DeadElvis said:
It's mostly cyclical propagation. Sunspots, etc.
Not really so much
The "etc." was inserted to cover the real issue with Latin American receiption and DX... north / south pathing and early and late season auroral effects.
Most of the mid-range Latin American DX from the northern part of the US occurs during the first four to 5 hours of a fully dark path.
By mid range, I mean Colombia and Venezuela and adjacent areas. I can recall a 10 kw Venezuelan wiping out the 50 kw Cleveland station no more than 35 miles from their transmitters, and YV's and HJ's on nearly every frequency. I was lucky once time in the early 60's when such conditions prevailed the evening of Venezuelan elections, and I logged several dozen YVs that night before midnight.
I didn't mention this since most persons have not experienced it... and it is really a MW phenomenon.
To be sure, the relationship between MW and the Solar Cycle is debated, but most agree that as the ionosphere gets quieter due to the fall of Solar Flux, MW signals actually do better, certainly at higher latitudes.
I have experienced solar highs and lows at the latitude of Cleveland, OH, and at 0 latitude, about 10 miles south of the Equator. Long distance DX, such as Australia from Cleveland and Europe from Ecuador were only possible with regularity in sunspot lows, all other things being equal.
I suspect that much of the reasoning behind loss of some super signals is simple congestion. The band continues to fill up.
Why would that affect special condition reception that is funnel shaped?
Further, many of the super-power stations (like XERF/1570) are shadows of their former selves. There is a big difference between 500 kW and 10 kW (about 17 dB!).
XERF was never 500 kw. It ran 250 kw for maybe 3 decades, ran into bankruptcy and limped until the government's IMER took it over, and is now 100 kw.
Other than TWR, frlom 500 Kw to 100 kw and XERF and XEROK from 150 kw to 50 kw, I know of no other reduced power station but I know of hundreds of stations that were below 50 kw that are now in the 50 to 100 kw range, from Argentina to Mexico. Mexico City alone has seen 50 to 100 kw come to 690, 760, 790, 830, 970, 1150, 1320, 1500, 1560, etc.
On the other hand, many of the low power, high dial position stations have gone silent.