping and praying it's not Salem or Bustos (please no religious or spanish programming. PLEASE?!)

- CBS is trying to get out of all but the MAJOR markets. Seattle isn't a major market at #13.

- Clear Channel, as someone already said, is trying not to go bankrupt

- Christa, I just dont see it

- Fisher is not in the position to spend any more money on their radio properties.

- Sandusky, very unlikely as they hate to spend money

With that said, I think Bonneville has the money, they like the market and want to grow here, and they have a hole for formats.

Behind Bonneville is Entercom, just because they can spend the money and again, they like the market.

Finally, Alpha…and the only way this will happen is if Larry Wilson can get his hands on those CBS stations as well. He won’t expand into the market with one crap signal.

It’ll be interesting to see how it shakes out.
 
I'm disapointed that nobody here yet has guessed the possibility that one of the existing Seattle groups may not be purchasing the station at all, but may be pursuing an LMA. Think about it.. First can't make the big acquisition money they had hoped yet have to start recovering expenses. Perhaps you've all not heard the economic news lately, but no broadcasters have cash reserves available nor are the banks eager to lend toward aquisitions. An LMA would be a good choice for some group. No big cash or debt involved until a predetermined payday of x-times cash flow or walk away.
 
you might be right Guru, I have no details of the transaction, only a very strong belief that it has occurred and who is taking it over I suspect we'll hear something 'public' very soon.
 
Mr. Steenman, quite well connected, is certainly correct. The fact remains that First will likely loose big time on this deal. When they first knocked on the FCC's door for COL to Covington a clean FM stick in Seattle was worth $35-50MM. Spinning off $5M cash flow wasn't unreasonable at that time for decent FM. Today...it's anyone's guess. I can't imagine they are in this for less than $25MM - but that's a SWAG. Would love to hear anyone elses guesstimate.
 
TexasTom said:
Bongwater said:
Secondly, how much is 104.5 going to cost? I don't think it's going to be cheap. And it shouldn't be, considering how much was spent to get the station up here.

How much it cost for First Broadcasting to move KMCQ to Seattle/Tacoma is essentially irrelevant to what the station is worth today. First Broadcasting has been working this particular move in for a very long time, and since they started the effort, station valuations have dropped quite dramatically. The likelihood that they will ever get the return that they originally planned for on this particular investment is nil. The money that they spent is a sunk cost...it's gone, and shouldn't matter when they consider what sort of selling price they would accept for KMCQ.

What does -- or should -- matter are two things: 1. How First Broadcasting expects station valuations to change in the next few years, and 2. What else First Broadcasting could do with the money.

For an analogy, consider what you'd do with a house in Las Vegas that you bought three years ago for $500,000. Today it is worth, perhaps, $225,000. Are you going to wait to sell it until the value returns to $500,000...something that might not occur for twenty years? Probably not...if you can get rid of it, you will...and you'll accept the loss to get out from under a rotten investment.

Sure would hate to be an investor in First Broadcasting knowing that......
 
Bongwater said:
TexasTom said:
Bongwater said:
Secondly, how much is 104.5 going to cost? I don't think it's going to be cheap. And it shouldn't be, considering how much was spent to get the station up here.

How much it cost for First Broadcasting to move KMCQ to Seattle/Tacoma is essentially irrelevant to what the station is worth today. First Broadcasting has been working this particular move in for a very long time, and since they started the effort, station valuations have dropped quite dramatically. The likelihood that they will ever get the return that they originally planned for on this particular investment is nil. The money that they spent is a sunk cost...it's gone, and shouldn't matter when they consider what sort of selling price they would accept for KMCQ.

What does -- or should -- matter are two things: 1. How First Broadcasting expects station valuations to change in the next few years, and 2. What else First Broadcasting could do with the money.

For an analogy, consider what you'd do with a house in Las Vegas that you bought three years ago for $500,000. Today it is worth, perhaps, $225,000. Are you going to wait to sell it until the value returns to $500,000...something that might not occur for twenty years? Probably not...if you can get rid of it, you will...and you'll accept the loss to get out from under a rotten investment.

Sure would hate to be an investor in First Broadcasting knowing that......

@Bongwater> Stations are selling in this part of the country for little to nothing.. Just heard from a guy looking to sell an AM/FM Combo with Nexgen and pretty nice Txmitters for stick value alone..

I'd be interested to hear what the final sale price of KCMQ will be..
 
FMSteve said:
The smartest move here is for CC to simulcast Sports Radio. Demo will be 18-49 male, will expand it's reach, and pull the pants off of KIRO-AM.

FM Sports does not work most of the time especially when they have to compete with other Sports stations If they were the only sports stations then they might have a chance.
 
FM Sports does not work most of the time especially when they have to compete with other Sports stations If they were the only sports stations then they might have a chance.

