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Looking to 2006

R

Radiogeek500

Last year about this time Kyle himself asked "just what will happen in 2005"? Well, we all have seen what has happened. Now we start a new year, so I will ask the question this year, what are your predictions for 2006?<P ID="signature">______________
20 Years of POWERFUL music
Power 106 La's Party Station.

JOSH, Moderating the whole Radio-Info radio state of California and Indiana too!</P>
 
> Last year about this time Kyle himself asked "just what will
> happen in 2005"? Well, we all have seen what has happened.
> Now we start a new year, so I will ask the question this
> year, what are your predictions for 2006?
>

I predict Indie will flip to Spanish. Get ready for all the "how could they do that" posts on this board.
 
> I predict Indie will flip to Spanish. Get ready for all the
> "how could they do that" posts on this board.

I'll blunt some of that by pointing out that Indie is still owned by Entravision, which is primarily a Spanish-language media company. And <u>that</u> is how they could do that.<P ID="signature">______________


</P>
 
> > I predict Indie will flip to Spanish. Get ready for all
> the
> > "how could they do that" posts on this board.
>
> I'll blunt some of that by pointing out that Indie is still
> owned by Entravision, which is primarily a Spanish-language
> media company. And that is how they could do that.
>
But, as David has correctly pointed out on a number of occasions, the signal pattern is not condusive for a Spanish language format (unless you added another signal to it as a trimulcas possibly). It's not to say they wouldn't do it.

My guess is that "Indie" will be around a year from today as they try and grow it. If Entravision were to make a flip - it might be "Oye"...

97.5 and the two 103.1's together actually form a pretty good signal (although there's a little redundancy in the O.C.). They could opt to go that route.
 
> 97.5 and the two 103.1's together actually form a pretty
> good signal (although there's a little redundancy in the
> O.C.). They could opt to go that route.

And, of course, that is exactly the configuration of the original trimulcast of Super Estrella prior to Entravision acquiring the 107.1s from now-defunct Big City, so there is certainly precedent.

Even though Estrella did not do all that well on the 103.1s back then, which would make it somewhat less likely that José would replace Indie, it should be noted that Indie costs more to operate than José, since the latter is a satellite format that Entravision operates on multiple stations with a single feed, and therefore would have only nominal overhead.

In light of all this, it is truly remarkable that Indie has held on for two years already. One must wonder, though, if Entravision's current efforts to establish the José format in several markets will mean the death of Indie (I note in the last trends that Indie's numbers are still wobbling within the margin of error, so it is more obvious than ever that they have every listener they are ever going to get) ...<P ID="signature">______________


</P>
 
Re: KM, streaming future??

> > 97.5 and the two 103.1's together actually form a pretty
> > good signal (although there's a little redundancy in the
> > O.C.). They could opt to go that route.
>
> And, of course, that is exactly the configuration of the
> original trimulcast of Super Estrella prior to Entravision
> acquiring the 107.1s from now-defunct Big City, so there is
> certainly precedent.
>
> Even though Estrella did not do all that well on the 103.1s
> back then, which would make it somewhat less likely that
> José would replace Indie, it should be noted that Indie
> costs more to operate than José, since the latter is a
> satellite format that Entravision operates on multiple
> stations with a single feed, and therefore would have only
> nominal overhead.
>
> In light of all this, it is truly remarkable that Indie has
> held on for two years already. One must wonder, though, if
> Entravision's current efforts to establish the José format
> in several markets will mean the death of Indie (I note in
> the last trends that Indie's numbers are still wobbling
> within the margin of error, so it is more obvious than ever
> that they have every listener they are ever going to get)
> ...
>


KM-
If Entravision were to blow up Indie on 103.1, would they consider continuing the format as an online streaming station. KNAC.com has been around for years for CC so it appears that there are listeners and money to be made.
 
Here we go again.

I'm quite certain that a year ago several people here were predicting the demise of Indie in 2005.

Didn't happen.

In fact several people have been making that prediction every few months since they went on the air 2 years ago.

Let me go out on a limb and predict that Indie won't turn Spanish in 06.

I predict changes at Entravision locally and nationally, and soon, but not at Indie.
 
Re: Here we go again.

> I'm quite certain that a year ago several people here were
> predicting the demise of Indie in 2005.
>
> Didn't happen.

The only thing that has been said, over and over, is that Indie is not a good fit with Entravision's corporate philosophy and image. If you wish to interpret that as "predicting the demise", Freddy, go ahead.

The reality is that Indie cannot go on forever. It didn't happen last year -- which is a good thing, because, as I have said (you always manage to forget that I say this), Indie is a wonderfully innovative format -- but innovation does not override corporate philosophies for long. Especially when there isn't money being made.

