Market Predictions 2011

[trefdawg]

Ahh Gino Vanellie...wasn't one of his biggest hits called "People Got to Move" ? Maybe the Radio Disney folk should use this tune as the background music bed for the message currently airing on 540am! ??? ??? Just sayin.

 

[MsMusicRadio]

WDUV works in Tampa and I think it could work here. Cox also owns a WSHH type mainstream AC, Magic 94.9, and both have been around from before I escaped to Florida in 2001. Call me crazy------but if Q92.9, one of the Frogs, or who knows flipped to gold based AC, I think it would be a real improvement and do well in a place like Pittsburgh.

 

[Parttimer]

WDUV works in Tampa and I think it could work here.

Again, #1 in ratings, #14 in billing.

 

[Talk_Dude]

I think it's Gino Vanelli.

Actually, Vanelli moved to Amsterdam and is popular with European audiences. And, he has had some success in Las Vegas working in the lounge act genre. If anyone is open to something that could possibly catch on as a new musical trend or fad, maybe a station that plays either Euro-pop or neo-lounge music might not be that much of a stretch. There's plenty of money being spent on tickets for concerts for artists like Michael Bublé (including his accent mark), Harry Connick, Jr., Gino Vanelli, Barry Manilow, Tony Bennett, Celine Dion, and others of that genre. Between Las Vegas and Branson, Missouri, lots of radio airplay has-beens are performing their old songs as well as new material and covers that are becoming new standards. Supposedly, the new casinos in Pittsburgh are going to have live entertainment, including some of the same artists that play places like Vegas, Branson, Atlantic City, and other casinos.

There are already stations that call themselves "Martini Lounge Radio" that play songs by artists like Dean Martin, Jackie Gleason, Guy Lombardo, Walter Wanderly, Peggy Lee, Joe Mooney, Herbie Mann, Xavier Cugat, Aqua Velvets, Louis Armstrong, iCubanismo!, Dave Barbour, The Ventures, Ulterior Motive, Herb Alpert and more. Maybe the time is right for a variation on that theme that also includes the new crop of American and European lounge style artists.

I don't know if Pittsburgh is the right place for such a format. It seems to me it would work best in a city with a relatively large number of second-generation yuppies. That format wouldn't appeal to me, but I think it would appeal many other people, maybe enough to be a profitable niche.

 

[Parttimer]

I think it's Gino Vanelli.

Actually, Vanelli moved to Amsterdam and is popular with European audiences.

So is David Hasselhoff.

But seriously, the niche kind of stuff you're talking about can probably only work in the top 5 markets, where there's enough ad money to keep the lights on even if you're 37th in the ratings.

And there were classical formats in NY (The NY Times owned the station IIRC), and I think DC, they have gone off the air in the past year or so.

 

[smartestguyintheroom]

Doing a very soft, gold based AC has merit in markets with above average median age such as Pittsburgh, Tampa, etc. There are a few keys to making it work financially. In Tampa, Cox has other formats with more advertiser (read that 25-54) appeal. WDUV does generate reasonable revenue on it's own. When bundled with the other formats owned by Cox it helps the company grab a higher revenue share in appropriate avails. This is probably the model for their move in Miami.

Depending on the operator it could work in Pittsburgh. But it would have to be bundled with other formats. There would have to be enough stations co-owned to bundle.

No doubt, if done right, it would generate an audience. The demo skew would be older.

 

[fromtheinsideout]

Radio predictions for the year 2011, I can have some fun with that.........

1. Given the success of BOB a new, male named format emerges called HAL, formatted with music from science fiction movie sound tracks. John Williams is hired to host the morning show, but is found to not be "Pittsburgher" enough. so is instead replaced by John L Williams.

2. Arbitron is forced to recalibrate how the PPM works to measure negative listeners, when people rise from the dead to turn off radios that are on WMNY.

3. Chris Mack is given a talk show that lasts all of one week before being removed from the air. Chris invites callers on so he can "layeth the Macketh down on their roody poo candy a$$e$." Lawsuits follow from the WWE for copyright infringement and from Mark Madden for gimmick infringement.

4. An urban Christian format arises, featuring the DJ stylings of Nun You Business, MC Pope and Brother Matt. Overnights are full of dead air, or as they call it, silent meditation.

5. Clear Channel piles up the financial losses when, in an effort to protect DVE, it puts everyone with more talent than Jim Krenn under contract to keep them off the air, only to realize that there just isn't enough money.

6. The winner of "Best New Talent" during the AIR awards voice tracks his acceptance speech from Duluth, Minnesota.

7. Greg Linelli is informed of what his "other projects" are, mainly running across Greentree Road to fetch Starbucks for the on air talents.

8. KISS FM becomes the only station in the market to play any music written and recorded after the year 2000.

9. WLTJ offers deep cuts of adult contemporary music and begins playing B sides of Air Supply records.

10. KDKA AM promotes itself as all local talk all the time by unveiling a new overnight show called "Pratte Falls" which consists of Rob Pratte's on air screwups on tape delay. There is such an abundance of material that Dr. Knowledge is let go.