Um, where have you been? There are a number of FM sports outlets, including 2 on FM in Boston with a combined 12+ share of nearly a 7 share...Sports FM is #2 12+ in Detroit...and CBS has newer FM sports in Dallas, Baltimore and just launched in Pittsburgh. FM is an emerging platform for all variations of talk.
 
raydioheadfm said:
FM Sports does not work most of the time especially when they have to compete with other Sports stations If they were the only sports stations then they might have a chance.

Um, where have you been? There are a number of FM sports outlets, including 2 on FM in Boston with a combined 12+ share of nearly a 7 share...Sports FM is #2 12+ in Detroit...and CBS has newer FM sports in Dallas, Baltimore and just launched in Pittsburgh. FM is an emerging platform for all variations of talk.

But check out WJFK-FM's ratings in DC... they switched from hot talk to sports, sure, a minor improvement from the hot talk format but still having terrible ratings.
 
The fact is that sports-talk stations never have great 12+ numbers, especially in the first year or two of a format change. Even then, the target demo is narrow yet lucrative; M18-34. Prior to the recession, S/T stations in large markets would own the agency beer and automotive buys.

I argue that it makes perfect sense to move S/T to FM. With AM listening 'aging-out' to 55+, it will be difficult if not impossible soon for a new or even established S/T station to reach their target demo without being on FM. That combined with some new factory equipped car radios eliminating AM tuners. If I were only on AM, I'd be very worried for my future.
 
You're spot on, Mr. Guru. There are lots of great catagories with huge marketing budgets out there to tap, and many of those catagories love to spend money on marketing and promotion.

I think the issue here is economic. A simulcast doesn't cost much compared to hiring a bunch of salaried talent. My feeling is that we're going to continue with a protracted recovery and the last thing a broadcasting company needs is to hire more workers. I have 5 friends that have lost jobs in the last 6 months...good jobs, too. And they were not in broadcasting all but one.

Someone brought up the idea of the LMA. That's a splendid choice to start out with, then follow up with a purchase when the economy stabilizes. The natural choice is to run KJR Sports Radio on both AM and FM.

That's a good thing because that will force the AM/FM KIRO simulcast and bring back the KIRO brand. During games and pre and post-play, KIRO can drop the FM and the AM will air the sports broadcasts. I call it the "hybrid" approach. KIRO can encode the AM PPM separately during those periods of sports play. This will drive Arbitron nuts but it has to be done and hopefully they will go aloing with this approach.
 
FMSteve said:
KIRO can encode the AM PPM separately during those periods of sports play. This will drive Arbitron nuts but it has to be done and hopefully they will go aloing with this approach.

This is not possible, even with simulcasts. The FM and AM must be encoded separately, then upon filing with Arbitron indicating a simulcast, the numbers of the two bands are combined. It is impossible to turn encoders on and off without violating Arbitron contract agreements (Unless it is to go to backup encoders of course)
 
And let's not forget that, yet once again.. KIRO has a contract with ESPN to carry x-amount of their programming and commercials. Those of you who long for the days of a simulcast, there is a better chance of a Robin and Maynard reunion held at KVI.

KJR-AM and their S/T would be the next logical station to migrate to an FM channel before it's too late. That being said; unless Clear Channel wins the Texas Lottery, I doubt they'll be in a liquid enough state to buy another property in Seattle. BUT an LMA would be something they could do without altering their ownership cap for future positioning when things get better.
 
Wasn't Clear Channel long time ago trying to buy KMCQ? Also, someone mentioning that KMCQ is trying to upgrade to Class C-1 from C-2 after they upgrade and move to Cougar mountain. Can someone verify with this. If KMCQ upgrade to Class C-1 then KDUX from Aberdeen have to downgrade and move to different frequency. KMNT Centralia have to move to KITI site. KKRV Winachee have to downgrade or relocate their transmitter. Is this correct?
 
Well, Morris owns both KKRV and KDUX, and KDUX would still cover the Grays Harbor market as an A.

Remember it was a few short years ago that Morris was willing to give up one of their 2 FMs in the Grays Harbor market in a shell game that was competing with First Broadcasting. Shell game lost.
 
raydioheadfm said:
Um, where have you been? There are a number of FM sports outlets, including 2 on FM in Boston with a combined 12+ share of nearly a 7 share...Sports FM is #2 12+ in Detroit...and CBS has newer FM sports in Dallas, Baltimore and just launched in Pittsburgh. FM is an emerging platform for all variations of talk.

I'm IN Boston (a suburb, actually--and I never left). I've heard rumors that Entercom might be putting a simulcast of WEEI (AM) on its 93.7 HD-3, but I have not heard that that has actually happened and since I don't have an HD radio, I can't check. Aside from that, AFAIK, the only sports-talk on FM here is WBZ-FM 98.5. The other sports-talk station (the original sports talk in this market) is WEEI (AM) 850. 100% leased-time WWZN (AM) 1510 carries the Red Sox en Espanol but, when it is in English (which is most of the time), 1510 is mainly not sports of any kind, (However, it does carry a wrestling talk show and a Poker show, I believe).
 
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