Market Rankings

[Davradio]

Since we all love to talk about ratings and all-- I was thinking-- if the transplants from Lousiana and for some small part Houston and Galveston, that have come to the Dallas/Ft. Worth area, would we change rankings from number five to a hight rank? (Now some of this thought is just pure speculation and some of it is valid) since some residents from Lousiana have indeed put down roots here for the longer haul that just six months-- they might be here for a while longer-- the metroplex resident number is surely to go up-- but will it be enough to change rankings!

Just a thought!

<P ID="signature">______________
Dave Michaels
Davradio Productions
Dallas, Texas</P>

 

[bluescreen]

> Since we all love to talk about ratings and all-- I was
> thinking-- if the transplants from Lousiana and for some
> small part Houston and Galveston, that have come to the
> Dallas/Ft. Worth area, would we change rankings from number
> five to a hight rank? (Now some of this thought is just
> pure speculation and some of it is valid) since some
> residents from Lousiana have indeed put down roots here for
> the longer haul that just six months-- they might be here
> for a while longer-- the metroplex resident number is surely
> to go up-- but will it be enough to change rankings!
>
> Just a thought!
>

Well to become market #4 we'd have to absorb ~1.2 million folks as we're at 4.67 million and San Francisco is 5.85 million. New Orleans is listed as Market #46 - pop. 1.08 million. We could see a sizeable gain but probably not enough to move us up.

 

[arnoldevns]

> the metroplex resident number is surely
> to go up-- but will it be enough to change rankings!
>
> Just a thought!
>

In a word - no.

Current Arbitron estimates have 4,672,400 people 12+ in the #5 ranked DFW market.

At #4 is San Francisco with 5,850,900. So we'd have to have a gain of 1,178,500 to tie - assuming there is no gain in SF. Put another way, that's a gain of 25.22% in population 12+.

We might gain 50,000 new residents out of this situation, but not 1.1 million.

The bigger impact will be way down the chart with New Orleans and Baton Rouge markets.

 

[Phantom]

> > Since we all love to talk about ratings and all-- I was
> > thinking-- if the transplants from Lousiana and for some
> > small part Houston and Galveston, that have come to the
> > Dallas/Ft. Worth area, would we change rankings from
> number
> > five to a hight rank? (Now some of this thought is just
> > pure speculation and some of it is valid) since some
> > residents from Lousiana have indeed put down roots here
> for
> > the longer haul that just six months-- they might be here
> > for a while longer-- the metroplex resident number is
> surely
> > to go up-- but will it be enough to change rankings!
> >
> > Just a thought!
> >
>
> Well to become market #4 we'd have to absorb ~1.2 million
> folks as we're at 4.67 million and San Francisco is 5.85
> million.


And, the traffic is hell in San Francisco .

 

[DFDubya]

Re: Market Rankings--PREDICTIONS

> Since we all love to talk about ratings and all-- I was
> thinking-- if the transplants from Lousiana and for some
> small part Houston and Galveston, that have come to the
> Dallas/Ft. Worth area, would we change rankings from number
> five to a hight rank? (Now some of this thought is just
> pure speculation and some of it is valid) since some
> residents from Lousiana have indeed put down roots here for
> the longer haul that just six months-- they might be here
> for a while longer-- the metroplex resident number is surely
> to go up-- but will it be enough to change rankings!
>
> Just a thought!
>
-------------------------------------------------------


KATRINA COULD ALTER MARKET SIZES & RANKINGS

Hurricane Katrina's wrath could have a significant effect on the population of the affected areas, and therefore significantly alter market sizes and rankings.

This study focuses on New Orleans, Louisiana, currently the #47 market with a population of 1,079,000. Initial polling had indicated that as many as 30% of the residents of that city may not resettle there once the initial disaster has passed. But where would they go? Residents have indicated that they would most likely resettle within 100-150 miles of their former home, and in our study, three main areas have been identified as the markets likely to experience a population surge due to refugee relocation: Baton Rouge, La., Jackson, Ms. and Lafayette, La.