Let's be honest. Indie has survived only because (1) Entravision hasn't had anything else to put on the signal and (2) no one would buy the 103.1s from them at anywhere near the price Entravision paid for them.

Will José be the format that eliminates reason #1? We shall see ... soon.

> In fact several people have been making that prediction
> every few months since they went on the air 2 years ago.

Again, you are twisting the truth, Freddy. You see the negativity (and yes, I admit that speaking realistically does paint a negative picture in the long run) as being a prediction of imminent demise. Go back and read the two reasons why Indie is still on the air. Sooner or later, it will happen.

> Let me go out on a limb and predict that Indie won't turn
> Spanish in 06.
>
> I predict changes at Entravision locally and nationally, and
> soon, but not at Indie.

And if they do flip 103.1 in 2006, I will expect your silence, because I know you won't "remember" you said this.

Personally, though, I hope you're right.<P ID="signature">______________


</P>
 
Re: KM, streaming future??

> KM-
> If Entravision were to blow up Indie on 103.1, would they
> consider continuing the format as an online streaming
> station. KNAC.com has been around for years for CC so it
> appears that there are listeners and money to be made.

I wish I could be optimistic that they will, but if you read the post I just made answering Nick/Freddy's latest round of cheerleading, I fear that when Indie does eventually end its run -- be it this year, next year, or 2010 -- Entravision will be happy to get this corporate philosophy non-conforming format out of their hair.

Also, KNAC.com is not owned by Clear Channel.<P ID="signature">______________


</P>
 
Re: Here we go again.

Well I just can't win can I?

I stand by my statement.

"I predict changes at Entravision locally and nationally,
and soon, but not at Indie."








> > I'm quite certain that a year ago several people here were
>
> > predicting the demise of Indie in 2005.
> >
> > Didn't happen.
>
> The only thing that has been said, over and over, is that
> Indie is not a good fit with Entravision's corporate
> philosophy and image. If you wish to interpret that as
> "predicting the demise", Freddy, go ahead.
>
> The reality is that Indie cannot go on forever. It didn't
> happen last year -- which is a good thing, because, as I
> have said (you always manage to forget that I say this),
> Indie is a wonderfully innovative format -- but innovation
> does not override corporate philosophies for long.
> Especially when there isn't money being made.
>
> Let's be honest. Indie has survived only because (1)
> Entravision hasn't had anything else to put on the signal
> and (2) no one would buy the 103.1s from them at anywhere
> near the price Entravision paid for them.
>
> Will José be the format that eliminates reason #1? We shall
> see ... soon.
>
> > In fact several people have been making that prediction
> > every few months since they went on the air 2 years ago.
>
> Again, you are twisting the truth, Freddy. You see the
> negativity (and yes, I admit that speaking realistically
> does paint a negative picture in the long run) as being a
> prediction of imminent demise. Go back and read the two
> reasons why Indie is still on the air. Sooner or later, it
> will happen.
>
> > Let me go out on a limb and predict that Indie won't turn
> > Spanish in 06.
> >
> > I predict changes at Entravision locally and nationally,
> and
> > soon, but not at Indie.
>
> And if they do flip 103.1 in 2006, I will expect your
> silence, because I know you won't "remember" you said this.
>
> Personally, though, I hope you're right.
>
 
Re: KM, streaming future??

KM,

Me saying Indie isn't going away is not cheerleading any more than your prediction of demise is nay saying.

You give me no respect, and yet expect it from me.



> > KM-
> > If Entravision were to blow up Indie on 103.1, would they
> > consider continuing the format as an online streaming
> > station. KNAC.com has been around for years for CC so it
> > appears that there are listeners and money to be made.
>
> I wish I could be optimistic that they will, but if you read
> the post I just made answering Nick/Freddy's latest round of
> cheerleading, I fear that when Indie does eventually end its
> run -- be it this year, next year, or 2010 -- Entravision
> will be happy to get this corporate philosophy
> non-conforming format out of their hair.
>
> Also, KNAC.com is not owned by Clear Channel.
>
 
Re: KM, streaming future??

> Me saying Indie isn't going away is not cheerleading any
> more than your prediction of demise is nay saying.

The difference is that sooner or later it will go away, so sooner or later I will be right.<P ID="signature">______________


</P>
 
Re: Chchchchanges.

> Well I just can't win can I?
>
> I stand by my statement.
>
> "I predict changes at Entravision locally and nationally,
> and soon, but not at Indie."

Jeeze. You could say that about any radio company with 10 stations or more. the chances are that some executive will leave, at least one or two stations will change formats, several other stations will go down, and some will go up.

