After reading the last threads regarding the May Trend I remind everyone:
IT IS JUST A TREND!
This trend highlights my point that trends are interesting, but meaningless. Here are some great examples:
* KMPS: had declined for two or three trends, but in May jump to number one
again in every key demo. What is the truth here? The truth is that we won't know until a four book is in next January if WOLF has hurt KMPS or KMPS continues to roll along. April would have indicated KMPS was over, May would have indicated they are top dog again.
*Stern: BJ Shea had a huge January and then declined for three straight trends and in April was literally in last place in the market. In May he jumped to first. Unweighted trending. We will know how he is doing at the end of the year when four full books arrive. An average of the first five shows BJ at about 1/2 of Howard Stern's share, which puts him middle of the pack, but doing better than most of the Stern replacements.
*MOVIN: You are kidding right? The May trend runs from the last week in April until the third week in May. KLSY's audience is just now figuring out there is a new station on the air. MOVIN wasn't even on the first days of the trend and didn't start TV advertising until the last week. Way to soon to know anything, talk to me next Spring. KPLZ had a huge trend, like they do every Spring, it had nothing to do with KLSY or MOVIN.
*KCMS: If you believed the April trend they owned the market. If you believe May they lost 2/3rds of their audience. The truth is in the four book.
My final example of why trends mean nothing.
Real winners: KMPS had a great trend and despite a couple of poor trends still does well even with a new competitor and will hold their audience. WOLF has become a solid second place Country with strong 18-34 numbers. KRWM remains a solid AC, KPLZ did its usual rebound with their Spring promotion and their morning show remains strong on a four book and especially in May. KZOK is a powerhouse, this trend was off, but on a four book they own it in men. KMTT had a horrid trend, but last trend they were huge and on a four book they rock. KUBE and the T-MAn morning show own 18-34, no one is close. Stations that stay consistent win and don't react to single books or trends will win year in and year out where it counts: it ad dollars.
Losers: KBKS is in trouble, down on a four book, book to book and looking beaten in this trend, KLSY's final trend highlighted an ugly four-book (they needed a format change), KNDD is down in trends and a four book, the KJR-FM and KBSG battle is a dead heat now on a four-book. Wonder who will win that battle for oldies?
IT IS JUST A TREND!
This trend highlights my point that trends are interesting, but meaningless. Here are some great examples:
* KMPS: had declined for two or three trends, but in May jump to number one
again in every key demo. What is the truth here? The truth is that we won't know until a four book is in next January if WOLF has hurt KMPS or KMPS continues to roll along. April would have indicated KMPS was over, May would have indicated they are top dog again.
*Stern: BJ Shea had a huge January and then declined for three straight trends and in April was literally in last place in the market. In May he jumped to first. Unweighted trending. We will know how he is doing at the end of the year when four full books arrive. An average of the first five shows BJ at about 1/2 of Howard Stern's share, which puts him middle of the pack, but doing better than most of the Stern replacements.
*MOVIN: You are kidding right? The May trend runs from the last week in April until the third week in May. KLSY's audience is just now figuring out there is a new station on the air. MOVIN wasn't even on the first days of the trend and didn't start TV advertising until the last week. Way to soon to know anything, talk to me next Spring. KPLZ had a huge trend, like they do every Spring, it had nothing to do with KLSY or MOVIN.
*KCMS: If you believed the April trend they owned the market. If you believe May they lost 2/3rds of their audience. The truth is in the four book.
My final example of why trends mean nothing.
Real winners: KMPS had a great trend and despite a couple of poor trends still does well even with a new competitor and will hold their audience. WOLF has become a solid second place Country with strong 18-34 numbers. KRWM remains a solid AC, KPLZ did its usual rebound with their Spring promotion and their morning show remains strong on a four book and especially in May. KZOK is a powerhouse, this trend was off, but on a four book they own it in men. KMTT had a horrid trend, but last trend they were huge and on a four book they rock. KUBE and the T-MAn morning show own 18-34, no one is close. Stations that stay consistent win and don't react to single books or trends will win year in and year out where it counts: it ad dollars.
Losers: KBKS is in trouble, down on a four book, book to book and looking beaten in this trend, KLSY's final trend highlighted an ugly four-book (they needed a format change), KNDD is down in trends and a four book, the KJR-FM and KBSG battle is a dead heat now on a four-book. Wonder who will win that battle for oldies?
