Market size

[edbealtherapking]

Alot of people said that they are not coming back to the big easy . If so , how far down do you think New Orleans radio market will drop ? What Radio station ( or stations ) will change there format because of Population change ? <P ID="signature">______________
Jack Format is bad for radio .</P>

 

[RFLA]

> Alot of people said that they are not coming back to the big
> easy . If so , how far down do you think New Orleans radio
> market will drop ? What Radio station ( or stations ) will
> change there format because of Population change ?
>


It has been said that people's emotions are highest right now with a lot of people saying they won't be back,etc. etc. On that point, it should be revisited after about a year after people get their emotions in check, some realize they can't make it elsewhere due to the line of work they did or other factors such as now having to care for family etc.

But given current ideas, New Orleans will still be a top 100 market in my opinion and probably drop back into the 70s or so for a few years depending upon people coming back, new immigrants coming in ,and other factors happening that could possibly drive it back up.

The New Orleans DMA had more than just Orleans parish (parish New Orleans is in) in the survey and Jefferson and some other parishes are already trying to get back to normal and will be pretty much back to normal within the year. People are moving back to NOLA with some just moving to another area within the DMA to get away from the lower lying areas of New Orleans but I see a good 60-70% or more moving back with the other areas maybe changing in racial makeup after this (possibly with more asian and Hispanic given the current opinion of 9th ward residents on-tv currently about coming back) over the long run as we will have a labor market needing the skills that most of these ethnic minorities possess.

The New Orleans DMA will probably never being number 46 again, but I would say a possiblity of making the 50s in about 5-10 years if ethnic growth comes like I am expecting it to here.


On radio stations, look for those without deep pockets to either take a long time to come back on or be forced to give up their licenses such as the worry about WRBH who was running on listener support to keep the station going but is now in jepordy, some of the religious Amers on the band, and others who will need deep pockets to survive.

Some articles such as what I've seen on msnbc http://msnbc.msn.com/id/9567668/ predict New Orleans will become a "white" town again... Whereas I see some of the numbers going down for traditionally high rated stations such as WQUE and WYLD, I don't think you will see format changes that wouldn't have occured normally in the DMA for a few years to come (as I said, If more immigrants come in, I expect to see maybe a few more ethnic stations but we are talking a good 5 years away)

Since you are asking the question, what was your take on our market?

RFLA

 

[DeadElvis]

Well,

There are really too many variables now to draw any sort of a cogent answer. I think we can all agree that New Orleans’ days as a top-50 market are over, and that the City will be hard pressed to ever return.

To begin to get an idea of what the City will become from a population standpoint, we must keep these factors in mind.

First, Orleans Parish was poor -- very poor, indeed. In fact, according to Census data, nearly 30% of the City/Parish was living below the poverty level. OK, why is that important? People that have little have little to lose. Most of the impoverished New Oleanians have set up housekeeping in towns like Houston, Baton Rouge, Little Rock, Memphis, or the like. They have found places to live, put their kids in school, gotten jobs, and basically become a welcome addition to the communities they are in. So, flash forward a year, or so, when housing may (or may not) be available for these folks. Are they going to pick up stakes and start over again? Probably not. And the rich aristocracy of the City? They can afford NOT to return, if they desire.

How many people are we talking about? A bunch. While I have no breakout of how many people fall into various economic brackets, we do know that the City is 67% black. MOST, but not all, of those folks are poor. That’s a big drop in population that, in all likelihood, will not be returning. At least for now.

Second, the suburbs. Jefferson Parish had a population similar to Orleans before the storm – just under ½ million. Jefferson Parish is much more affluent than Orleans; only about 10% were below the poverty line. Unlike Orleans, Jefferson has a strong middle class. And, Jefferson was not as hard hit as Orleans. So, one might wonder if the population there will soon return to near-normal. Again, we can’t know. The problem is that Jefferson Parish, while separate from Orleans, has its economy intimately tied to the Crescent City. Many in the Parish commuted into the City, and then went home to Metairie, or Harvey, or Gretna at night. Those jobs are not there, at the moment. So, we have many of the same issues as we have in Orleans; if those in Jefferson find a place to hand their hats “temporarily,” will they ever return?

Of course, the suburbs don’t stop at Jefferson Parish. St. Bernard? Done. St. Tammany? A mess in spots. So, without the support of the suburbs and their populations, how fast can the Orleans-based jobs return? Yes, it’s a chicken-and-egg sort of question.

And, then one has to take into account the health of the New Orleans area prior to the Hurricane. Again, according to the census data, the New Orleans metro was growing at a rate significantly below the national average in the period running from 1990-2000. Surely, this does not bode well for the ongoing growth now. Further, New Orleans’ reputation for high-crime, poor schools and corrupt government will have to be addressed before significant progress can be made.

