KQMV HOME RUN!

[mammaknowsbest]

MOVIN Home Run. Enough said.
KBKS, JACK and KBSG are over and ready for the next format flip. Still believe KNDD will be
the first to go. My predictions:

1. KBKS goes directly after KUBE and MOVIN with a Rhythmic CHR. More Hip-hop than KUBE
Complete staff retooling. KUBE will be squeezed with KBKS on the young end and MOVIN on the older end.

2. KNDD. Speaking of END, the station are format are over locally and nationally. These folks have left radio. Look for the END to fortify KIRO's 12+ numbers with a news simulcast. Plans are already rumored to be in the works.

3. KBSG. Look for the station to move Soft AC to challenge KRWM. Cheap and easy format to execute.
Add some personality and KRWM could be beaten. Station should have flipped to MOVIN, but missed the opportunity.

4. JACK will either go Free-FM providing talk on FM or adopt Country to attack WOLF. KMPS probably doesn't need the help given the last book, so Free-FM is the best bet.

5. MOVIN is for real. Staff will be added in 07 to stabalize the station. Remember that unlike JACK or POINT, MOVIN is current based with ever changing product to keep it fresh.


The rest of the market will stay the course, though WOLF needs to retool to stay alive. Staffing changes and mistakes hurt its early launch.

 

[e-menace]

KBSG is still top 10 and you aren't. Movin made gains but it fell far short of Wolf's meteoric rise that continues in the top 10 as well.

KBKS, again, who?

KNDD, same song.

Movin is still talk and no substance for all the hype afforded it. Simply a louder Jack with a slightly longer life.

 

[djdan]

Wait for four-book. Enough said.
I agree that JACK and WOLF had better launches that MOVIN. So did THE POINT and THE BEAT.
All are either gone or on the way down.

Still curious what format 96.5 could jump to next??? KNDD is rumored to be ready to simulcast KIRO, but why?
KIRO is on the rise and was number two in morning drive in the latest trend. Not sure what KBKS will do. My bet is they stay the course. There is plenty of evidence that Mainstream CHR's work nationally, not sure what is wrong here. Four-book is not good. Nice work KMPS and KZOK. Both stations looked rock solid in the four book and in the latest trend. Ichabod, Rivers, Kent and Alan all had fine books as well.

The more things change...the more they stay the same in Seattle.

 

[Shark]

MOVIN Home Run. Enough said.

Based on what I've seen, I'll give them a ground rule double but not a home run.

 

[nodisclosureguy]

Based on what I've seen, I'll give them a ground rule double but not a home run.

Then you obviously haven't seen the demos.

#2 Women 18-34
#5 Women 25-54

#3 (tie) Adults 18-34
#6 (tie) Adults 25-54

 

[yoyo205]

Based on what I've seen, I'll give them a ground rule double but not a home run.

Then you obviously haven't seen the demos.

#2 Women 18-34
#5 Women 25-54

#3 (tie) Adults 18-34
#6 (tie) Adults 25-54

I'm with Shark on this one.. I would consider a homerun #1 in all demos... But I must say I am impressed with what they've got, and taking KUBE down a full point. We'll see what the future holds.

I'm also amazed to see how many other stations/markets are picking up the 'Movin'' format with the original Movin station not even with two books under it's belt. Ahh to have that remote control from the movie 'Click' and fast forward ahead to see what happens

 

[e-menace]

Yeah, fast forward to 2007 and the next batch of cliche driven super niche formats!

ADHD? How about "pop"? Or "spaz", or "wink"!

Old? As in 38, which in radio-tv means elderly? How about "geezer" or "fogey" or "cranky".

Let the phrasology, gimmicking, panicky corporate power meetings and hopeless whoring to the fleeting trends begin!

 

[talkerdjdude]

KIRO

DJ Dan I'm surprised. You are the agency line guy with the "four book average" preaching, and yet you say KIRO is on the rise in the mornings and refer to the 12+ numbers to say they're number two in the morning. You should know no agency cares about the 12+ numbers and if you think KIRO's going to get any buys because of where their mornings are you're mistaken. Look at where they are 25-54? Do you see them? :-\ That's the real deal.

 

[AQH]

--> KUBE doesn't even target the entire 18-34 demo.