 

[trefdawg]

....and in other news a windmill and an armadillo.

 

[pman44]

Market Predictions:

1--Life in a shrinking market--the FAN's best fresh talent, Greg Gianotti, leaves for a bigger market.

2--At it's one year anniversary, the FAN's maximizes profits by cutting 1 person from each of it's duo shows and running syndicated programming from 11 pm to 5:40 am

3--Readjusting it's efforts to a more realistic competitor, KDKA-AM replaces it's 9 am- 4 pm talk shows with "beautiful music". WJAS responds by adding a polka hour at noon. The fight is on.

4--Following the untimely demise of it's long-time benefactor, KQV goes "Urban" in a desperate attempt at survival. Ratings double, but is it enough?

5--Tired of the constant criticism by all Pittsburgh media, the Pirates buy WZUM and make it the flagship station of a new Pirate Network.

6--Sensing an underserved market, Clear Channel retains only Quinn & Rose and Rush Limbaugh and plays syndicated Latino music the rest of the time.
Happy New year!

 

[Talk_Dude]

WDUV works in Tampa and I think it could work here.

Again, #1 in ratings, #14 in billing.

So you've said. But you haven't mentioned the comparison of billings to expenses. MsMusicRadio specifically said, "Somebody wises up and flips an FM to automated soft oldies," and implied that is what WDUV does. Wouldn't a fully automated station with one morning jock to "do public appearances at walker club rallies" have low enough expenses be profitable even coming in at #14 in billings?

 

[Parttimer]

WDUV works in Tampa and I think it could work here.

Again, #1 in ratings, #14 in billing.

So you've said. But you haven't mentioned the comparison of billings to expenses. MsMusicRadio specifically said, "Somebody wises up and flips an FM to automated soft oldies," and implied that is what WDUV does. Wouldn't a fully automated station with one morning jock to "do public appearances at walker club rallies" have low enough expenses be profitable even coming in at #14 in billings?

Yeah, they make money, modest as it is because of their low overhead. But I doubt they are making more than the stations everyone thinks should go to that format. Even with a "full" staff, LTJ pays very poorly, and their 25-54s, which is still where the money comes from, are better than they would be under the Soft AC format. So this would be a step backward financially for anyone with a full-market signal.

About the only way this would make sense would be something along the lines of, if Keymarket was still controlling 98.3 and had it as one of the Frogs, then they could do something like this on 104.3 and it would be plus business.

Otherwise, it's a net loss for anyone else.

 

[KeyTimes950]

First of all, I predict more posts that feature both intended and unintended humor. I still double over thinking about one post regarding the merger of Star 100.7 and B94.

I think a lot of this year's activity will be more reactive than proactive. 2010 was an unusual year, showing this market to have some real arthritis in its dying process. (I am NOT calling anything that happened last year "growing pains" because that would suggest the Pittsburgh market had somehow turned around after the slippage of the past half-century.)

I would not be surprised if Salem was thinking about bringing a "Fish FM" format into Pittsburgh, though I wonder where it would go. K-Love may have peaked at a 2.5 share but that's not bad given all the fractional shares one finds with the new PPMs.

Someone buying a daytimer licensed to Wilkinsburg and bringing in a low-power FM that would allow 24-hour coverage surely is screaming URBAN to me, but after some of the strange twists and turns of the past 18 months I might just be hearing things.

I would not be surprised if Fox Sports Radio turned up as an overnight format somewhere, perhaps KQV or WMNY (if Renda wanted to run something during what now are off-air hours from 11 p.m.-5 a.m.) or as a backup on KDKA-FM, and those are really wild guesses, but it is not coming back as a fulltime format anytime soon.

Just a few thoughts. What do I know?

 

[cingram]

I would not be surprised if Salem was thinking about bringing a "Fish FM" format into Pittsburgh, though I wonder where it would go. K-Love may have peaked at a 2.5 share but that's not bad given all the fractional shares one finds with the new PPMs.

I pitched Chuck Gratner on switching to "Fish" on 101.5 and building a nighttime directional array for WPIT. He
listened politely, but 101.5 was making too much money - and 730 would have been a highly expensive project.
He did say at the time (c. 2001) that if they had another FM in the market, he would do it. Salem should have
bought 106.7 for that purpose, but things are different now, and I doubt there's room for a second CCM format.

C.

 

[FreddyE1977]

WZUM is purchased by a mysterious, shadowy group out of Greensburg. They file for an upgrade to 9000 watts,
day and night, directional. When political issues continue to cloud the future of their tower site, they also buy
Crafton Borough. WZUM returns to the air on Halloween as the powerful new home of Klezmer Punk in the tri-state area.

Dr. James Winer makes radio history one Sunday morning in May when he becomes the first radio personality to appear
simultaneously on every Pittsburgh AM frequency at the same time.

