NBC's future, by the numbers
> See?
> Joe Gallant may have been right. Once they sell WJAR, I bet
> they buy WHDH, or some other major market station...
Here's the deal. The magic number is 39% - that's the percentage of households any one broadcaster can reach. (The FCC still discounts the reach of UHF facilities by 50%).
NBC reaches 33.99% of the country, by the FCC's calculations.
Shedding WNCN (0.892%, reduced by half because it's a UHF, so 0.446%), WCMH (0.800%), WVTM (0.661%) and WJAR (0.595%) knocks them down by 2.502%, to 31.49, leaving them with about 8.5% left before they hit the cap. That would easily handle a Boston (2.2%), an Atlanta (1.899%) or a Detroit (1.793%) - but then, they don't NEED to shed any of those stations to make a bigger acquisition, either for cap reasons or for the cash. GE's got plenty of that, thank you.
So I'll go out on a limb and predict that a WHDH acquisition is NOT in NBC's future, no matter how many annual Joseph Gallant predictions we may see (and he's been making them for something like a decade now!)
IF Ed Ansin were selling - and I don't think he is - he'd want, and deserve, huge money for WHDH. With only two stations, he needs to get the absolute maximum amount of cash possible when it comes time for him to cash in. That's not the game GE pays when it buys properties. Look at San Francisco, where they passed up an overpriced KRON in favor of rimshotter KNTV, which was effectively a startup for them. (And, no, NBC won't be buying WCVB, either - Hearst-Argyle's ties to ABC are too tight for that to happen.)
In fact, I don't think these sales are a prelude to anything in particular. It sounds to me as though GE got an offer it couldn't refuse for a package of stations that were at best tangential to its larger goals.
If the reports are correct about which stations are being sold, and to whom, then it sounds like nothing more than a smart buy by NYTCo, which adds some larger stations to its small-market holdings in some growing markets that are close to its existing print and broadcast operations, and a smart sale by GE, which unloads its four smallest NBC O&Os for what will no doubt be a healthy profit.
I wouldn't rush to read ANYTHING more into it than that.<P ID="signature">______________
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