--> Has anyone here seen what KUBE did in the last summer book and compare it to this year?

I agree with an earlier posting, it looks more like a ground-rule double (steroid-induced with TV) than a home run. Show me what the station does without TV and in one year and let's chat.

 

[AQH]

Then you obviously haven't seen the demos.

#2 Women 18-34
#5 Women 25-54

#3 (tie) Adults 18-34
#6 (tie) Adults 25-54

And it's going down the same road that Jack traveled. Jack raised more skepticism about a station's long-term durability. Movin will have a bigger burden of proof to answer to in order to be declared legit.

 

[pbf1]

How about "pop"? Or "spaz", or "wink"!

Well...there was a "Blink" in NYC - and for a few minutes, posters were quick to rumor forthcoming cloning to other markets, including Seattle.

Can't see anyone bringing THAT back, though. It's not like anyone names their boat "Titanic" anymore!

 

[sleepyhead]

1. Movin will torch the library and bring in marginal talent.

2. Kiss will spin the hits, torch the re-currents and always leave the talent looking for a gig at stations like Movin'

3. Jack will end up keeping a place on the dial. Its death is still at least 18-24 months away.

4. The End, as with the entire alternative approach, is clueless.

5. Fisher will have the gonads to exploit the hole and back it up. Just look at what they did with KOMO-1000.

6. The Wolf actually has a chance to succeed. KMPS will continue to do so as well.

7. KISW could lose it. CC can kick there ass.

8. KBSG waits on JACK and CC before they make a move. Those demos are starting to suck at 97.3.

9. KZOK is perfectly positioned..for now.

10. The Mountain, as with the entire AAA approach, is clueless.

While folks like Alan Burns make waves with "new" dynamics, one can take a look at what KKWF has done, creating something very fresh in what's really a somewhat stale format. You can't fault Burns however. Any chart-head could've figured this hole (especially at 92.5 with Sandusky). It took a high priced consultant, instead of a research oriented APD, to get Movin' going. Just wait untill that consultant rakes in some clients while toasting the format.

Kind of like Jack. We havn't heard those songs for awhile and now we're gonna pay someone to get em' nice and crispy. In the meantime can someone serve me up something besides burnt toast.

 

[yoyo205]

1. Movin will torch the library and bring in marginal talent.

2. Kiss will spin the hits, torch the re-currents and always leave the talent looking for a gig at stations like Movin'

3. Jack will end up keeping a place on the dial. Its death is still at least 18-24 months away.

4. The End, as with the entire alternative approach, is clueless.

5. Fisher will have the gonads to exploit the hole and back it up. Just look at what they did with KOMO-1000.

6. The Wolf actually has a chance to succeed. KMPS will continue to do so as well.

7. KISW could lose it. CC can kick there ass.

8. KBSG waits on JACK and CC before they make a move. Those demos are starting to suck at 97.3.

9. KZOK is perfectly positioned..for now.

10. The Mountain, as with the entire AAA approach, is clueless.

While folks like Alan Burns make waves with "new" dynamics, one can take a look at what KKWF has done, creating something very fresh in what's really a somewhat stale format. You can't fault Burns however. Any chart-head could've figured this hole (especially at 92.5 with Sandusky). It took a high priced consultant, instead of a research oriented APD, to get Movin' going. Just wait untill that consultant rakes in some clients while toasting the format.

Kind of like Jack. We havn't heard those songs for awhile and now we're gonna pay someone to get em' nice and crispy. In the meantime can someone serve me up something besides burnt toast.

I agree with pretty much everything you said. If KFNK were to get a stronger signal, they would blow KISW out of the water. The summer book ratings for KFNK were insane for the south sound! Great job to Raizin and the Monkey staff.

Regarding the Wolf, yeah they will do very well 12-24. If you look at the demo numbers, they completely bombed in pretty much every demo over 25. If they want to bring back the 'older' demos and even come close to beating KMPS, they are going to have to get rid of the childish talent, and 'mature' a bit.

Which reminds me, since the summer book, I have yet to see a post from Fitz

 

[djdan]

Okay I'll play the game:

MOVIN: Begins dropping off in January, nine months after launch. Is peaking right now. Airstaff will only kill it faster, just like THE POINT.

