KVI "GREATEST HITS" FORMAT NOT A HIT WITH LISTENERS

[equalinercard]

There's no logical reason to believe KVI as an AM oldies station will ever do much better than a .5 share. And 25-54 even less.

Remember back in the early 90's when the corporate proponents of consolodation told us how one company owning more stations would be better for the industry and better for the public?

Well, you're seeing the results.

Now the corporate owners have a new solution: loosen the regulations so we can own more stations.

So is your claim that somehow if multi-station ownership had not been allowed, that AM stations would somehow be just as popular as say, thirty years ago? Really! If so, I fail to understand how AM stations struggling in an age with other sources, increased audio quality and content availability have anything to do with multiple ownership. I argue that had an independent owner tried to do expensive talk, they wouldn't have lasted this long nor had any better luck than a group owner.

Ask Bill if he could afford to do live political talk and news these days. Oh wait, doesn't Bill own more than one station?

Not like Fisher is that large of an owner anyway with what, three stations in the market? How has owning three stations caused the decline of KVI?

Fisher is a small owner. Only 3 radio stations in the market. That's the problem.

Small owners can't compete when large national corporations own 8 signals in a market (and are lobbying for relaxed rules so they can own more) and own hundreds of stations nationwide.

It's exactly why so many owners, like Patsy Collins and Hearst, got out of the radio business. They saw two options: buy more stations and become giant owners or stay the same and be squeezed out. There is very little middle ground. And the middle ground is very ugly.

 

[TVradioguru]

So you're saying that because Fisher only owns three stations in the Seattle market, that is the reason KVI is not showing the promise of success that some on this board predicted after dumping talk and going oldies? I fail to see the connection. Or are you just against large ownership groups and looking for anything to correlate your point?

 

[equalinercard]

So you're saying that because Fisher only owns three stations in the Seattle market, that is the reason KVI is not showing the promise of success that some on this board predicted after dumping talk and going oldies? I fail to see the connection. Or are you just against large ownership groups and looking for anything to correlate your point?

KVI is not showing the promise because it's a stupid strategy.

If there were more local owners who were not faced with the daunting obstacle of mega-media corporations like Clear Channel and CBS, there would be more competition. And in such a world, I don't believe Fisher would have been dumb enough to throw away KVI.

 

[LITTLEBOYBLUE]

Seems like the problem is not big companies that own stations (too many or too few) -- it's the big companies tend not to have the cultural ability to be creative. There have been some exceptions along the way, of course ... GroupW had great news reputation, RKO General (mostly a tire company) did awesome Top-40 in "the day" with Drake as a creative force ... Gannett did a good job with KIIS-FM (and I think they still had KKBQ when it was cookin' as an AM/FM combo in Houston). But those companies chose people to focus on the radio product and make it strong.

My concern now is the mindset seems to be (a) look at your property that is on verge of failing; (b) go to the chart on the wall and look at the list of [no more than] 20 pre-defined formats; (c) bring in high-paid wingding to identify the market "hole" and choose from above pre-defined list; (d) implement according to bare-bottom cost model -- sharing the sourcing of the content from another market if necessary.

KVI, at least, is isolated from most of those factors because all that can happen in 30 minutes IF THEY WANTED TO because the players in same building; but they are competing with other signals that offer similar product at better quality. It would be VERY interesting if KMCQ were encoding just so we could have some idea what "the oldies" pie is (even though it's subject to interpretation with JACK, KJR, KMCQ, KVI, KIXI playlists all covering various interpretations of "yesterday hits"). With KMPS/WOLF, easier to see what the country "potential" is, etc. From there you have SOME opportunity to identify what you could do with that to differentiate yourself.

But to bring my point home and TRY to stick to "oldies" ... if you give an Oldies moniker to Clear Channel, their first course of action is to throw out the brand that was ESTABLISHED around 60's and 70's music in this market so they can go with a generic handle instead. It's "corporate think" ... not "common sense", and doesn't even have ANYTHING to do with ownership caps. Just all this "we do it this way FOR A REASON" horsewonkey that programming consultants like to spew to stay employed at the chain level.

 

[Bongwater]

...and let's veer off topic a second and read our friend, Mr. Hood.

http://blatherwatch.blogs.com/talk_...-blatherwatch-has-unplugged-its-ppm.html#more

"As 1 of just 1,317 (out of 3,453,000 media consumers) secretly chosen to carry the (PPM) receivers that tell the powerful radio ratings company what media are passing by our bodies every minute of every day......"

