New Trend

[TakeItFromMe]

Well well. The first trend of the important Fall book is out and everyone seems very quiet. Could it be Entercom, the whipping boy of this website, just kicked some butt!!! Let's just talk 25-54, since everyone thinks that demo is so hot.

In October your big winners were KMTT, KTTH and WOLF. I know it is just a trend, but it should shut some people up. The Mountain and their new team just delivered the top share 25-54 in the market folks. KTTH was the top AM in town, in fact, for the month of October they were the number 2 station in town 12+! And hooowwwlllllllllll. The WOLF is number three for the month and ties or beats KMPS across the Board, especially in the lucrative 18-49 and 25-54 numbers. Hoowwwllllllllllll.

Guess a lot of folks on this board are scratching their heads or other body parts right about now.

 

[redbullfan]

Either the original post was a fan of the Wolf or works there. Yes, The Wolf went up somewhere granted..KUDOS! I Live in DFW and Love our 99.5 The Wolf. I just checked the ratings for Seattle and Denver and Hot AC/Modern AC are taking the biggest hits from the new Movin/Party Rythmic Hot AC formats now. KPLZ is in last place for a full power signal in Seattle in 12+....how do you spin the 25-54 demo to wash the 12+ disaster away. Mix 100 in Denver is facing almost the same situation. Back to Seattle...Kiss 106.1 is also suffering from the new Movin 92.5!

I think Hot AC stations will be forced to either flip formats big time or move into a Modern AC role entirely or go head to head with the new Movin stations.

 

[retired]

Correction. The Mountain and their old team delivered. We were still there, remember?
Never fails. Leave and you have a good book. Try it!

 

[AQH]

Guess a lot of folks on this board are scratching their heads or other body parts right about now.

Yeah....at you.

Do you realize that the sample from the most recent period was taken before The Mountain made their moves?

 

[djdan]

Congratulations to Mike West and the old MOUNTAIN team. Number one is a great way to finish. Your last trend was stellar.

As for the WOLF, nice trend, but if you take four books into account, KMPS still soundly beats WOLF across the Board. WOLF will be around for a long time though. Unlike JACK type stations, Country is a real format and WOLF will be a top ten player in the Seattle market. Whether they can ever beat KMPS has yet to be proven.

Looking around the Country, MOVIN seems to be eating apart HOT/AC and CHR, much as JACK did and the 80's format before that. The bigger question is whether MOVIN will have staying power, or will it fade like the other niche formats. In Seattle, KBKS appears to be hurt by MOVIN and KPLZ was actually going up until this Fall trend. 12+ demo's are deceptive, but there is no question MOVIN is having an effect. They are number one in the market in cume 25-54 in October, September and August, much like JACK just one year ago.

 

[TakeItFromMe]

Hang on there folks. All I said was Entercom had a good Trend. KMTT got their new PD this summer, so I think it's fair to say this trend is hers and good job. I realize some of the staff and music ain't the same now, but give her props none the less. WOLF ain't bit KMPS yet, but did this time around. Just means both stations are gonna be going at it. The big difference is the morning show lost to the WOLF for the first time in any trend. Finally, no one has commented about the big success of KTTH. The top AM in Seattle.

I agree with the post from Dallas. HOT/AC is gettin kicked in that City, in Denver, and everywhere else by either JACK, MOVIN or a combination of both.
Modern AC was tried and failed. MIX in Dallas was one of the first to try it and it went nowhere. It was a good format but is too much of a hybrid to survive. The only reason KPLZ has hung around and got some good numbers against JACK and MOVIN this Spring was because of their old boys in the morning. Now Fall is here and maybe the Fall of the station too. (KBKS is deader than a doornail in any demo over 16)

 

[mammaknowsbest]

I won't say "I told you so." First, congratulations to the female powerhouse PD at KMTT. Kudos to her great book. Second, congratulations to the staff at WOLF for beating KMPS across the board in a trend for the first time...it is a step forward. Finally, to Mark Kaye and the brave team at MOVIN, a big congratulations for three straight months at number one 25-54 cume in Seattle. MOVIN is destroying HOT/AC like no other format. The difference is MOVIN is current based, so unlike JACK or 80's, the music keeps changing and keeps listeners interested in coming back. This time HOT/AC won't rebound. In the words of Mark Kaye: "the format had its run and its over!" HOT/AC in Seattle, Denver, Dallas, Philly are all being killed by MOVIN.

