New Year, New Predictions

[IKnowItAll]

The new shows are in place, the Seattle radio scene is set, but
before I leave town next month...HOW ABOUT A FINAL ROUND OF PREDICTIONS!
Am I Psychic, The Goddess of Knowledge, the Guru of Ratings...NO! Just your
friendly IKNOWITALL. I couldn't resist predicting how shows will do that just
started so here ya GO:

1. WOLF-FM. Small market airsound, but lack of commercials and more
music approach will let them tie or beat KMPS by Summer. HOWEVER, KMPS will
rebound quickly and remain top Seattle County station, albiet with smaller
numbers.

2. KMPS. Hurt by WOLF, but ends up the winner at the end of the year.

3 KISW. Disaster. BJ will do better than most think, but not even half of
the numbers of Howard Stern. The rest of the day will not rate at all. KISW
is back to ROCK around the clock in 2007. Yippee

4 KNDD. Adam C. in the morning. YAWN. Station stays a top three player
in 18-34 year old men and that's about it.

5. KIRO. Rebounds, after revamp of staff and approach.

6. KOMO. Will change to respond to KIRO revamp, maybe goes News/Talk instead
of just news. Strong Spring and Summer even with declining Mariners.

7. KBKS. The perpetual also-ran will do better, but never get close to KUBE.
Should switch to rhythmic by the end of the year.

8. KLSY. TIME TO SPIN THE FORMAT WHEEL! Hope they go ROCK, but doubt they
have the guts. My guess (not prediction) is Oldies, especially if KBSG leans
younger to fight KJR.

9 KMTT. Ratings decline with PD gone.

10.KPLZ. They lean toward KRWM and do better this year.

11. KJR/KBSG. Both stations decline. The audience ages, don't we all.

12. KUBE: A good shot at number one 12+ this year.

13. KRWM: Starts strong, fades with KPLZ getting older.

14. KVI/KTTH: Whatever

15. JACK: Fades by Fall. Gone in 2007

16. KZOK: The BIG WINNER. With KISW, Stern, BUZZ gone, KJR and JACK
declining. KZOK owns the 25-54 world. Rivers is Number One in the
Morning by far.


Once again, you will be amazed at my accuracy. Note last year
I correctly predicted 99% of the time. I even called the Country
flip and the format flip of the BUZZ. The only prediction that has yet to come true is Rush to KIRO,
time will tell.

That's all, Chow, Bye bye, adieu, Adios. Your Rajah of Ratings.
IKNOWITALL.

PS. Remember my prediction for the Fall book, made four months ago. Up are
KIRO, KRWM, KBKS, KPLZ, KWJZ, KBSG and KNDD. Mark my words fellow posters,
at least 6-7 predictions will come true...why...BECAUSE IKNOWITALL!<P ID="edit"><FONT class="small">Edited by IKnowItAll on 01/08/06 04:21 PM.</FONT></P>

 

[AQH]

This string oughta be good. 'Scuse me while I get the popcorn.

 

[TheOriginalLarry]

> The new shows are in place, the Seattle radio scene is set,
> but
> before I leave town next month...HOW ABOUT A FINAL ROUND OF
> PREDICTIONS!
> Am I Psychic, The Goddess of Knowledge, the Guru of
> Ratings...NO! Just your
> friendly IKNOWITALL. I couldn't resist predicting how shows
> will do that just
> started so here ya GO:
>
> 1. WOLF-FM. Small market airsound, but lack of commercials
> and more
> music approach will let them tie or beat KMPS by Summer.
> HOWEVER, KMPS will
> rebound quickly and remain top Seattle County station,
> albiet with smaller
> numbers.
>
> 2. KMPS. Hurt by WOLF, but ends up the winner at the end
> of the year.
>
> 3 KISW. Disaster. BJ will do better than most think, but
> not even half of
> the numbers of Howard Stern. The rest of the day will not
> rate at all. KISW
> is back to ROCK around the clock in 2007. Yippee
>
> 4 KNDD. Adam C. in the morning. YAWN. Station stays a
> top three player
> in 18-34 year old men and that's about it.
>
> 5. KIRO. Rebounds, after revamp of staff and approach.
>
> 6. KOMO. Will change to respond to KIRO revamp, maybe goes
> News/Talk instead
> of just news. Strong Spring and Summer even with declining
> Mariners.
>
> 7. KBKS. The perpetual also-ran will do better, but never
> get close to KUBE.
> Should switch to rhythmic by the end of the year.

....and alienate two thirds of their audience.

>
> 8. KLSY. TIME TO SPIN THE FORMAT WHEEL! Hope they go ROCK,
> but doubt they
> have the guts. My guess (not prediction) is Oldies,
> especially if KBSG leans
> younger to fight KJR.

I've been noticing a LOT of disco lately on KBSG (I can't believe I just said "disco" and KBSG in the same sentence.) Looks like they're using that approach against the more classic rock sounding KJR-FM. Could hurt KPLZ more I think.

