sportsannouncer said:
Kent, Mix 94.9 was nothing compared to what Tom-FM could be. The format that Mix had was nothing compared to the format that Tom will use.
Forgive me if I sound underwhelmed, but the deck is stacked against Tom FM. I agree that Mix 94.9 was nothing and that Tom FM could be a lot, but I don't have a whole lot of confidence in it living up to what it could be. Don't get me wrong. Tom Wood is an excellent programmer, and I know he's accomplished a lot and is very sharp. I just don't see Tom FM making waves for the following reasons: (1) Clear Channel is cutting back on research, hiring, and promotions. You don't want to be launching a new station without research, promotion and the staff you need to be successful. (2) The station will be going into a trust if Clear Channel goes private. This means Clear Channel won't be able to operate it in conjunction with its other stations. If you've ever been in this situation, you know just how bad it really is. If Mr. Wood is able to stay with Clear Channel, there's a good chance he'll be leaving Tom FM before it even gets a foot off the ground. You can't work for a parent company and a trustee representing that company at the same time; FCC ownership rules prohibit it. (3) Clear Channel screwed up Mix 94.9 in an under AC'ed market. Why wouldn't they screw this up, too?
I can't say a lot, but I know of one AC station that is changing formats. IMO, part of that reasoning has to be because of the addition of Tom-FM.
According to how BIA defines Little Rock, there is exactly one commercial AC station in the market, and it's not going anywhere. There are a few stations outside Little Rock that run AC, like Star 96.7 in Hot Springs and KTRN in Pine Bluff, and a non-commercial AC (or at least a part-time AC) in KUCA 91.3. I won't say none of those other stations will change. However, I doubt it has much, if anything, to do with Tom FM. You don't go running scared from a competitor that hasn't even signed on unless you're already hurting badly.
When you have a station that has a playlist of 1,000+ songs versus a station that has a playlist of 500, it is going to have an effect on some stations.
Not necessarily. If playlist size determined everything, you wouldn't have stations with playlists of 500 songs or less being successful. Remember, the more songs your favorite station plays, the longer it will be until you hear your favorite song again. Variety hits stations in other markets have large cume, but TSL is a horror story for that very reason. Of course, TSL is not a sales metric. So, the variety hits station can survive and even do well do to the high cume. However, the flip side to that is that they usually don't do much damage to anyone else because of the constant turnover of listeners.
Kent, have you seen the last ratings for B98? They're not doing so hot right now. Maybe they need to tweak their format a bit?
B-98.5 isn't doing as well as it did six months ago, but it's doing just fine. Although I haven't seen the most recent breakouts, the station has always been huge in the lucrative 25-54 female demo. It's about where it was a year ago 12+, and the 25-54 female numbers were excellent then. So, I'd have to think it's doing well there yet again. It's also the third ranked non-urban music station in the market. It will be making money hand over fist for a long time to come.
Tom-FM may flop for all we know. But Little Rock radio has not seen a station like this before and no matter what happens, every AC and CHR station in the metro area and within the range of Tom-FM will take notice.
I wish Tom FM well. Like I said, they'll need a lot of good luck. I can't imagine Alice or B-98.5 being worried in the least. Actually, I think the station that has the most to worry about is The Point. Notice how badly it declined in the last book? Variety hits stations usually hit classic hits stations the hardest. However, I don't see it going anywhere either. It's been around for 14 years now and has effectively run Magic 105 out of town. It didn't do that by sucking!