Lake Charles market is eating away at each other

[CosmicMagician]

Yeah. I am convinced that Cumulus and Townsquare are killing each other slowly. The competition here is just too high. Cumulus, I heard, were on the verge of bankruptcy. I wonder if they will start selling some of their stations in LC?


But 107 Jamz (KJMH) is completely dominating KYKZ 96 in the Lake Charles market. Something that hasn't been seen before. And both Cumulus and Townsquare radio stations have switched formats in only two years. (97.9 goes from Hip Hop to Country as NASH Icon - while 92.1 Kiss FM turns into Classic Rock 92.1 in order to compete with ROCK 101)


KBIU 103.3 owned by Cumulus is also doing very pitifully; and is the loser-

http://www.******************/sr_ratings.aspx?market=584


If you look at the ratings, it seems a bit pitiful. KYKZ 96 is Cumulus' only saving grace. Rest of the market is dominated by Townsquare Media.

 

[davideduardo]

Yeah. I am convinced that Cumulus and Townsquare are killing each other slowly. The competition here is just too high. Cumulus, I heard, were on the verge of bankruptcy. I wonder if they will start selling some of their stations in LC?

Cumulus' problem is the large debt it is carrying, and not, for the most part, its station operations. It's very unlikely assets will be sold one by one. If they do go into Chapter 11, that move will be to get a breather and a refinancing on the debt so the station group can be profitable.

But 107 Jamz (KJMH) is completely dominating KYKZ 96 in the Lake Charles market. Something that hasn't been seen before. And both Cumulus and Townsquare radio stations have switched formats in only two years. (97.9 goes from Hip Hop to Country as NASH Icon - while 92.1 Kiss FM turns into Classic Rock 102.1 in order to compete with ROCK 101)


KBIU 103.3 owned by Cumulus is also doing very pitifully; and is the loser-

http://www.******************/sr_ratings.aspx?market=584

In very small rated markets, ratings are of very reduced importance. Local direct selling is the key factor, and that is generally done without the use of ratings.

If you look at the ratings, it seems a bit pitiful. KYKZ 96 is Cumulus' only saving grace. Rest of the market is dominated by Townsquare Media.

But most advertisers don't look at ratings in that market.

 

[TheBigA]

Yeah. I am convinced that Cumulus and Townsquare are killing each other slowly. The competition here is just too high. Cumulus, I heard, were on the verge of bankruptcy. I wonder if they will start selling some of their stations in LC?

Two things trigger bankruptcy: The inability to meet a payment, or a lender calling in a loan. Neither has happened, nor is about to.

 

[CosmicMagician]

My point being, Townsquare Media really has the upper hand. You can tell that Cumulus are doing terrible. Especially since the most successful station KYKZ is the Lake Charles cashcow, and has always been. Even the independent broadcasters, B & C Broadcasting, are beating KYKZ too.

There must be something wrong with Cumulus Media. I wonder if they are worried. I predict in the future that Townsquare and Clear Channel will eat them. But Clear Channel has a good chance of following thereafter. Cumulus would be crazy to not sell a few of their stations in order to save their firm. The only other corporation I can think of are Entercom; who are pretty modest in buying stations.

I don't think Emmis will; as they usually only do bigger cities.

Edit: Cumulus do seem pretty worried to me, by the way. While listening to their own stations I have noticed a larger amount of Cumulus advertisements during commercials. Almost every commercial break, a Cumulus promotional ad will be aired. It almost seems like desperation. They have fine programming most of the time. But in Lake Charles, Townsquare pretty much have them beat.

 

[davideduardo]

There must be something wrong with Cumulus Media. I wonder if they are worried. I predict in the future that Townsquare and Clear Channel will eat them. But Clear Channel has a good chance of following thereafter. Cumulus would be crazy to not sell a few of their stations in order to save their firm. The only other corporation I can think of are Entercom; who are pretty modest in buying stations.

I don't think Emmis will; as they usually only do bigger cities.

"Clear Channel" no longer exists. It changed its corporate name a number of years ago. They are not buying, particularly in relatively bad radio markets like Lake Charles.

iHeart has debt problems comparable to those of Cumulus: debt that vastly exceeds the value of the assets in today's radio world.

Cumulus would be crazy to sell assets today. Radio stations are all worth around 70% less than they might have been in the pre-recession years. So assets that are profitable are worth more in the portfolio than on the open market, where a sale would represent a big loss.

Entercom is "modest"? Entercom is about to swallow CBS Radio whole, and definitely won't be buying in a relatively bad radio market like Lake Charles. They are getting stations in NY, CHicago, LA, San Francisco, Philly and other top 25 markets. They will not want something in a bottom ranked market.

And Emmis? You jest, right? They were just forced by their lenders to sell their prize LA station to meet debt commitments. And they just sold all their stations in a similarly small market... Terre Haute.

 

[CosmicMagician]

You're naive and crazy if you do not believe that a smaller radio group like (i.e. Entercom) wouldn't buy a few stations in "bad radio markets". It would be a clever cover scheme for them to secretly make up to their giant competitors. (iHeartRadio, Cumulus) The stations they would buy would obviously never be meant to "win", just to help Entercom keep their balance with a little bit of financial boost; while iHeartRadio & Cumulus slowly destroy themselves financially, with their greed.

It would be like reaping a few rewards for backup, especially in an industry that is slowing undergoing a spiraling economic downturn. If there was ever a massive industry collapse in Radio, a station like Entercom would probably benefit from a few stations in obscure markets. While the radio giants like iHeartRadio and Cumulus would be forced to sell out. If you ask me, Entercom are playing their cards very well. Better than iHeartRadio, Cumulus and even Townsquare Media.

 

[davideduardo]

You're naive and crazy if you do not believe that a smaller radio group like (i.e. Entercom) wouldn't buy a few stations in "bad radio markets". It would be a clever cover scheme for them to secretly make up to their giant competitors.

I'm neither. I just understand how the larger players operate.

Entercom, in a matter of months, with have greater billing than Cumulus if I calculate correctly ($1,050 billion to $745 million). It will become the second largest radio company in the US once the CBS stations enter the fold. Entercom's focus is on top markets; CBS had been divesting anything they could outside the top 25 markets. The combined Entercom will have no stations outside the top 110 markets, while Lake Charles is market 220.

About 100 of the new Entercom stations individually bill more than the total billing of all 14 stations in Lake Charles. 200 of them bill more than the top billing station in Lake Charles.

 

[ContinuousWave]

Two things trigger bankruptcy: The inability to meet a payment, or a lender calling in a loan. Neither has happened, nor is about to.

And a year later, Chapter 11..... ������

 

[TheBigA]

And a year later, Chapter 11..... ������

Yep, it was a pre-packaged deal where the company simply decided to trade debt for equity.

It seemed to go very quickly and painlessly, with no assets sold (although a few contracts were canceled).