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New Year Predictions

S

Steenman

It's always fun to guess what the new year might bring so in that spirit how about we weigh in about what things might look like a year from now in the Seattle radio scene. Do we think there will be format changes, personel changes, a new "big dog" in town? Sales of stations? Consolidation? How about revenue, do we think commercial radio will have a good year?

To start the dialogue, I'll throw in my two cents, (1) I think the introduction of people meters (LPM's) in the television stations in the market will send more local and national dollars to radio. (2) I also think political is going to be a huge factor this year for stations that run those kinds of ad (primarily news and AM stations). How will more revenue affect the business locally, if at all. (3) The other huge seachange I see is stations continuing to work to monetize and provide listener and advertiser value through their on-line presence and programs.

Ok, take it away....
 
Expectations are for a flat year for radio. Local radio benefits primarily from initiative issues. The major candidates will use TV and network dollars with little trickle down to radio. Could be a rough year for local TV. Writers strike, more than the LPM will impact dollars in the first and maybe the second quarter. If Washington is not viewed a key state in the race for President, third quarter won't bail out the year. From a rep firm sales perspective, political was huge in third quarter this year for TV and AM radio, it will be tough to beat. Radio is late on the online battle.

New big dog in town? I am betting the old big dogs stay on top. 25-54 Adult winners will be KMPS, KZOK. 25-54 Male winners will be KZOK and KISW. 25-54 female winners will be KRWM and KPLZ. 18-34 will remain KUBE and KISW. First to change format? B-97.3. Smart money has them going back to their old format, or simulcasting KIRO-AM as Bonneville has done in other markets. Next change is probably MOVIN, refer to earlier threads for the obvious problems.

Okay agency guys have talked, programmers and talent take it away...
 
Used to be true, but not anymore. No Senate race in 2008, Congressional races are all considered locks for the incumbents so no party dollars. Governor's race tends to focus TV. The only hope for radio is initiatives like we had in 2007 that drives local radio dollars. Presidential will be network dollars and Washington is considered a sure Democrat state so little dollars going here. Initiatives drive radio dollars.
 
Back to the radio predictions...

KOMO will lose the Mariners after this coming season, either to Clear Channel or Bonneville. That will doom their format to further cutbacks. At the same time Bonneville will start flexing its muscle in this market, perhaps buying more properties and simulcasting KIRO on FM.
 
The big players in 2008 will be Bonneville and Entercom ??? Let me explain cowboys:
First ENTERCOM:
KISW Achieved market success in 2007 and will surpass KZOK 25-54 in 2008 With the impending retirement of Bob Rivers mid year BJ Shea will be poised to replace him against Spike and the rest of the KZOK mornings WIN ENTERCOM ;D KMTT did some buttkickin and switchin and is poised to regain its number of years gone by. WOLF will launch round two against KMPS expect some cool surprises 8). The only question mark in the bunch is THE END and it can't be worse than 2007 ;) ENtercom is a winner in 08
Second BONNEVILLE:
KIRO got its act together in the last couple of books and those cowboys are racing up the AM dial. Look at the last six trends yowzers~!!! These boys don't even need the Mariners to beat KOMO but odds are they will get em. Watch out. KIRO the big winner in 2008 with KISW :eek: KBSG can't do any worse than they did in 2007 and odds are they simulcast KIRO. The only question for Bonneville is with growing numbersMariners and a simulcast FM, JusT how big can one ole station be :p KTTH has Rush, noting momre, but who cares.

bIG OLE LOSERS:

INFINITY: KZOK has lost its lower end to KISW when Rivers goes that puts em middle of the pack :-\ KBKS is a disaster :mad: JACK will hold even and KMPS will face another attack from WOLF. Tough year for Infinity :-[

SANDESKY: KRWM has been slippin, cept for Christmas, MOVIN is already shifting and changin with bad numbers. KWJZ will be the only stable station :-\

CLEAR CHANNEL: KUBE, KJR AND KJR-AM all kinda flat. Not better, not worse :-\

FISHER: STAR kinda surprised me and came back a bit the two AM's are biting it. KIRO is beating KOMO without the Mariners or the FM Simulcast. KVI is a whatever :-\