But, all is not lost. There are some folks who will return. Tulane University, New Orleans’ largest private employer, will be back up and running in the Spring. The hospitals will rebuild (although there is some question as to whether the private practice docs, who have lost their practices, will be back to full levels.) And, federal dollars will be flowing into the area like alcohol flows in the French Quarter. That, in itself, will help.

So, let’s guess here. Let’s look forward a year. Let’s just suppose that ½ of the populace has returned. That would give the region a population of ~500,000. Rankwise, that’s in the 80s, on par with present day Baton Rouge (although what will become of Baton Rouge is an interesting question; it could flirt with top-60, or so, if rumors are true). What happens 5 or 10 years hence is anyone’s guess. It all depends on what the new New Orleans looks like. Will they seriously address the serious infrastructure issues of the City, or just tidy up a bit? Will they really tackle the environmental mess left in the wake of Katrina, or just move some dirt around? While New Orleans is indeed in a tragic situation, it is also a clean slate. It really can make a better city. I am dubious, though, about whether that will happen.

Of course, I could be wrong about all of this.

DE

 

[DeadElvis]

An addition to my previous post...

I was just reading some information that certainly bodes ill for the near and mid-term in the City.

It appears as if Charity and University Hospitals may not survive. Damage was so extensive, it seems, that it may be cost-prohibitive to repair. Health care policy is something I know a bit about. So, I have to wonder... how can you run a large metropolitan region without a public hospital? Sadly, you can't.

LSU will be hard-pressed to keep its medical school functioning without a hospital. Med schools are in big cities for a reason -- you have to have a large patient base from which to teach. This will be tough.

I am told by VERY reliable sources that Tenet Memorial is also in the same boat. In fact, some have opined, that ALL hospitals in the City will have to close. (See nola.com). It is also stated that as many as 6000 doctors have been displaced. If these doctors set up shop in another town, and begin establishing a patient base and a network of referring doctors, they will not return to New Orleans.

Wow. This is scary, indeed, for New Orleans. If there is no medical infrastructure, the City simply cannot come back. Period. Sure, there will be some open patient beds in the suburbs, but that's just not enough.

The medical infrastructure problem is far-reaching. Cities like Baton Rouge, Jackson, and Mobile do not and will not have the spare hospital beds to accommodate too many new residents. And, in states like Mississippi ehere building any sort of in-patient facility requires a Certificate of Need, it will be a long time until more beds are available. Does that mean that Houston, Dallas, Memphis, etc., are better positioned to take in the new influx?

So, perhaps earlier numbers suggested might be a bit high? I dunno.

DE

 

[Josh]

> An addition to my previous post...
>
> I was just reading some information that certainly bodes ill
> for the near and mid-term in the City.
>
> It appears as if Charity and University Hospitals may not
> survive. Damage was so extensive, it seems, that it may be
> cost-prohibitive to repair. Health care policy is something
> I know a bit about. So, I have to wonder... how can you run
> a large metropolitan region without a public hospital?
> Sadly, you can't.
>
Charity and Mercy (Lindy Boggs) won't be rebuilt.

> LSU will be hard-pressed to keep its medical school
> functioning without a hospital. Med schools are in big
> cities for a reason -- you have to have a large patient base
> from which to teach. This will be tough.

LSU Medical School is currently housed in Baton Rouge and will return to New Orleans probably by the first of the year or later.
>
> I am told by VERY reliable sources that Tenet Memorial is
> also in the same boat. In fact, some have opined, that ALL
> hospitals in the City will have to close. (See nola.com).
> It is also stated that as many as 6000 doctors have been
> displaced. If these doctors set up shop in another town,
> and begin establishing a patient base and a network of
> referring doctors, they will not return to New Orleans.

Mercy Hospital (Lindy Boggs) in Mid-City will not reopen, I know there are a couple of other hospitals that won't be reopening, but I can't remember which.

>
> Wow. This is scary, indeed, for New Orleans. If there is
> no medical infrastructure, the City simply cannot come back.
> Period. Sure, there will be some open patient beds in the
> suburbs, but that's just not enough.

The medical infastructure will return and be even better than before.
In order for the city to be repoened there were plans put into effect in the medical world of New Orleans.
>
> The medical infrastructure problem is far-reaching. Cities
> like Baton Rouge, Jackson, and Mobile do not and will not
> have the spare hospital beds to accommodate too many new
> residents. And, in states like Mississippi ehere building
> any sort of in-patient facility requires a Certificate of
> Need, it will be a long time until more beds are available.
> Does that mean that Houston, Dallas, Memphis, etc., are
> better positioned to take in the new influx?
>
> So, perhaps earlier numbers suggested might be a bit high?
> I dunno.
>
> DE
>
<P ID="signature">______________
No Radio Station Plays the Same Song, You Just Listen Too Much!</P>