What direction will the HOT/AC's take? Some will migrate to AC, some to AAA and some will go MOVIN, before MOVIN gets them. Okay...I TOLD YA SO!

 

[redbullfan]

1. Jack and Hot AC are competitive formats.
2. Don't assume Movin will take out Hot AC in every market even though Seattle's Star 101.5 is being killed. Mix 94.1 in Las Vegas had a bad month while Party 93.1 blew up with a awesome trend. Los Angeles's Movin is struggling still...jury still out there. Jury still out in San Fran with Movin there. While Mix 100 in Denver is way down the Jury is still out with Party there. The Dallas battle is still in Progress with future trends to prove who knows what.
3. Modern AC Alice 105.9 in Denver took a small hit compared with Mix 100. Denver and Colorado Springs are proven Modern AC markets. Spokane is a huge successful Modern AC city/market. Albuqueque is another Modern AC market. Austin, Tx is another Modern AC city. Houston's Mix 96.5 is Modern AC and does well. Portland, OR is another Modern AC market with 105.1 The Buzz. There are others, but yes Modern AC is a Proven formats in various cities across the nation

 

[djdan]

Hang on everyone: its just a trend. Do you all realize how funny this is to anyone who can read an arbitron or who buys media? Look at the stations you are crowning:

MOVIN: the station has been around five months and had five up trends. Take note. It is not even as strong as JACK (which tipped out at a six share 25-54 in one trend) or THE POINT (which topped out at a 6 share for an entire book). MOVIN got an upper 4 share in September and actually dropped a full share in the October trend. Wait four books.

WOLF: the station has been around almost a year and with two trends left is clearly the second country. One trend does not a winner make

JACK: Has been falling since December of last year. This one trend is probably an aberation based on information from around the Country. Nine down Seattle trends tell the story.

KMTT: The station is good and has always been strong. They were number one this trend 25-54 and have been there before. They had a couple of off books, but have also had that happen before. Overall a strong station, that may have switched staff and music too soon.

HOT/AC: I would agree that the format is dead. There are a couple of exceptions nationally and KPLZ has shown an amazing ability to keep its core happy. Everyone pronounces it dead, yet just three trends ago it was number two 25-54 in the market, even with MOVIN. My guess is this book will be an aberation and the station will be fine.

KTTH: Please. The station is fourth 18-34 in some dayparts after being a sub one share station in the demo for its entire existance. This is not the number one AM in Seattle. Let KIRO and KOMO battle that out.

Here is a prediction for you. On a four book average at the end of 2006 the top stations in adult women will be KRWM, KCMS, KMPS and KPLZ. The top in men will be KZOK, KISW, KMPS and KIRO. The top in adults will be KMPS, KZOK and KMTT. KUBE will rule 18-34. Guess what, it was the same at the end of 2005 and will be the same at the end of 2006 and at the end of 2007.

 

[mammaknowsbest]

Redbullfan has been drinking too much Red Bull. HOT/AC is a dead format.
The only reason some still survive is the markets lack competition. Most of the markets you site are small markets (portland and under). Each of these markets typically lacks a JACK, Classic Hits, HOT/AC, AAA or MOVIN competitor. Portland just went MOVIN so it is too early to tell, early research shows the HOT/AC collapsing. In each of the other markets the modern HOT/AC survives merely because of the competitive landscape. Modern AC is a joke. Many of the stations you quote are no longer even Modern. Spokane is a real Modern, Portland's HOT/AC is not even close Houston's KHMX is hardly modern. Get real. Watch what happens in Portland now that their is a full compliment of formats in the market...the HOT/AC will die.
DJDAN you must be drinking the same Redbull. KPLZ may be able to make a living off being third or fourth in key women demos, but for how long. Take away the old morning show and ya got no station. With em, ya got a lame station with an old morning show. They may have been 2nd 25-54 two months ago, but not anymore. Forget the four book, you'd do your clients a favor if you'd look to the future every once in a while.

