KMGX said:
I suppose there’s an old adage that applies here. “There are lies, damn lies and statistics.” Anyone may be able to bolster their side of an argument depending upon which sets of statistics they quote, and then to dismiss the other side, you simply quote the statistics that suit you while discrediting the ones that you don’t agree with;
The issue here is that there is only one source for data on radio listening, Arbitron. You cited an article that said young adult (18-24) listening was down. And you cited the analysis on a webswite designed to help a large newspaper sell space.
First, Arbitron only gathers two pieces of data from each respondent: stations listened to (cume) and time they listened (TSL). From this, share, cume share, AQH persons, etc., are mathematically derived.
To know how many people use radio you have to look at cume. The figure you cited was based on TSL.
To know how long a person uses radio each week requires using TSL for the market. The article used TSL data to illustrate radio usage... a common error by folks who are close to clueless on radio audience measurement.
Unlike the newpaper, I have Arbitron data for many markets. I took one market as an example, and then verified with 5 more top 10 markets. I looked in 1998 and in 2006 for two pieces of data: the market total Cume share and the market total TSL. There is no more basic data.
Market cume share gives the percentage of the 12+ universe that listens to radio. As mentioned, the change from 1998 to 2006 was less than -2.5% in 18-24. Market TSL gives the weekly average time spent listening to radio during the week per person. The difference in 18-24 is -7.7%.
Since this data is shown automatically in Maximi$ser as "Market Total" in each table, there is no more basic data and, more than that, there is no other source for this data.
You work in the terrestrial radio industry by (or have)
I do and have for 48 years.
and your objectivity is in question,
Only by you. Most of us in radio in decision making capacities are paid to and want to present reality. The problem is that you are trying to condem radio based on false usage data, false data on revenue, and even false data on the profitability of the largest radio company. I challenge you with the real root, source data and your answer is to question credibility... and this is not about my credibility as I am only citing Arbitron (usage) RAB (revenue) and the SEC (Clear Channel earnings filings).
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All of that being said, these mediums(sic), satellite, internet, and others are all eating into the share of listeners, whether you chose to accept that premise or not. One day, that share will be greatly cut into. [/quote]
First, the radio usage figures in 18-54 are only off about a percent over 10 years. So the blythly say that shares are eroding wtihout qualifying the amount is alarmist.
Second, when there is a truly viable alternate delivery method, raido will be the predominant content provider. The impediment for all will be the potential for restrictions on digital delivery systems reintroduced to Congress which would make all digital delivery subject to record industry restrictions and fees.
CBS lost $9 billion in Q4 2005—that was after they split from Viacom, some of that was television, some was radio… radio revenues were down 11%… that was before the disaster that is FREE-FM. RAB reports that radio revenue was down for the year 2006 (ending in October). National revenue down 19%!
CBS and Viacom split in December, 2005. The charges you speak of were accounting charges by the parent, called Viacom, to facilitate the spin off of the smaller CBS... to the extent that they restated earnings for 2004 and 2005 on an unconsolidated basis to facilitate analysis. CBS became the tracking stock, and a new Viacom stock was created. For this reason, the accounting charges caused by non-operational issues related to the spin-off were attributed to the CBS issue.
Again, your data is wrong.
Actually, by year end, radio was up. National is enormously volatile, and was affected mostly by the problems at the Big 3 automakers last year... and auto retail was off also because of the same crisis in Detroit.
Incorrect. Stations are now fined for “indecency”, with the FCC threatening another long list of fines to come down soon.
Most of us in the industry actually refer to one of the terms... when we mean both. Sorry you don't understand that the only regulated area is that of indecency/obscenity and that my point is that most people don't find the thypes of programming that lies in this area to be of any interest. It's a non-issue.
Incorrect again. The internet stations I’ve been involved with for the past several years all turn a nice profit, this is in spite of the efforts by the NAB, RIAA and others to impose ridiculously high royalty charges against net broadcasters. Just paid a bill over $6000 to sound exchange… and yet, still turning a profit. Of course, those profits don’t compare to some terrestrial stations that bill $100,000 a month, but your initial statement is still false.
A rated market station that bills $100 k a month is very small... 13 out of 17 FMs in Boise, which is not even in the top 100 markets, billed that much in 2005. You seem to have a really limited understanding of broadcasting, regulation and even the equity markets...