>
> 9 KMTT. Ratings decline with PD gone.
>
> 10.KPLZ. They lean toward KRWM and do better this year.

They aren't as pillowy soft as KRWM, but as 106.9 has Delilah, 101.5 has Delilah wanna-be Josh Tesh. It's more like a younger version of KRWM maybe.
>
> 11. KJR/KBSG. Both stations decline. The audience ages,
> don't we all.

You'll probably be hearing more '80s music on both as the '60s become KIXI fodder.

>
> 12. KUBE: A good shot at number one 12+ this year.
>
> 13. KRWM: Starts strong, fades with KPLZ getting older.
>
> 14. KVI/KTTH: Whatever

They are precariously steady, but as scandals and other White House/Republican corruption is revealed, they lose some ground. But overall, the audience for conservative talk is fading away from their mid-90's peak and it's a strong indicator of a country ready for REAL change.

>
> 15. JACK: Fades by Fall. Gone in 2007
>
> 16. KZOK: The BIG WINNER. With KISW, Stern, BUZZ gone,
> KJR and JACK
> declining. KZOK owns the 25-54 world. Rivers is Number One
> in the
> Morning by far.
>
>
> Once again, you will be amazed at my accuracy. Note last
> year
> I correctly predicted 99% of the time. I even called the
> Country
> flip and the format flip of the BUZZ. The only prediction
> that has yet to come true is Rush to KIRO,
> time will tell.

If that happens....R.I.P. KIRO 1927-2006 AND KTTH. It's too big of a gamble that could trash both stations. Dave Ross should be 9-12 and KIRO has any sense, they would return what has worked back to it's rightful place..

>
> That's all, Chow, Bye bye, adieu, Adios. Your Rajah of
> Ratings.
> IKNOWITALL.
>
> PS. Remember my prediction for the Fall book, made four
> months ago. Up are
> KIRO, KRWM, KBKS, KPLZ, KWJZ, KBSG and KNDD. Mark my words
> fellow posters,
> at least 6-7 predictions will come true...why...BECAUSE
> IKNOWITALL!
>
<P ID="signature">______________
"If I were in this business only for the business, I wouldn't be in this business." Samuel Goldwyn

[email protected]


</P>

 

[ripvanwinkle]

Finally a thread worth reading. Come-on IKNOWITALL keep posting
even if you are leaving town. Looks like you may be right on all
your predictions for the Fall book, except maybe the END. Everyone
else is trending up nicely KIRO, KRWM, KBKS (though not much), KPLZ
(though not much), KWJZ, KBSG and KNDD (flat). What format will
KLSY go to? Rumor around Sandusky is an AC/Oldies or going ROCK with
no jocks. I like the AC/Oldies idea because the staff seems suited for
it. A big study in the market right now to find out what to do. Seems
KZOK could use a non-talk challenger in the morning and throughout the
day. Agree with you down the line on the rest of the stations. WOLF
may win the early battles, but KMPS will win the Country war. WOLF
will still be a solid station, I like it a lot. Wish KLSY would have
done it too.

 

[djdan]

Okay the sales geek will wiegh in. A quick look a trends
shows IKNOWITALL is 100% right on his picks for FALL, but
there is one more month left to go folks.

I agree that the WOLF will get some numbers at the expense of
KMPS and may beat them for a book or two at best. In the end,
KMPS will be your winner, especially in mornings. KISW is a
mess. BJ might get some initial tune-in, but he isn't STERN
and advertisers know it, Adam Corolla is a huge mistake. Rivers
remains your winner here in the media buying world. On the AM
dial KIRO and KOMO will do battle for advertiser dollars, other
AM's rarely get on the big buys. In the women battle, KRWM and
KPLZ will continue to own the market. KRWM will have its usual huge
Christmas book, I wonder if KPLZ will really get older and challenge
KRWM on that front. KUBE will own the 18-34 front, KNDD will continue
to get bought on male 18-34 buys and KBKS on female 18-34 and teen buys.
Billing winners for 2006? I am no Iknowitall, but here is my best guess
in order: KMPS, KIRO, KZOK, KRWM, KPLZ, KMTT. Solid performers all,
even though they face competition and have a down book or two they always
come back and win.

 

[TheOriginalLarry]

> This string oughta be good. 'Scuse me while I get the
> popcorn.


Put on your 3-D glasses too. Here's what I think will happen this year:

- KLSY tries a brand new idea in radio - Play everything backwards. Listeners are startled to discover hidden satanic messages in Kelly Clarkson songs, revealing what many listeners have been suspecting.

- The Wolf will have a problem housebreaking it's staff as they keep peeing on everything and snarling at listeners. Raw meat and Febreze are delivered on pallattes to Entercom Seattle.







>
<P ID="signature">______________
"If I were in this business only for the business, I wouldn't be in this business." Samuel Goldwyn

[email protected]


</P>