Last year several posters did very well predicting there would be an FM Sports Talker. It turned out to happen almost immediately.
What are the bold predictions this year?
What are the bold predictions this year?
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Market Predictions 2011
- Thread starter Pratte4Life
- Start date
Pratte4Life said:
I predict we get an R & B or Urban AC FM station in the Burgh for 2011!!!
1250WTAE said:
Would you prefer me to lie?
Would you prefer it if I said I was positive that any new R&B or urban AC station would fail? If all you know is that something needs to be done to shake things up, that implies that you don't know exactly what. If you know something is needed but don't know what, but you'll take any sort of wild stab in the dark and hope for the best, does that mean you aren't really an expert at running radio stations, you've just been very, very lucky? And don't take that as an insult. Being lucky usually beats being good 9 times out of 10.
I think that the Steelers will do well in the playoffs, and have a good chance at winning the Super Bowl. It's not a sure thing, but it's possible. I think that the Penguins will continue to be a winning team. I think that the Pirates will show up for most of their games. I think the new Arena Football team that's coming to town will do well. Are those predictions positive enough?
You are correct that the market is stale and boring. But I do not agree that just making changes for change sake will automatically work. An oldies format on WLTJ might work, but it would probably just split the oldies audience to create two losing oldies stations instead of one winner.
I'd like to see some new talent on the WDVE morning show, with Jim Krenn persuaded to try his luck getting a part on a sitcom and moving to LA, and then replace him with someone who hasn't yet burned out.
As for predictions, I predict that the only real changes will happen on the rimshot stations or the small, low-powered stations that aren't owned by major corporations.
Lucky? Hardly! I've worked very hard to what I've owned, and own now. Your only as good as the people you have learned from, and those you surround yourself with. And I've learned from some of the best.
In Pittsburgh the rimshot oldies stations have some decent ratings. Add those up, and add WJAS to calculations. That's a pretty nice set of shares that an oldies FM could grab. This market is crying for it. That's not rocket science!!
In Pittsburgh the rimshot oldies stations have some decent ratings. Add those up, and add WJAS to calculations. That's a pretty nice set of shares that an oldies FM could grab. This market is crying for it. That's not rocket science!!
1250WTAE said:
They do? I see The Pickle with just under 2.0. Otherwise WJPA has a 0.8 share, and who knows how much of that comes from their HS sports on both AM and FM. I listen to and like WJPA, but I don't see that it has much in common with what I hear on WJAS. There are people over 50 who want Hendrix and get it on WJPA. There are people over 50 who want Tony Bennett and get it on WJAS. Try to combine them and you have a trainwreck that will chase away listeners from both groups.
Would a "real" oldies station draw listeners? Probably. But who would buy it? You're not getting through the door at most agencies with an over-50 audience and you're not selling neighborhood businesses on the hometown station if it's a Pittsburgh station. WJAS is barely scraping by. Whenever Bogut and Cardille leave and their personal business goes with them, WJAS will be coming to you off a satellite, the 4.0 share notwithstanding.
Predictions...
The 660/LPFM combo will NOT do Urban.
Urban will not return to the Pittsburgh airways at all in 2011.
One or more of the 3 mid-size operators here, Steel City, Renda, or Keymarket, will sell off some or all of their stations. You won't like the result, because Salem might be the #1 candidate to buy them. (However, if some of those stations do change hands, the odds of Urban returning increase somewhat.. obviously not if Salem buys them, but if a Radio One or someone like that surfaces... but don't hold your breath). The biggest impediment to change on this front is that it's still really difficult to get financing to buy radio stations, especially big ones. Banks just aren't interested.
The poster known here as 1250WTAE will get a signal in the market.
Frankie Day will still get a disproportionate amount of attention on this board.
The 660/LPFM combo will NOT do Urban.
Urban will not return to the Pittsburgh airways at all in 2011.
One or more of the 3 mid-size operators here, Steel City, Renda, or Keymarket, will sell off some or all of their stations. You won't like the result, because Salem might be the #1 candidate to buy them. (However, if some of those stations do change hands, the odds of Urban returning increase somewhat.. obviously not if Salem buys them, but if a Radio One or someone like that surfaces... but don't hold your breath). The biggest impediment to change on this front is that it's still really difficult to get financing to buy radio stations, especially big ones. Banks just aren't interested.
The poster known here as 1250WTAE will get a signal in the market.
Frankie Day will still get a disproportionate amount of attention on this board.
