Not to get too off-topic, but I think that as weak a candidate Fogarty is, he will come within a few points of Carcieri. There are several reasons:
1. Rhode Island is an overwhelmingly Democratic state in which President Bush has a 22% approval rating. Any Democrat has a more than a 50-50 chance in Rhode Island.
2. There is a huge anti-incumbent and anti-Republican mood, given Bush's unpopularity and the lack of progress in Iraq. The mood is similar to the anti-incumbent and anti-Democrat mood in 1994.
3. Carcieri is a far Right governor. His views are out of touch with those of the majority of Rhode Islanders. Examples include his support of the Iraq war, his anti-gay marriage stance, his pro-life stance (pro-choicers do make up a majority of Rhode Island voters), his pro-gun stance, and his support for President Bush.
4. As much as Fogarty often comes off as dim, Carcieri often appears to be out-of-touch with the common folk. Carcieri, an extraordinarily wealthy East Greenwich businessman, can seem aloof and unconcerned with the plight of the poor.
All in all, I think Carcieri will win, but not by much.