Entravision has just sold KBRG and KLOK in SF, the stations it started with as Excl a decade or so ago. They are making changes in LA, with a PD out at KLYY, and a new one arriving... Isabel Gonzalez. They are doing a research project to determine what to do on 97.5 and 103.1, if anything. They are changing the mornings shows on the Tricolor stations in some markets.

Are those enough changes? And I did not even need a crystal ball. ALL COMPANIES HAVE CHANGES or they are stagnant. Change is good. Change on 103.1 could be good, too, unless Entravision is happy with something closer to a half share point than a full share and declining revenue.

You bounce some balls off the wall for a while. I am gong to go get my racquet restrung.
 
Revisionists

Here's something interesting..
I dont think Freddy is "twisting it" at all....

Subject: Re: Here we go again
Posted by: KMRichards
Posted on: 01/01/06 10:01 PM

> The only thing that has been said, over and over, is that
> Indie is not a good fit with Entravision's corporate
> philosophy and image. If you wish to interpret that as
> "predicting the demise", Freddy, go ahead.


Subject: Re: L.A. Times article on Steve Jones and Indie
Posted by: KMRichards
Posted on: 12/30/04 09:54 AM

>Cred or no cred, I predict that once the JSA with Clear Channel ends, >Entravision will flip 103.1 to one of their syndicated Spanish-language format.
 
Re: Chchchchanges.

Yes,

Those are some of the changes I speak of, you seem to know of the same things.
When I say soon, I mean days.

Indie will stay.

Why does Indie get so much attention here when it comes to trying to guess what will happen?

I am one of the few here who have consistently predicted that Indie will not go away any time soon.
I think it's a safe bet to predict they will go away. It's going out on a limb to say they will stick around and so far I have been right over and over.



> > Well I just can't win can I?
> >
> > I stand by my statement.
> >
> > "I predict changes at Entravision locally and nationally,
>
> > and soon, but not at Indie."
>
> Jeeze. You could say that about any radio company with 10
> stations or more. the chances are that some executive will
> leave, at least one or two stations will change formats,
> several other stations will go down, and some will go up.
>
> Entravision has just sold KBRG and KLOK in SF, the stations
> it started with as Excl a decade or so ago. They are making
> changes in LA, with a PD out at KLYY, and a new one
> arriving... Isabel Gonzalez. They are doing a research
> project to determine what to do on 97.5 and 103.1, if
> anything. They are changing the mornings shows on the
> Tricolor stations in some markets.
>
> Are those enough changes? And I did not even need a crystal
> ball. ALL COMPANIES HAVE CHANGES or they are stagnant.
> Change is good. Change on 103.1 could be good, too, unless
> Entravision is happy with something closer to a half share
> point than a full share and declining revenue.
>
> You bounce some balls off the wall for a while. I am gong to
> go get my racquet restrung.
>
 
Re: KM, streaming future??

Yes, well sooner or later you will die but I predict it won't be this year.

You used to say things like, "within 90 days" or after the JSA is up.

Indie is not going away any time soon.

That takes more guts to say that "sooner or later they will be gone".
Over and over I've put myself on the line by disagreeing with everybody when they insist Indie is iminently doomed.

Why is everybody so eager to doom Indie?




> > Me saying Indie isn't going away is not cheerleading any
> > more than your prediction of demise is nay saying.
>
> The difference is that sooner or later it will go away, so
> sooner or later I will be right.
>
 
Re: KM, streaming future??

> Yes, well sooner or later you will die but I predict it
> won't be this year.

Ha ha. Very funny. NOT.

> You used to say things like, "within 90 days" or after the
> JSA is up.

Yes, I have said that those were likely times that a format change could happen. Anyone with any knowledge of the business can predict when changes are the most likely.

> Indie is not going away any time soon.

We'll see. I stand by the statement that Indie is not a good fit with Entravision's long-term goals. When they find something else to do on the 103.1s, Indie will -- quite suddenly, most likely -- disappear.

If Entravision does decide to run José as a trimulcast on both 97.5 and 103.1, the flip will be quick. All they have to do is program the automation and plug in the satellite feed.

I realize that the 103.1s are not the ideal signals for Spanish, but look at it from a cost-effective standpoint. Entravision would have no real overhead, no need for a local program director, and -- unlike the previous "Estrella" trimulcast and the current "Indie" simulcast -- they don't have to sell it standalone. They can sell "José" in combo with "Estrella" on 107.1 ... quite easily, actually.

> That takes more guts to say that "sooner or later they will
> be gone".
> Over and over I've put myself on the line by disagreeing
> with everybody when they insist Indie is iminently doomed.