CHRISTA; kinda think the Chiritian stuff peaked last year. Station has begun to slip a bit from a good start in 07. :-X

That's it cowboys. some winners, some losers and some surprises :p
 
So if B/Ville were to win Mariners bid ... does it make sense to put them on 770 (where Sonix are) and make it a Sports/Talk station with Glen Beck, Rush + two anchor sports teams? Could be three if you bundle the Hawks too. Seems those events wouldn't step on each other ... and leaves KIRO free to hold the News/Talk positioning every day and not just when games aren't on the air (a complaint I've raised here before about KOMO). On one hand, the M's are a huge cume boost for the station; but at the cost of some news credibility because you can't be on air with news when you're committed to carrying soundtrack to 7th inning stretch....!
 
TakeItFromMe said:
CLEAR CHANNEL: KUBE, KJR AND KJR-AM all kinda flat. Not better, not worse :-\
CHRISTA; kinda think the Chiritian stuff peaked last year. Station has begun to slip a bit from a good start in 07. :-X
Click to expand...

KUBE's day of reckoning is coming soon. Down by close to .75 rating point by this time next year.
Also, there's a threat looming for KCMS in year 2009.

I'm going to really enjoy this.
 
"KUBE's day of reckoning is coming soon. Down by close to .75 rating point by this time next year.
Also, there's a threat looming for KCMS in year 2009.

I'm going to really enjoy this."


And the reason you are going to enjoy this so much is?
 
Doubt Bob Rivers would retire as he and BJ are about the same age, and he has been #1 12 plus twice in 2007. Sounds like ya ya wishful thinking, unless there is something TakeItFromMe really knows. Also, KZOK loses it's "younger end"? Classic Rock is a broad appeal format, but 35 plus is its Bread and Butter obviously. You know who lost their younger end? KNDD. KNDD is a dead stick, and having Carola compete with KISW is dumb.

That said, Entercom will continue to do very well with KISW because it is branded and programmed brilliantly with strong talent in all dayparts. The Wolf, let's get real. While it is a bigger success than the Buzz ever was, KMPS will remain the market Country leader.

I'd love to see KIRO-FM, but I think that Bonneville will await the PPM to see where that heritage station B97 (or whatever they call it) ranks. Remember Bonneville doesn't have to be as impatient as the publicly traded companies. I doubt the public even thinks B97 is anything but KBSG with a new nickname. Remember that OLDIES get a nice kiss from the PPM. Don't throw the SHERRY BABY out with the Bath Water.

Mariners will return to KIRO. Bank on it.

Movin is dead EVERYWHERE.

XM and SIRIUS will be allowed to merge and STILL LOSE MONEY

Only the 5 Chief Engineers who read this board will own HD Radios.

Next......................
 
Couple of quick responses cowboys:

1. Rivers is the one who said he might retire, when this deal is up. I believe he said it in the paper, unless this cowboy is smokin somethin. While he and BJ may be close in age, Rivers has been doin mornings much longer and made a whole pile more bucks ;D He will do well if he stays, but i kinda doubt it. When I said BJ was eating into his younger end, I meant 35-45, where KISW is picking up ground. KZOK is rock solid 45-54 and still a strong player 35-45, but KISW is right there now. 8)

2. Agree with the points about KIRO simulcasting on KBSG FM. PPM is two years away and maybe longer in this market. I doubt Bonneville will wait on the chance their dead FM will get more numbers. :-\

3. Mariners to KIRO seems to be everyone's thought. Just thinkin here, why wouldn't KJR-AM bid for em?

4. MOVIN is dead, Satellite is dead, but don't count out WOLF just yet ::)

PEACE
 
After consulting my Ouija board (just bought a new one today), According to it, here's what the future holds:


- KIRO will not simulcast on 97.3. It has better things to do. Like kill...kill...KILL KOMO. According to this board (as well as my mole at 1820 Eastlake), Bonneville has been looking over the history of KIRO since it's sell off to Entercom in 1997 and they're not happy. They did this FM simulcast experiment once before in 1992 on 100.7 and it really didn't work. And they REALLY want KIRO-TV back. I predict bigger changes at 770. The once IMPOSSIBLE move of Rush Limbaugh to KIRO may become a reality. Or KVI can have him back. It's up to them. New format for 97.3? MAYBE, it read,

- KQMV could switch if the decline continues.