 

[AQH]

I won't say "I told you so." First, congratulations to the female powerhouse PD at KMTT. Kudos to her great book.

Hey Gloria Allred, The Mountain has had two program directors in its history; both female. There is no novelty in a female PD winning there.

Second, congratulations to the staff at WOLF for beating KMPS across the board in a trend for the first time...it is a step forward.

Filler text to get the Movin point. Good move to try and throw people off the scent.

Finally, to Mark Kaye and the brave team at MOVIN, a big congratulations for three straight months at number one 25-54 cume in Seattle.

Yes, congratulations on having a TV budget. What's going to happen when that money runs dry?

MOVIN is destroying HOT/AC like no other format.

Wait a second, first it was "destroying" KUBE, now it's "destroying" Hot AC? Did R&R send you some special radio Magic 8-Ball?

You couldn't beat KPLZ as KLSY, now you're claiming victory here? Never seen a station get under anyone's skin like KPLZ has yours.

The difference is MOVIN is current based, so unlike JACK or 80's, the music keeps changing and keeps listeners interested in coming back.

Wrong.

On an average day, one out of every four songs is a current or recurrent. That's 25%.

In comparison, KPLZ, your favorite station, is 50% current or recurrent.

This time HOT/AC won't rebound. In the words of Mark Kaye: "the format had its run and its over!" HOT/AC in Seattle, Denver, Dallas, Philly are all being killed by MOVIN.

Here's the problem with your ASSessment:
Dallas: The Movin' station there signed on October 2nd. This trend is only 1/3rd reflective of Movin'. And I sincerely doubt you have access to the Dallas extraps.
Denver: Doesn't have a Movin' station.
Philadelphia: Also doesn't have a Movin' station.
Seattle: KPLZ has been around for awhile, and doing well. And more advertisers put money into them than in Factoria.

What direction will the HOT/AC's take? Some will migrate to AC, some to AAA and some will go MOVIN, before MOVIN gets them. Okay...I TOLD YA SO!

Let me get this straight. You say Hot AC stations are being "killed" by Movin, and they will go to Movin', even though, as you say, there is already a Movin' station in that market? Mmmmmkay. Sounds good.


Gotta go, the local commerical break is coming up again.

 

[researcher]

Redbullfan has been drinking too much Red Bull. HOT/AC is a dead format.
The only reason some still survive is the markets lack competition. Most of the markets you site are small markets (portland and under). Each of these markets typically lacks a JACK, Classic Hits, HOT/AC, AAA or MOVIN competitor. Portland just went MOVIN so it is too early to tell, early research shows the HOT/AC collapsing. In each of the other markets the modern HOT/AC survives merely because of the competitive landscape. Modern AC is a joke. Many of the stations you quote are no longer even Modern. Spokane is a real Modern, Portland's HOT/AC is not even close Houston's KHMX is hardly modern. Get real. Watch what happens in Portland now that their is a full compliment of formats in the market...the HOT/AC will die.
DJDAN you must be drinking the same Redbull. KPLZ may be able to make a living off being third or fourth in key women demos, but for how long. Take away the old morning show and ya got no station. With em, ya got a lame station with an old morning show. They may have been 2nd 25-54 two months ago, but not anymore. Forget the four book, you'd do your clients a favor if you'd look to the future every once in a while.

Outside of Seattle, the early results for "Movin" have not been good. L.A. and S.F. both had less than a third of their previous stations - plus KBIG plays similar music to KMVN.

St. Louis was off about 33% from the old format in month 1, while Denver was status quo from the old format. However, the CC version of the format skews differently than the Burns format.

There is a chance that the format can work in a market like Seattle (where there's little competition) - as opposed to L.A. or S.F. - where there are successful Rhythmic or Urban AC's...

 

[Talking Furniture]

Wow. What a load of analysis and hyperbole from one little trend. And there seems to be some confusion about station rank for the month of October and station rank for the 3 month rolling average that is the trend. Just be careful throwing around praise for "a great book" and congratulating "powerhouse" program directors based on one month. KMTT isn't a strong station. Their ratings are very inconsistent. They have a rookie PD and a lot of programming being done by corporate committee. And, a new GM starts in a week. I predict more changes by the summer.