Now out of just 1,317 PPM wearing people, only 0.3% listened to KVI this last season.

We're NOT counting any of the 3,452,683 OTHER people of whom might be listening to KVI while the PPM wearers are not. Who may actually LIKE AM oldies. Or the Smooth Jazzers still pining for a return of KWJZ.

No. Just 1,317 people dictate what everybody else gets to hear on the radio.

...and then the "professionals" here wonder WHY those OTHER people are giving up on terrestrial radio? NEWS FLASH: They don't have to just stand there and take it anymore. Where's THEIR $15 and PPM each? I'm sure local Sirius/XM dealers probably had a great week after KWJZ flipped. And once they made that move (or to the internet, Music Choice, etc.), bye-bye. With the exception of emergency news, M's/Seahawks games and that traffic report they need, terrestrial radio has lost them for good.

1,317 people in a market of 3.5 million isn't a "sample", it's a JOKE.

 

[TVradioguru]

I think we all agree that the sample should be higher and probably will be for PPM measurement in the future. But I believe we can also agree that the data that is collected falls into the range of 70% or higher in accuracy, than that of diary respondents who filled out a diary at the deadline.

Second, no satellite radio did not see a huge uptick in subscribers after KWJZ in Seattle changed format. That is just a silly uninformed assumption. In fact, XM-Sirius did not beat their Q4 estimates, but are expected to see decline in Q1. Unlike satellite radio (much to Bong's chagrin) traditional free radio is seeing anywhere between a 3-15% grown as of Q4. And also unlike what Bong believes, that growth has been spurred through group owners using audience and music research in order to super-serve the demographic advertisers want to reach.

Even back when radio was the only portable way of listening to music, news and entertainment programming, stations didn't just lick their finger and hold it up into the breeze. The four basic formats found on successful radio operations were: News, Country-Western, Top-40, and some "full service". Now in an age of portable devices and easy access to music and spoken word content through IPods and Zunes, radio would and has needed to evolve to many more niche' formats.

If some old-timers suffering from revisionist history don't like the change, I for one would rather lose .0001% and gain 5% total audience and revenue any day.

 

[bossbill]

I made the assertion in another thread a while back that I didn't think a "sample" of a thousand or so out of three million was statistically significant. I'll stick to that. It is amazing that decision-makers are buying into this hogwash.

70% accuracy? What are we smoking here?

 

[TVradioguru]

Not smoking anything thanks. I leave that up to people like Bong..

My point being.. The majority of diary keepers were not accurate as to their responses by probably a 30% error rate, who either 'voted' for their favorite show or music genre, or waited till the last days of the survey deadline to fill out the diary rather than making an accurate recall of what they listened to, when. At least with PPM, there is little doubt to what the listener is actually listening to at a moments notice.

 

[SRP]

At least with PPM, there is little doubt to what the listener is actually listening to at a moments notice.

Actually, that should have read:

"At least with PPM, there is little doubt to what radio station is playing near a meter carrying participant at a moments notice."

Whether they're actually listening or not is a subject for debate in another thread.

 

[scott salvatori]

okay, so learn me up on this. who instigated the ppm rating system? who lobbyed for it, and how long did it take to make the change? was there any opposition at the time? and if so , who?

if ppm was not in effect, would KWJZ still be smooth jazzin, and KVI still be freedom 570'n? not to mention all the hundreds of other formats, and stations around the country that mysteriously saw ratings plunge, and brought on resets.

 

[SRP]

okay, so learn me up on this. who instigated the ppm rating system? who lobbyed for it, and how long did it take to make the change? was there any opposition at the time? and if so , who?

Google is your friend here. But try these two links for starters:
http://www.arbitron.com/portable_people_meters/ppm_randd.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portable_People_Meter

if ppm was not in effect, would KWJZ still be smooth jazzin, and KVI still be freedom 570'n? not to mention all the hundreds of other formats, and stations around the country that mysteriously saw ratings plunge, and brought on resets.

Some would say yes. PPM brought some drastic ratings shifts in Seattle.

 

[LITTLEBOYBLUE]

... would KWJZ still be smooth jazzin, and KVI still be freedom 570'n? not to mention all the hundreds of other formats, and stations around the country that mysteriously saw ratings plunge, and brought on resets.

