KOIT Tops KGO In 12+ Arbitrend

[BossRadioDJ]

We can't quote numbers here, and you know where to find 'em elsewhere, but the latest Arbitrend numbers for Nov/Dec/Jan show KOIT topping KGO by two-tenths of a point.

Is that okay to say, gentle moderator?

DJ

 

[LKellerIII]

Not that I'm some great prognosticator or anything... I predicted this would happen, though not until KTRB entered the talk format. Two factors are responsible, I think: (1) the constant drip-drip-drip of other talk stations. Though they may all have syndicated hosts and poor ratings, each little decimal of a rating point for KNEW, the Quake, etc. is one less for KGO. (2) I've got to think that a decent chunk of KFRC's Classic Rock audience switched over to KOIT.

It's also worth noting that the new 99.7 is not "MOViN" up in the ratings.

 

[DougR]

Got to remember, this is just a trend. When the real numbers come out, KOIT's Christmas music numbers will be gone and KGO will still be #1.

 

[sfsuradiodj]

happiness is a PPM in San Francisco.

So the ratings can actually be accurate, not just 1,500 cards filled out by old white women and at times a handful of men in the demos that matter....

The ratings system is a joke ... and if im not correct summer 08? we are gonna have PPM's??!?

 

[BossRadioDJ]

Got to remember, this is just a trend. When the real numbers come out, KOIT's Christmas music numbers will be gone and KGO will still be #1.

Very right, but I'm also wondering: could KGO dropping its noon newscast have had any impact?

We've been over this a thousand times -- these numbers are merely a "beauty contest" -- but I don't remember KGO being behind even in a 'Trend.

There will now be a short pause while everyone scrambles to correct me...

DJ

 

[LKellerIII]

"There will now be a short pause while everyone scrambles to correct me..."

No correction from me, BossRadio. Everybody knows it's a beauty contest, but KGO has claimed bragging rights to #1 for continually for over a quarter of a century. I think this trend will continue and the "real" ratings will reflect it. KGO's ratings have gone down about 3 ratings points in the last 5 years, and it's got to be because they have a lot more competition now, pitiful though it may be. KTRB may only get a .5 once it goes Talk, but a little bit of that will come out of KGO's share, and KOIT will continue to "trend-up" as long as the other music stations ignore light-rock and classic (non-R&B) hits. I guess there's The Bone, but a lot of people don't want hard rock like AC/DC and Led Zeppelin mixed in with their Beatles, Beach Boys, and Herman's Hermits - so they'll go with KOIT even if they have to suffer through Celine Dion.

Hate to rub it in (OK - no, I don't), but it seems like MOViN 99.7 is having a much worse debut in terms of ratings than Max FM, The Drive, The Bear, or any of the other "loser" formats we like to trash on this board.

 

[ricoontheradio]

happiness is a PPM in San Francisco.

So the ratings can actually be accurate, not just 1,500 cards filled out by old white women and at times a handful of men in the demos that matter....

The ratings system is a joke ... and if im not correct summer 08? we are gonna have PPM's??!?

The PPM tests to date have shown very similar results to diaries. It's just more detailed and timely that creates a PPM benefit.

Also, I believe PPM gets to SF in Jan 08.

 

[Jay F]

This is historic, although it's "just a trend". KGO has been #1 12+ in every book since 1979. My guess is that they will be able to keep this streak going, as others have mentioned KOIT will drop off it's Christmas music month before the Winter book is released.

The only large market station that has been #1 longer than KGO is KMOX/St Louis. I never remember a time when they haven't been #1 12+. But even they get close to getting beat each holiday season by their sister station soft AC KEZK.

Of course as others have said 12+ is just the beauty contest. In 25-54 KOIT has been ahead of KGO for awhile now. KOIT is often #1 25-54.

 

[davideduardo]

This is historic, although it's "just a trend". KGO has been #1 12+ in every book since 1979. My guess is that they will be able to keep this streak going, as others have mentioned KOIT will drop off it's Christmas music month before the Winter book is released.

In at least one trend KSOL has been #1. It's the books that count.

 

[eatspaste]

happiness is a PPM in San Francisco.
The ratings system is a joke ... and if im not correct summer 08? we are gonna have PPM's??!?

The initial PPM numbers in Philadelphia were released a few days ago - there wasn't anything really overly shocking (granted, Clear Channel wasn't encoding until just the other day and all of their stations got 0.0's). The lone country station in the market (WXTU) did much better with PPM, as did the AM sports station (WIP). The top two 12+ stations on paper (AC WBEB and all-news KYW) were still the top two stations with the PPM.

 

[davideduardo]

Re: PPM is not that different.

happiness is a PPM in San Francisco.

So the ratings can actually be accurate, not just 1,500 cards filled out by old white women and at times a handful of men in the demos that matter....

The ratings system is a joke ... and if im not correct summer 08? we are gonna have PPM's??!?

PPM starts in San Francisco (and the embedded San Jose and Santa Rosa markets) in April of 2008. The first of the 13 annual "reports" (there are no books any more) will come out in May, 2008 and another will be out every 28 days. We will also have weekly condensed reports, too.

Based on the last 5 years of testing in Philadelphia and Houston, there are no significant share changes in the PPM compared to the diary. In fact, the Philly tests three years ago showed that the diary is a perfectly good method for measurement.

The major change is that the PPM tracks both listening and hearing, so small incidents increase station cumes... incidents that would not get written in a diary. Cumes increase a lot, so TSL falls... but shares are pretty consistent between methods.

The reason for the PPM is not accuracy. It is a combination of factors. First, the difficulty in finding diarykeepers... nearly 8000 every 3 months in San Francisco. Compare that to the roughly 2700 meter panelists needed per year! Second is the advertiser request for more immediate delivery. The PPM can give a report that is as accurate as an 84 day diary survey every week!

While I know you exaggerate, the diary methodology attempts, and pretty successfully, to achieve proportionality in all demos, ethnicities, etc. In other words, there is no excess of "old ladies" vs. teens or 18-34 women and so on. Heck, they even get very good proportionality on Spanish dominant vs. English dominant Hispanics!