Indie is always in imminent danger. If you would stop looking at my posts (and David's, and certain others) with the myopic view that we are disagreeing with you just for the sake of disagreeing with you, you would see that all we are doing is applying industry knowledge to the situation and predicting the logical outcome.

Just in case you are paying attention (you never acknowledge when I say this, so I presume you conveniently ignore it), I will say it again: I believe it is a shame that Indie was put on this particular signal. If it were on a better signal, capable of getting decent ratings, and owned by a company that is not 90% focused on Spanish language media, it would have a far better chance of success.

> Why is everybody so eager to doom Indie?

We are being realists. You are not.<P ID="signature">______________


</P>
 
Re: Revisionists

> Here's something interesting..
> I dont think Freddy is "twisting it" at all....
>
> Subject: Re: Here we go again
> Posted by: KMRichards
> Posted on: 01/01/06 10:01 PM
>
> > The only thing that has been said, over and over, is that
> > Indie is not a good fit with Entravision's corporate
> > philosophy and image. If you wish to interpret that as
> > "predicting the demise", Freddy, go ahead.
>
>
> Subject: Re: L.A. Times article on Steve Jones and Indie
> Posted by: KMRichards
> Posted on: 12/30/04 09:54 AM
>
> >Cred or no cred, I predict that once the JSA with Clear
> Channel ends, >Entravision will flip 103.1 to one of their
> syndicated Spanish-language format.

And I have explained this several times (including a couple of minutes ago, answering Freddy in this thread).

The end of the JSA was an opportunity for Entravision to flip the station. They chose not to. They will continue to have opportunities, and sooner or later, they will take one. A Spanish language media company running an English language alternative music station does not go on forever.

There is nothing revisionist in what I am saying, only that those reading my posts (and David's) like to find "proof" of whatever they want to accuse us of.

At least we can explain the logic behind our posts. Freddy relies on the argument that "since Indie has lasted this long, it will last forever", which is a totally absurd presumption.

Read my post in which I explain why the "José" format presents one of those opportunities. Consider the possibility that the reason Entravision didn't flip when the JSA ended was that none of their other formats could be sold in combo with "Estrella" ... "José" can.<P ID="signature">______________


</P>
 
Re: Chchchchanges.

> Why does Indie get so much attention here when it comes to
> trying to guess what will happen?

Because people like you keep bringing Indie up, and then make all kinds of emotionally charged arguments that we then have to attempt to answer using real logic and industry knowledge.

This thread did not originally mention Indie, but one of the usual gang of Indie supporters couldn't resist taking the thread in that direction ... wasn't David or I who did that.

> I am one of the few here who have consistently predicted
> that Indie will not go away any time soon.
> I think it's a safe bet to predict they will go away. It's
> going out on a limb to say they will stick around and so far
> I have been right over and over.

The operative phrase is "so far".

It is, as I just said in replying to chacha, a faulty argument to claim that "because a station has survived this long, it will survive forever".

Take off those damned rose colored glasses for once and pay attention to what David and I are basing our comments on.<P ID="signature">______________


</P>
 
Re: Ok everyone, back on topic!

I started this thread to talk about what you think will happen in ALL of LA Radio in 2006.

I did not start this thread to specifically sepculate for the 5,345 time what Indie's future will be.

However Mr Michaels felt the need to hijack my thread and once again talk about a pea shooter that 95% of LA has never heard, 89% of LA can't recieve the signal worth a darn, and furthermore get on my nerves.

If I don't see at least one other station mentioned in this thread, I'm closing it. If I have to become KM JR I will, so don't push me.


> > Why does Indie get so much attention here when it comes to
>
> > trying to guess what will happen?
>
> Because people like you keep bringing Indie up, and then
> make all kinds of emotionally charged arguments that we then
> have to attempt to answer using real logic and industry
> knowledge.
>
> This thread did not originally mention Indie, but one of the
> usual gang of Indie supporters couldn't resist taking the
> thread in that direction ... wasn't David or I who did that.
>
>
> > I am one of the few here who have consistently predicted
> > that Indie will not go away any time soon.
> > I think it's a safe bet to predict they will go away. It's
>
> > going out on a limb to say they will stick around and so
> far
> > I have been right over and over.
>
> The operative phrase is "so far".
>
> It is, as I just said in replying to chacha, a faulty
> argument to claim that "because a station has survived this
> long, it will survive forever".
>
> Take off those damned rose colored glasses for once and pay
> attention to what David and I are basing our comments on.
>
<P ID="signature">______________
20 Years of POWERFUL music
Power 106 La's Party Station.

JOSH, Moderating the whole Radio-Info radio state of California and Indiana too!</P>
 
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