The following forecasts on market sizes show changes in population and market rank based on two scenarios. While 30% expressed a likely desire to move, not all can or will. This study bases its forecast on a 10% and a 20% decline in New Orleans' population. Until further data can be collected on the preference level with regard to location displaced persons would have for a new home, these figures assume an equal migration of persons to each of the above-mentioned destination cities.

THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ASSUME A 10% DECLINE IN NEW ORLEANS' POPULATION
Evenly distributed population to destination cities

New Orleans, Louisiana

POPULATION PRE-KATRINA.....1,079,000
POPULATION POST-KATRINA.....971,100
POPULATION LOSS....................- 107,900
MARKET SIZE PRE-KATRINA.....# 47
MARKET SIZE POST-KATRINA...# 53
MARKET SIZE LOSS..................- 6

Baton Rouge, Louisiana

POPULATION PRE-KATRINA.....529,100
POPULATION POST-KATRINA...565,066
POPULATION GAIN...................+ 35,966
MARKET SIZE PRE-KATRINA.....# 83
MARKET SIZE POST-KATRINA....# 77
MARKET SIZE GAIN.....................+ 6

Jackson, Mississippi

POPULATION PRE-KATRINA.....386,400
POPULATION POST-KATRINA...422,366
POPULATION GAIN...................+ 35,966
MARKET SIZE PRE-KATRINA.....# 122
MARKET SIZE POST-KATRINA...# 106
MARKET SIZE GAIN...................+ 16

Lafayette, Louisiana

POPULATION PRE-KATRINA.....435,100
POPULATION POST-KATRINA....471,066
POPULATION GAIN....................+ 35,966
MARKET SIZE PRE-KATRINA.....# 103
MARKET SIZE POST-KATRINA...# 93
MARKET SIZE GAIN..................+ 10

THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ASSUME A 20% DECLINE IN NEW ORLEANS' POPULATION
Evenly distributed population to destination cities

New Orleans, Louisiana

POPULATION PRE-KATRINA.....1,079,000
POPULATION POST-KATRINA.....863,200
POPULATION LOSS..................- 215,800
MARKET SIZE PRE-KATRINA.....# 47
MARKET SIZE POST-KATRINA...# 58
MARKET SIZE LOSS..................- 9

Baton Rouge, Louisiana

POPULATION PRE-KATRINA.....529,100
POPULATION POST-KATRINA...601,033
POPULATION GAIN...................+ 71,933
MARKET SIZE PRE-KATRINA.....# 83
MARKET SIZE POST-KATRINA...# 73
MARKET SIZE GAIN...................+ 10

Jackson, Mississippi

POPULATION PRE-KATRINA.....386,400
POPULATION POST-KATRINA...458,333
POPULATION GAIN...................+ 71,933
MARKET SIZE PRE-KATRINA.....# 122
MARKET SIZE POST-KATRINA...# 98
MARKET SIZE GAIN...................# 24

Lafayette, Louisiana

POPULATION PRE-KATRINA.....435,100
POPULATION POST-KATRINA....507,033
POPULATION GAIN...................+ 71,933
MARKET SIZE PRE-KATRINA.....# 103
MARKET SIZE POST-KATRINA...# 87
MARKET SIZE GAIN..................+ 16

Under this scenario, Baton Rouge will be a bigger market then New Orleans!

THE FOLLOWING FIGURES ASSUME A 40% DECLINE IN NEW ORLEANS' POPULATION
Evenly distributed population to destination cities

New Orleans, Louisiana

POPULATION PRE-KATRINA.....1,079,000
POPULATION POST-KATRINA.....647,400
POPULATION LOSS..................- 431,600
MARKET SIZE PRE-KATRINA.....# 47
MARKET SIZE POST-KATRINA...# 70
MARKET SIZE LOSS..................- 23

Baton Rouge, Louisiana

POPULATION PRE-KATRINA.....529,100
POPULATION POST-KATRINA...672,966
POPULATION GAIN...................+ 143,866
MARKET SIZE PRE-KATRINA.....# 83
MARKET SIZE POST-KATRINA...# 68
MARKET SIZE GAIN...................+ 15

