Merger Predictions

[jasper933]

If Sirius and XM do not merge, here are some scenarios on mergers

XM and Sirius are already partnered with DirecTV and Dish Network.

XM – DirecTV
Sirius – Dish Network

Or

Clear Channel already programs several channels on XM and at one time owned 30% of XM.

As far as CBS, do you really think Howard’s tapes went only for 2 million? There could be some underline agreements.

XM – Clear Channel
Sirius – CBS

Comments..!

 

[Evil Monkey99]

Is it even possible that the two sides could merge (Sirius and XM??)

How much would CC be hurting its terrestrial products by taking a more active role in satellite?

 

[ARK AFL]

How much would CC be hurting its terrestrial products by taking a more active role in satellite?

That might be their plan. [cue Evil Empire music]

 

[zman]

Is it even possible that the two sides could merge (Sirius and XM??)
/quote]




That was my first thought. After all if Direct TV and Dish Network were not allowed to merge I doubt SIRIUS and XM would be allowed. If they were to merge there would only be one provider of satelite radio and no competition. I just don't see that being allowed.

 

[stljohn]

They eventually will merge. There are enough subscriptions for both to remain viable once the capitalization dwindles. The duplicate infrastructure and staff, the cost of competition... eventually one will roll over and congress approves monopolies if the one company is wont be viable. Dish and DTV are both solid operations.

Personally I think XM squandered all its momentum and if siri keeps creeping up on them stockholder pressure will have them talking within 2 years.

the sat tv deals are'nt partnerships, although at one point dtv owned some xm (think they both came out of the gm-hughes alliance) but dtv sold all its xm holdings a few years back.

Xm and siri just provide content to dtv and dish.

 

[BDBopper]

I don't think a merger would be a monopoly for long. There are other sat radio providers abroad. What's to stop them from coming over the pond from Europe? One of the services over there feature a bunch of WCBS allums which I would love to be able to hear.

 

[ironbear]

There are other sat radio providers abroad. What's to stop them from coming over the pond from Europe?

Although there was once provision for 4 US satellite radio operators, the NAB and Congress got in the mix. So, there's no frequency spectrum set aside for SDARS operators in addition to XM and Sirius. WorldSpace is neither licensed nor receivable here.

 

[CTListener]

There are other sat radio providers abroad. What's to stop them from coming over the pond from Europe?

Although there was once provision for 4 US satellite radio operators, the NAB and Congress got in the mix. So, there's no frequency spectrum set aside for SDARS operators in addition to XM and Sirius. WorldSpace is neither licensed nor receivable here.

Which means that any merger proposed would create a monopoly and would be shot down, right?

So what happens if one service starts taking on serious water, the investors abandon it, it loses some major content and/or OEM deals to the other service, etc., and everyone there decides it's a lost cause? No established media megacorporation or Wall Street investment house is interested in acquiring this crippled sat-radio service and continuing its operation, so the service goes off the air and plans are made to sell off the pieces. This would leave the other sat-radio service as a monopoly. What does the government do then? Tell the survivor to leave the air? Tell the survivor to keep operating its deceased rival as a pseudo-competitor until a sucker, um, buyer comes forward?

Just what are the specifics of this supposed mandate that the two companies never be allowed to merge, anyway?

 

[stljohn]

Which means that any merger proposed would create a monopoly and would be shot down, right?

Not at all. Feds approve mergers rather then allow one or both businesses to fail. Has nothing to do with the specifics of satellite broadcasting.

They just aren't going to let to viable healthy companies combine just because they want to make more money.

NFL is analagous I think. The AFL/NFL were killing each other before they were allowed to merge and there are other monopolies being allowed to flourish like microsoft and ticketmaster while clear channel is near monopoly and southwestern bell has almost completely re-formed att.

 

[CTListener]

Which means that any merger proposed would create a monopoly and would be shot down, right?

Not at all. Feds approve mergers rather then allow one or both businesses to fail. Has nothing to do with the specifics of satellite broadcasting.

They just aren't going to let to viable healthy companies combine just because they want to make more money.

NFL is analagous I think. The AFL/NFL were killing each other before they were allowed to merge and there are other monopolies being allowed to flourish like microsoft and ticketmaster while clear channel is near monopoly and southwestern bell has almost completely re-formed att.

I followed you until the last sentence. How is Clear Channel, which owns less than 15 percent of all American radio stations, a "near monopoly"?

 

[jasper933]

I would have not guessed XM and CBS for possible merger. Who knows what may happen in the next 6 months.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/060726/072606_mediabiz.html?.v=3

 

[pabsungenis]

I followed you until the last sentence. How is Clear Channel, which owns less than 15 percent of all American radio stations, a "near monopoly"?

Because of where those 15 percent are and how concentrated within certain markets. If you have effective control of New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago airwaves, you have a monopoly.

 

[stljohn]

I followed you until the last sentence. How is Clear Channel, which owns less than 15 percent of all American radio stations, a "near monopoly"?

Because of where those 15 percent are and how concentrated within certain markets. If you have effective control of New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago airwaves, you have a monopoly.

I was engaging in relative hyperbole, Jasper, but great point Pab. My not very well thought out point was that the FCC eliminated laws designed to prevent concentration of business.

Perhaps Cable TV's goverment protected monopoly is more relevent?