KDKA finally takes the advice of a shrewd marketing consultant which they found on an internet chat board and re-christens their morning show as "The KDKA Morning Train Wreck". Larry Richert is your "engineer" and John Shumway your "conductor" as they careen from one blooper to another, with whistle and steam train sound effects running throughout in the background. The sound of actual train wrecks during the traffic reports does cause some furious listener backlash, however.

The Fan creates a major buzz when they move Marty Griffin over from KD AM to co-host their new morning show with Rocco DeMaro. Promotional spots claiming that The Fan morning show now has "the only two certifiably brain damaged talk show hosts in America" draws strong protests from activist groups, as well as a copyright infringement lawsuit from Mark Madden.

WAOB suffers a precipitous 25% drop in their ratings when Mrs. Agnes Blutonarski, 89, of Morningside, passes away in early September.

BOB FM makes national headlines in April when a glitch in their automation system early one Saturday morning causes the station to play "Timothy" over and over for 59 hours in a row. Station management would later explain that the new PAT bus schedule made it extremely difficult for a station employee to make it in to Center City Towers to hit the reset button.

After six months of running a nightlight pointer for Radio Disney, WWCS finally flips formats and becomes Pittsburgh's first all-Spanish station. Filing for a COL change to "Beechview", they become the favorite station of literally dozens of native Spanish speakers in Pittsburgh, instantly blowing them far past WAOB in the ratings.

WPGB suffers a dramatic ratings decline when they announce that Pirate Baseball will be back for another season. They are
further stung when post-game host Greg Linelli quits just one month into the season, saying that he had been offered a more
lucrative gig as a barista at Starbucks on Green Tree Road.

Pittsburgh International Airport is completely shut down in March after reports of mysterious radio interference that was affecting aircraft navigation systems throughout the region. An extensive FCC investigation would later reveal that the cause of the interference was the IBOC digital transmission coming from WDDZ. The Department of Homeland Security responds by issuing an advisory to radio stations to avoid playing Justin Bieber records during hours when IBOC is in use.

WBGG attempts to break the Guinness World Record for playing concurrent programs simultaneously. The previous record of 29 had been set by WPYT in early 2009. Alas, the attempt fails at 16 when the processors overload and the pre-amp circuits fry, putting ESPN 970 off the air for eight weeks.

Eddie Edwards denies persistent rumors that he is planning to buy WKZV and flip them to an Urban format.

WMNY shocks analysts when they post their first quarter in the black. Spokespersons for Renda Broadcasting say the turnaround was produced through increased revenue streams that were generated by callers to the Janus Investments Toll-Free Caller Line, and emailers to the Subway Inbox, who reached hosts at the Day Automotive Studios, who were speaking into their Meineke Discount Muffler Microphones and wearing their River City Saloon headphones, while monitoring the Lutheran Distributing VU Meters with the Coit Rug Cleaning pots.

 

[Talk_Dude]

I would not be surprised if Salem was thinking about bringing a "Fish FM" format into Pittsburgh, though I wonder where it would go. K-Love may have peaked at a 2.5 share but that's not bad given all the fractional shares one finds with the new PPMs.

I pitched Chuck Gratner on switching to "Fish" on 101.5 and building a nighttime directional array for WPIT. He
listened politely, but 101.5 was making too much money - and 730 would have been a highly expensive project.
He did say at the time (c. 2001) that if they had another FM in the market, he would do it. Salem should have
bought 106.7 for that purpose, but things are different now, and I doubt there's room for a second CCM format.

C.

Here in Atlanta we have several Christian music stations. Granted, this is a bigger market and it's in the buckle of the Bible belt. But CCM is no longer the musical monolith it once was. There is so much variety in Christian music today that it's possible to have two CCM stations in the same market with almost totally different sounds and playlists. I stopped listening to "The Fish" here in Atlanta because it has transitioned to playing only modern sounding CCM pop that's dominated by bands that sound like current CHR except with Christian lyrics. Other CCM stations down here tend to play more of the CCM artists that have a more country, southern rock, or classic rock sound to their music.

Basically, one CCM station in town could appeal to Christian teens and 20-somethings, while the other could appeal to Christian adults. The truth be told, until the Fish went teenybopper CCM, I listened to it because I liked the music more than because of strong religious interest in the lyrics. A lot of the CCM songs they used to play had that old-time classic rock sound that I really like, and that's what attracted me to listen, not the lyrics.

 

[trefdawg]

Freddy...love that post! ;D

 

[Pratte4Life]

Not only was Fred's post great, but I think it shows an example of the great creativity so many people do have on this board.

 

[corporateradiosucks]

Not only was Fred's post great, but I think it shows an example of the great creativity so many people do have on this board.

Agreed. The only flaw is in giving BOB enough credit that they would be creative enough to play "Timothy" in the first place. I think it is far more likely that the 59 hour marathon would be of "Don't Speak" by No Doubt.

 

[MarkLaRoi]

Evening radio will become a hit again!

 

[danikayser84]

Now that the WBZZ calls are gone in Albany, think Star 100.7 might dump WZPT for the WBZZ calls? It'd be a good idea on paper