JACK: Tough call. Cheap to run, but terrible ratings. They will either blow it up by January or hang on one more year until the four book numbers are gone.

KBKS: Complete staff revamp, but stay Mainstream CHR with a lean toward KUBE.

KNDD: Gone. Rumor of KIRO simulcast on 107.7 is interesting. I believe the news station in Washington DC, New Orleans and Phoenix all just started simulcasting their AM signal on FM.

KIRO: Still beats KOMO on four book and in the last phase of summer moving up again. Simulcast on 107.7 will draw younger news crowd.

KBSG: No change. They will ride it out for another year.

WOLF: May revamp staff, focus more on music sweeps. Has been effective in markets like Dallas, Houston and Portland. Note KWJJ is now number one in Portland, but it took three years to beat KUPL. Entercom vs Infinity too.

All other stations will not change format or staff.

 

[TakeItFromMe]

I agree almost 100% with Sleepy and DjDan. Four book rules. MOVIN has launched strong, and will slip next Winter. That is how a new station begins. You jump up at first, then back and then up. KWJJ flipped to WOLF about three years ago when Entercom bought them. They went up, then down, but now beat long-time Infinity owned KUPL (A KMPS clone). Even with a bad book, WOLF is still top ten 25-54 and better on a three-book average. Fall will see another rebound. Two steps forward, one back and then VICTORY. MOVIN will have the same situation. JACK may be in trouble unless they add talent and take it to the next level. I still think that WOLF and MOVIN are the real deal and will have a long impact because the stations play current music keeping the stations fresh, continue to advertise and are adding talent, not relying on a jukebox. These are long-term players. KNDD is over, so is KBKS. If KNDD simulcasts KIRO, would KBKS lean more alternative or active rock to compliment the younger end of KZOK? Just a thought. Andy Savage and Bill Ried are still under contract at Infinity and could make 106.1 a monster alternative leaning active rock station. JACK could also go back to its KROCK alternative days. Yowzers!!!

 

[OttoM]

KNDD: Gone. Rumor of KIRO simulcast on 107.7 is interesting. I believe the news station in Washington DC, New Orleans and Phoenix all just started simulcasting their AM signal on FM.

Don't bet the farm on that happening, Dan. While Bonneville flipped a number of its poorer-performing FMs to AM simulcasts, many of the AMs were signals with poor coverage. Entercom ain't about to waste a full-market FM simulcasting an AM that already has a strong signal day and night.

Expect either Entercom or Infinity to tap the Hispanic population growth in the state and put a Spanish music format on in Seattle. 99.3 doesn't count as it isn't a full-market signal.

 

[nodisclosureguy]

While Bonneville flipped a number of its poorer-performing FMs to AM simulcasts, many of the AMs were signals with poor coverage.

I don't necessarily disagree with your point about KIRO, but your characterization of Bonneville's moves is off the mark. The purpose of Boneville's FM simulcasts is to bring a younger audience to their spoken word programming. They have researched this heavily and found that many 25- to 44-year-olds won't even sample a spoken word station on the AM dial but are more open to listening to one that is available on FM even when the on-air content is the same.

 

[OttoM]

I don't necessarily disagree with your point about KIRO, but your characterization of Bonneville's moves is off the mark. The purpose of Boneville's FM simulcasts is to bring a younger audience to their spoken word programming. They have researched this heavily and found that many 25- to 44-year-olds won't even sample a spoken word station on the AM dial but are more open to listening to one that is available on FM even when the on-air content is the same.

I never said that lowering demos wasn't one of Bonneville's goals in simulcasting news on FM.

You assert that younger demos are sampling AM programming on the FM signals. That may be true in Phoenix or Salt Lake, but here in Seattle, things aren't the same. Do you HONESTLY believe Gregg & Jane, Dave Ross and Dori Monson will pull in 25-44 year olds? Maybe a slight increase in the upper demos - but twentysomethings aren't going to go for that kind of news/talk programming on FM.

Also - remember that we had FM Talk for about 11 years (coincidentally, that format was put on the air by Bonneville) until Entercom flipped the Buzz to Country. If FM Talk was such a good format - why hasn't any other station picked it up already?