And, djdan has some great realistic observations on the market.

 

[BlueMalibu]

"And, djdan has some great realistic observations on the market."

As he always does...

 

[leethalweapon]

What did sort of figures did KRWM-FM score. I think there could be a bit of canabullism in the cluster. ??? Correct?

 

[djdan]

Lee: Had not looked at KRWM. They have dropped for nine straight months, which is a classic example of how not to read trends. They do that every year coming off Christmas music. They will begin to explode next trend and will have a great Fall book. I doubt MOVIN is hurting them much.

TF: You are right about the hyperbole over one trend. Always happen and I enjoy the chuckle each month on this board. You are wrong about KMTT. In 2005 the station was top three 25-54 in three trends and top five on a rolling average 25-54 for the year. In 2006, KMTT has been top three 25-54 in two trends so far and is in sixth place on a rolling 25-54 average. My bet is once Fall 06 is complete they will finish where they did last year. The big difference may be that the old PD, didn't worry about a bad book or two and stayed true to the music and staff. I can't help but wonder if the new PD and GM reacted too soon. Maybe Retired knows or maybe he is just laughing as his top finish in the October trend.

 

[Talking Furniture]

Lee: Had not looked at KRWM. They have dropped for nine straight months, which is a classic example of how not to read trends. They do that every year coming off Christmas music. They will begin to explode next trend and will have a great Fall book. I doubt MOVIN is hurting them much.

TF: You are right about the hyperbole over one trend. Always happen and I enjoy the chuckle each month on this board. You are wrong about KMTT. In 2005 the station was top three 25-54 in three trends and top five on a rolling average 25-54 for the year. In 2006, KMTT has been top three 25-54 in two trends so far and is in sixth place on a rolling 25-54 average. My bet is once Fall 06 is complete they will finish where they did last year. The big difference may be that the old PD, didn't worry about a bad book or two and stayed true to the music and staff. I can't help but wonder if the new PD and GM reacted too soon. Maybe Retired knows or maybe he is just laughing as his top finish in the October trend.

I bet if you talked with KMTT management they would express concern and disappointment with the station's consistency and numbers.

 

[redbullfan]

KPLZ is on the menu for the format flip cafe...how would you like KPLZ cooked...fried, baked, or grilled?
DJDan is so out to lunch...KPLZ has been at or near the bottom of the ratings for what seems like forever.
DJDan is so out to lunch...The Wolf continues to prove it is here to stay trend by trend...Seattle may prove to be a 2 Country station town!
DJDan is so out to lunch...Movin is slowly proving itself too just like the Wolf...remember they play some currents unlike JackFM

KPLZ is run badly. I think KPLZ can succeed only by relaunching aggressively and following 92.9 ZZU's model. I will say that Seattle can support both a successful Movin and Modern AC station. Hot AC will fail vs Movin if it doesn't market aggressively and image well. Hot AC has not failed, it has for years ignored the Rythmic music out there including Pop too; that is why Hot AC is struggling and has and will now that Movin formats have come to the scene. Remember Guy Zapolean and Burns launched Mix 96.5 in Houston back around 1990 and was the Hot AC signature station for years. The early sound of Mix and other Hot ACs was Adult CHR which included Pop and some R&B tracks that were not rap...that changed to the long term detriment of Hot AC.
I hear an entire middle ground called Pop from the late 80s thru today that is neither being covered by the Hot AC or Movin stations. Oldies or Classic Hits station have not forgotten the Pop from that era such as the Beattles, The Monkees, The Beach Boys etc, but the Pop from the late 80s thru today has been forgotton such as New Kids on The Block, N Sync, Back Street Boys etc...why?
Politics has a right, left and middle. The Parties fight for the middle...radio has forgotton the middle of radio...called Pop...neither Rock or Rythmic?!?!?!?!
HOT AC, Modern AC, Movin cover aspects from the last 20 odd years and today. Where is the middle Pop music? Movin is awesome from it's side of the music spectrum...bout time...it's way more balanced...but not perfect.

 

[djdan]

Seems iknowitall is back with a new name. We have missed your posts.
I guess I am out to lunch.