1250WTAE said:
I didn't say anything about how hard you worked. It takes just as much work to carry out a plan that's based on sticking a wet finger into the wind and hoping for the best as it does to carry out a plan that's based on knowing the right thing to do.
Maybe I should have said that it takes three things, knowing the right thing to do, hard work doing it, and luck. If anyone has any two of those things, they're in better shape than most. And if you had to pick only two, I'd pick hard work and luck. Expertise is over-rated, but luck is underappreciated.
Here's a predicition for something that will happen somewhere, though maybe not in Pittsburgh.
I predict that a locally-owned and operated FM station will successfully attempt a radical change in the radio business model. Instead of attempting to secure a mass audience to sell to mass-market merchandisers, this new approach will be for an upscale, "carriage trade" station that appeals to the wealthy. This station will compete with WQED-FM by playing a better and more audience accessible selection of classical music and/or snob-appeal lounge and jazz music along with enhanced news content. It will go after the high-ticket advertisers who currently spend most of their advertising dollars in the glossy magazine that 'QED publishes.
They won't sell ads to Giant Eagle or Shop 'n' Save, but they will get ads from Whole Foods, the Uncommon Market, and maybe even Giant Eagle's upscale Market District stores. They won't sell ads to Chevy or Ford Dealers, but they will get ads from Mercedes, Lexus, BMW, and Rolls Royce dealerships.
This station probably won't even register on the Arbitrons, but it will be the #1 station among the country club crowd in Fox Chapel, Sewickley, and Upper St. Clair. The people mentioned in Marylynn Uricchio's "Seen" column in the Post-Gazette will be the target market.
I predict that a locally-owned and operated FM station will successfully attempt a radical change in the radio business model. Instead of attempting to secure a mass audience to sell to mass-market merchandisers, this new approach will be for an upscale, "carriage trade" station that appeals to the wealthy. This station will compete with WQED-FM by playing a better and more audience accessible selection of classical music and/or snob-appeal lounge and jazz music along with enhanced news content. It will go after the high-ticket advertisers who currently spend most of their advertising dollars in the glossy magazine that 'QED publishes.
They won't sell ads to Giant Eagle or Shop 'n' Save, but they will get ads from Whole Foods, the Uncommon Market, and maybe even Giant Eagle's upscale Market District stores. They won't sell ads to Chevy or Ford Dealers, but they will get ads from Mercedes, Lexus, BMW, and Rolls Royce dealerships.
This station probably won't even register on the Arbitrons, but it will be the #1 station among the country club crowd in Fox Chapel, Sewickley, and Upper St. Clair. The people mentioned in Marylynn Uricchio's "Seen" column in the Post-Gazette will be the target market.
M
MsMusicRadio
Guest
Somebody wises up and flips an FM to automated soft oldies. This means primarily AC music from the 60's, 70's and 80's. Mostly Manilow, Air Supply, Gino Vanetti, Gladys Knight, Anne Murray, and the usual suspects. There is only be one jock in the AM drive who can also do public appearances at walker club rallies. WJAS will be sold to Salem who go all talk. Meanwhile, this new Gold-based Soft AC rockets to number one 12+ and never slips back, even at Christmas when others go all Christmas. This format includes old school soul ballads and some Motown which comes as close as Pittsburgh gets to Urban AC. It works and I listen to a prototype every day.
M
MsMusicRadio
Guest
Jkf said:
It works in Tampa. The same nabobs say it does't and predicted it's demise, but it is exactly the same as it was 10 years ago.
Tampa's old, too.
By the way, MsMusicRadio, what would make your station significantly different from WISH 99.7? They have lots of soft AC songs from even more than 40 years ago and certainly plenty from the '70s.
Granted, WISH also has contemporary stuff. But why would your dream station beat out WISH, let alone be No. 1?
Are there really that many people who hate Mariah Carey that much?
By the way, MsMusicRadio, what would make your station significantly different from WISH 99.7? They have lots of soft AC songs from even more than 40 years ago and certainly plenty from the '70s.
Granted, WISH also has contemporary stuff. But why would your dream station beat out WISH, let alone be No. 1?
Are there really that many people who hate Mariah Carey that much?
MsMusicRadio said:
Yes, more Gino Vanetti.
Yes, it is. He also had about three hits, so a format that's going to feature him prominently will probably have a pretty tight rotation.
Just having some fun with another of the irrational rants. There's some unintentionally funny stuff in this thread.
Just having some fun with another of the irrational rants. There's some unintentionally funny stuff in this thread.
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