- AM stations may begin a full blown close/sell out across the country as a last ditch move to save the HD Radio FM idea, opening up the band further for experimenters and local hobbyists. This move will not sit well as an undisclosed disaster will affect the East coast and listeners will be left with absolutely no immediatally local radio news source on AM radio, the old reliable band.

- Speaking of AM stations, many will re-energize and develop new, exciting music formats that in some markets will intitially overshadow FM rivals. FMs will be forced to catch on, but as those FM stations become successful, these pioneer AMs will progress again to another new and different format. This may be an exciting year for AM radio.

- I asked for more satire and humor from this board, like my last one. It said "I am serious and look kid, unless you want to become the next Linda Blair, quit bugging me...."

OK.....so, should I take this thing back January 2nd?

It's up to you......
 
TakeItFromMe says...

""1. Rivers is the one who said he might retire, when this deal is up. I believe he said it in the paper, unless this cowboy is smokin somethin."""

What paper, when? Does anybody else verify this, or is is pure BS?


........."KZOK is rock solid 45-54 and still a strong player 35-45, but KISW is right there now"

KZOK is right where it was with Stern, who was a very close #2 25-54, but with numbers that were hard to sell. It is the rest of the dayparts that are much improved at KISW, not mornings. And yes, that makes it a much stronger station, no argument.


"""3. Mariners to KIRO seems to be everyone's thought. Just thinkin here, why wouldn't KJR-AM bid for em?"""

Because Clear Channel is in the midst of a sale that might not go through. Investing in product is not happening, and if you are in touch with the boards in other markets, you'd realize we're lucky CC Seattle has great local management, cuz it's ugly everywhere else.

****4. MOVIN is dead, Satellite is dead, but don't count out WOLF just yet

You forgot HD. Big waste of time.

PEACE BACK AT YOU... I am done nitpickin.
 
You will see more invested dollars in the rock format. Yes, with early PPM data the rock listeners are there, as we always knew, but had poor diary habits. Good luck to KISW, KNND & KFNK!

KUBE with dominate as always. Watch T-Man continue to own the 18-34 demo. Every other competitor, KBKS & KQMV, will have to realize that they will never beat them, hopefully just co-exist with them.

KBKS will truck on, with a little sign of life, a few points above KQMV and new management, CBS will keep on with the lone Seattle M-CHR. Watch the music continue to evolve, I will say they sound better now than they have in a loooong time.

MOViN will shift more and more to a R-CHR. Check mediabase, they are very unlike any other MOViN in the country. Id say by year end the music will be 50/50 between old and new. As far as the morning mess, well, I say go big or go home. Either its full blown morning zoo or just let DJ Auto take over.
 
the end will become MAGIC 108,AND THE BY THE END OF THE YEAR THEY WILL BE SAYING

PAUSING BREIFLY FOR STATION INDENIFACATION
I 107 7 SEATTLE
K M G I
NOW THE MAGIC IS IN THE MUSIC MIX
 
You'd have to buy those KMGI calls back from Pocatello.

It WOULD be hysterical to have them back on 107.7 (even as an April Fools prank), as if KNDD never happened. But remember one important lesson we learned from the demise of KJET, those years with NO TRUE modern rock format (September 1988 - August 1991) were PAINFUL.

But then again, such a prank may actually reenergize 107.7 MHz. Or make a GREAT stunt to a BETTER idea for a modern rock format. (I have ideas...not faceteous ones-REALLY. Message me...)
 
I remember the KJET April fools prank of 1987. They stated that due to low ratings, they were going off the air, and at midnight, did a sign off then shut down the transmitter, and left it off for the whole day. As a teen listening up in Vancouver, I was crushed. I had become enamored of the station and it had shaped my musical tastes to this day. I had nowhere else to go for that music. I kept tuning in every few minutes to see if it would come back, it didn't. Then the evening of April 2nd, out of desperation, I tuned in and there it was! They were running appologies every few minutes for all the hurt feelings they had caused. Aparently the station recieved phone calls non-stop. It worked if the intent was to illicit a listener response.
 
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