* Based on one trend you want to blow up KPLZ. The same KPLZ that is number three 25-54 women on a rolling average. Was number one 25-54 women in most dayparts in Spring and had its highest 25-54 adult book in two years this summer. Oh and they are a top five biller right now in the market.
Okay. I'm out to lunch.

* You want to launch ZZU in Seattle. Great. I buy Spokane too. ZZU had a 6.3 last Summer and the new ZZU has a 4.3 and three down trends. Demos are better. Maybe this will work, if a full-signal mainstream CHR wasn't in the Seattle market along with an alternative station that now leans modern. Spokane has neither. It would make more sense if KBKS (like ZZU) went modern, but I doubt it. Much more competition in Seattle. But heck, I'm out to lunch.

* I have said WOLF is a real station and a real format, just that it hasn't beaten KMPS on a four book. I guess we agree on this so we are both out to lunch.

*MOVIN is for real. Could be or could be the next JACK or 80's format. If they are still this strong by Summer 07. You are right and I'm out to lunch.

Can't wait to see which station has a bad trend next time so we can flip em.
In the meantime I chose to place dollars for women on KRWM, KCMS, KPLZ and KMPS. For men on KZOK, KISW, KMPS and KIRO. For adults on KMPS, KZOK, KMTT, KRWM and KCMS. 18-34 business goes to KUBE. Why? Because I am out to lunch.

 

[AQH]

KPLZ is on the menu for the format flip cafe...how would you like KPLZ cooked...fried, baked, or grilled?
DJDan is so out to lunch...KPLZ has been at or near the bottom of the ratings for what seems like forever.
DJDan is so out to lunch...The Wolf continues to prove it is here to stay trend by trend...Seattle may prove to be a 2 Country station town!
DJDan is so out to lunch...Movin is slowly proving itself too just like the Wolf...remember they play some currents unlike JackFM

Your statements about KPLZ demonstrate that you only have access to the R&R 12+ ratings. Further, it proves you have zero clue as to who KPLZ caters to.

KPLZ is run badly.

So badly their sales department keeps printing money.

I think KPLZ can succeed only by relaunching aggressively and following 92.9 ZZU's model. I will say that Seattle can support both a successful Movin and Modern AC station. Hot AC will fail vs Movin if it doesn't market aggressively and image well. Hot AC has not failed, it has for years ignored the Rythmic music out there including Pop too; that is why Hot AC is struggling and has and will now that Movin formats have come to the scene.

I can picture Kent Phillips laughing at that assessment right now.

Remember Guy Zapolean and Burns launched Mix 96.5 in Houston back around 1990 and was the Hot AC signature station for years. The early sound of Mix and other Hot ACs was Adult CHR which included Pop and some R&B tracks that were not rap...that changed to the long term detriment of Hot AC.
I hear an entire middle ground called Pop from the late 80s thru today that is neither being covered by the Hot AC or Movin stations. Oldies or Classic Hits station have not forgotten the Pop from that era such as the Beattles, The Monkees, The Beach Boys etc, but the Pop from the late 80s thru today has been forgotton such as New Kids on The Block, N Sync, Back Street Boys etc...why?

Guy Zapoleon created KHMX to address the shift in contemporary music. There was one of the biggest splits ever. The 1990 through 1996 was one of the darkest times in contemporary music. The early 1990s brought on Grunge music, which pissed off and alienated adult listeners. The younger folks went to Alternative, the older folks to Country. That's also when rhythmic started taking off. Early and mid 1990s Gangsta Rap started taking off. Then Telecom 1996 fragmented music and radio forever.

People haven't "forgotton" New Kids On The Block. They just think of them as a joke group, similar to how disco songs from the 1970s are thought of.

N Sync and Backstreet Boys were not about music, but more about creating a franchise and image for the record companies. That's when the record folks started discovering there was more money to be made in music outside of record and concert sales.

Politics has a right, left and middle. The Parties fight for the middle...radio has forgotton the middle of radio...called Pop...neither Rock or Rythmic?!?!?!?!
HOT AC, Modern AC, Movin cover aspects from the last 20 odd years and today. Where is the middle Pop music? Movin is awesome from it's side of the music spectrum...bout time...it's way more balanced...but not perfect.

Radio hasn't forgotten anyone. Times and tastes have changed.