The inverse is true as well. Several stations (this market and others) were just about to take an axe to their format ANTICIPATING their PPM results would tank ... only to learn they were top-5 stations in the "new world". I am aware of several that were doing studies to figure out where they could turn.

 

[Randy Roadz]

I made the assertion in another thread a while back that I didn't think a "sample" of a thousand or so out of three million was statistically significant. I'll stick to that. It is amazing that decision-makers are buying into this hogwash.

70% accuracy? What are we smoking here?

Bill, a couple of weeks ago I believe I read on here that there are approximately 750-800 PPMs for Seattle-Tacoma. Based on the Arbitron web site there are 3,453,400 people 12+ in the Seattle-Tacoma Market. Based on my possibly flawed math, that's one PPM per around 4500 people. This translates to roughly 0.022% of the population (2.2 people out of 10,000). Is this a significant sample? How does this stack up to the number of diaries under the old Arbitron method?

RR

 

[AQH]

I made the assertion in another thread a while back that I didn't think a "sample" of a thousand or so out of three million was statistically significant. I'll stick to that. It is amazing that decision-makers are buying into this hogwash.

70% accuracy? What are we smoking here?

The overall numbers are probably more accurate. The problem is more about breaking down those numbers to a certain demo, those sample sizes plunge to the same number as the IQ of Jessica Simpson.

 

[AQH]

Bill, a couple of weeks ago I believe I read on here that there are approximately 750-800 PPMs for Seattle-Tacoma. Based on the Arbitron web site there are 3,453,400 people 12+ in the Seattle-Tacoma Market. Based on my possibly flawed math, that's one PPM per around 4500 people. This translates to roughly 0.022% of the population (2.2 people out of 10,000). Is this a significant sample? How does this stack up to the number of diaries under the old Arbitron method?

That is assuming that all 3,453,400 people 12+ in Seattle actually listen to a radio.

 

[Steenman]

The problem isn't sample 'size'. The problem is 'turnover' you stay with one sample for many months as opposed to diary where it was a week. Plus, everyone started wearing at once so you got a stagnant sample for the initial period (some of that is evening out finally). Other problem is who's 'willing' to wear one- for awhile in this market it seemed to skew strongly toward women. Slowly these issues are being resolved. FYI tv had some of same problems initially with set top boxes but over time the ratings began to look more and more like the previous diary results either because Nielsen 'adjusted' it somehow either the methodogy or the results.

 

[Bongwater]

I think we all agree that the sample should be higher and probably will be for PPM measurement in the future. But I believe we can also agree that the data that is collected falls into the range of 70% or higher in accuracy, than that of diary respondents who filled out a diary at the deadline.

70% in accuracy means nothing. We are still talking about just over a thousand people in a potential audience of 3.5 million.

1,317 people out of 3.5 million, just 70% accuracy (And who says they can't/don't game PPMs either?) And everybody's betting the farm on it. Good gravy!

Go on.....

Second, no satellite radio did not see a huge uptick in subscribers after KWJZ in Seattle changed format. That is just a silly uninformed assumption. In fact, XM-Sirius did not beat their Q4 estimates, but are expected to see decline in Q1. Unlike satellite radio (much to Bong's chagrin) traditional free radio is seeing anywhere between a 3-15% grown as of Q4. And also unlike what Bong believes, that growth has been spurred through group owners using audience and music research in order to super-serve the demographic advertisers want to reach.

"Unlike satellite radio (much to Bong's chagrin) traditional free radio is seeing anywhere between a 3-15% grown as of Q4....."

You almost paraphrased perfectly the final words of the last 8-Track tape bigwig regarding the cassette in 1978.

3-15% growth? WHERE? WHO? Most people I talk with whenever the subject comes up usually say "I don't listen to the radio". When I walk down the streets of Everett or Bellevue, I don't see kids blaring KBKS or KUBE through their earbuds or cell phones (I can tell. When was the last time you heard either station play Insane Clown Posse or South Park Mexicans in their full uncensored glory?)

And don't EVEN get me started on the older folks.....and college age hipsters are even worse. And maybe even they're right; I actually heard a Kanye West song tonight on KEXP.