Jackson, Mississippi

POPULATION PRE-KATRINA.....386,400
POPULATION POST-KATRINA...530,266
POPULATION GAIN...................+ 143,866
MARKET SIZE PRE-KATRINA.....# 122
MARKET SIZE POST-KATRINA...# 83
MARKET SIZE GAIN...................+ 39

Lafayette, Louisiana

POPULATION PRE-KATRINA.....435,100
POPULATION POST-KATRINA....582,966
POPULATION GAIN...................+ 143,866
MARKET SIZE PRE-KATRINA.....# 103
MARKET SIZE POST-KATRINA...# 75
MARKET SIZE GAIN..................+ 28


Population figures and market size information available from Arbitron.com. Arbitron was not a participant in this survey.

 

[AliceTheCook]

Re: Bigger shift to be seen with local stations

Not to sound racist or ANYTHING here, but it looks like a large portion of the evacuees/refugees that came from New Orleans were younger blacks, and that will surely help K-104 and KBFB's numbers immediately. The recent Spanish attack on the ratings will probably be offset once the new residents are settled in and fill out some books. KRNB and KSOC will likely benefit, too.


> > the metroplex resident number is surely
> > to go up-- but will it be enough to change rankings!
> >
> > Just a thought!
> >
>
> In a word - no.
>
> Current Arbitron estimates have 4,672,400 people 12+ in the
> #5 ranked DFW market.
>
> At #4 is San Francisco with 5,850,900. So we'd have to
> have a gain of 1,178,500 to tie - assuming there is no gain
> in SF. Put another way, that's a gain of 25.22% in
> population 12+.
>
> We might gain 50,000 new residents out of this situation,
> but not 1.1 million.
>
> The bigger impact will be way down the chart with New
> Orleans and Baton Rouge markets.
>

 

[davideduardo]

Re: Smallish shift will take a long,long, long time.

> Not to sound racist or ANYTHING here, but it looks like a
> large portion of the evacuees/refugees that came from New
> Orleans were younger blacks, and that will surely help K-104
> and KBFB's numbers immediately. The recent Spanish attack
> on the ratings will probably be offset once the new
> residents are settled in and fill out some books. KRNB and
> KSOC will likely benefit, too.

Neither the Census Bureau nor Arbitron revise their population data on the drop of a hat.

Prior to each Fall survey (the one that started last Thursday, for example) Arbitron folds in new Census update _estimates_ that are processed by Claritas from Census Bureau data. These estimates cover what they think, in the first half of the year, is the population and demographoc composition of each market.

The Dallas updated figures being folded in over October, November and December (Fall) correspond to data collected in early 2005. If there is any permanent change in population in Dallas, it will be adjusted for by Arbitron starting in October, 2006.

I would suspect that extreme situations, like New Orleans and Baton Rouge, may be cause for either an "instant recalculation" or a notice on the data advising that the figures are subject to verification of population.

50,000 persons in Dallas is a tiny percentage of the population, and is actually smaller than the average annual increase in population over the last few years.

Also, keep in mind that any new resident will not be sampled by Arbitron until they have been at a phone number long enough to get on the SSI databases. New residents seldom get sampled until they have been in a market from 18 to 24 months on average... meaning new residents, if they never move, will not be in the sample till 2007.

 

[davideduardo]

Re: Market Rankings--Not yet.

>
> KATRINA COULD ALTER MARKET SIZES & RANKINGS
>
> Hurricane Katrina's wrath could have a significant effect on
> the population of the affected areas, and therefore
> significantly alter market sizes and rankings.

This will not be seen until Fall, 2006 and only if the Census Bureau changes the estimates for these markets and Claritas, the data provider for Arbitron, consurs. Further, any new residents will probably not be sampled until sometime in 2007.

Arbitron adjusts population one time a year, in Fall.

Arbitron might do an emergency adjustment for NO if they have an offical estimate they can rely on. Otherwise,t hey will wait until the Census Bureau does new estimates in 2006.