And I wasn't talking about every Sirius/XM dealer in the country. But they can all tell you when a niche format like Smooth Jazz disappears from local airwaves, they do get more interested people in the door (some even subscribe!) But there's MORE than satellite radio out there today. Webcasters, Music Choice, iPods, Rhapsody, Pandora, et al. Terrestrial radio does have it's slice of that pie (and a good one), but the economy is recovering and when that happens, people usually start looking for the luxury goods again. The recession was the PERFECT time for terrestrial radio to REALLY shine.

But instead of making it better, it, as you said, "Super-served" (It just never ceases to amaze me just how similar the models of corporate fast food and corporate radio really are.) It wasn't BETTER radio for the 2010 listening ear. It was a bigger, gooier....messier radio, filled with station voicers (the aural onions your brain tries to pick out), made by people trying to stay with the secret formula, but are indifferent to everything else......Just like fast food.

Even back when radio was the only portable way of listening to music, news and entertainment programming, stations didn't just lick their finger and hold it up into the breeze. The four basic formats found on successful radio operations were: News, Country-Western, Top-40, and some "full service". Now in an age of portable devices and easy access to music and spoken word content through IPods and Zunes, radio would and has needed to evolve to many more niche' formats.

GREAT IDEA! It can start by QUIT AXING niche formats. They aren't big with 1,300 carefully selected people with narrow taste anyway.

If some old-timers suffering from revisionist history don't like the change, I for one would rather lose .0001% and gain 5% total audience and revenue any day.

And that's 5% of 1,300 known people listening....Wow!....That'll show Facebook a thing or two about getting total users and advertisers!......

But seriously, it all comes back to the sample size. This is all everything is based on. And it's pathetic. Do the ADVERTISERS know this yet?

 

[Bongwater]

Other problem is who's 'willing' to wear one.......

That is interesting. They don't look particularly cool. And I can just imagine how one explains what it is:

"HEY! You got a BEEPER! Welcome to 1989 dude!"

"No man, this is my meter"

"Oh...You're DIABETIC! Are you feeling OK? Do you need a candy bar?"

"NO!"

"You're not on work release, are you?"..........

They really ought to put built-in radios into these things........

 

[bossbill]

If Arbitron were pitching me in Grays Harbor County, 70,000 population, and explaining to me that 15 people wearing a meter would determine my future success, I would be showing them the door. Aside from problems of sample size, turnover, and methodology, it's a great concept.

I'd do as well sending my $200 to Holly LaFontaine (she's the lady who scammed some broadcasters with fake surveys over the past ten years or so... and she says she used to work at Arbitron... hmmm).

 

[TVradioguru]

"1,317 people out of 3.5 million, just 70% accuracy (And who says they can't/don't game PPMs either?) And everybody's betting the farm on it. Good gravy!"

No that's not what I said. When the smoke clears, re-read my statement. I said that PPM is 70% MORE accurrate than an individual filling out a diary at the last minute.

"You almost paraphrased perfectly the final words of the last 8-Track tape bigwig regarding the cassette in 1978."

Really! Care to forward the quote and who made it?

"3-15% growth? WHERE? WHO? Most people I talk with whenever the subject comes up usually say "I don't listen to the radio".

Groups reporting like Emmis: +6.2%, Salem: 3.2%, SBS: 2.2%, Clear Channel: 4.1%.. I could go on.. And because of ear buds, the days of giant boom boxes ended in the 80's Bong. And "kids" are not the only radio listeners anymore either. Some old guy walking down the street or talking with their friends in, of all places, Bellingham, is not an accurate cross section of radio listening nationwide.

"The recession was the PERFECT time for terrestrial radio to REALLY shine."

And for as much as you don't want to believe it, radio has shined. In spite of AM losses, more people tune into free radio each day. Radio listening is up, way up, it's the economy and advertising accross the board that's been down.


And that's 5% of 1,300 known people listening....Wow!....That'll show Facebook a thing or two about getting total users and advertisers!......

Again, numbers must escape you Bong. What I said was for listener increase or revenue increase, I'd lose .0001% listeners made up of of old curmudgeons, such as as yourself, and gain 5% of actual radio listeners and the associated revenues therein any day.

Again, read my post Bong. I agree the sample size for PPM needs-to and will increase over time, but just like People Meters did for TV, it takes time to deploy.

Business doesn't revolve around Seattle or Bellingham.