Next big AC hits

[carolinaradio]

Here's the current AC top 30:

LADY ANTEBELLUM Need You Now
TRAIN Hey, Soul Sister
KELLY CLARKSON Already Gone
MICHAEL BUBLE Haven't Met You Yet
COLBIE CAILLAT Fallin' For You
ROB THOMAS Someday
UNCLE KRACKER Smile
TAYLOR SWIFT You Belong With Me
DAUGHTRY No Surprise (recurrent soon)
KRIS ALLEN Live Like We're Dying
JOHN MAYER Heartbreak Warfare
ADAM LAMBERT Whataya Want From Me
TAYLOR SWIFT Fifteen
OWL CITY Fireflies (recurrent very soon)
SCRIPT Breakeven
DAUGHTRY Life After You
LADY GAGA Paparazzi (recurrent very soon)
MILEY CYRUS When I Look At You
NICKELBACK Never Gonna Be Alone
LIFEHOUSE Halfway Gone
FOREIGNER In Pieces
ALICIA KEYS Empire State Of Mind (Part II) Broken Down
LADY GAGA Bad Romance
TAYLOR SWIFT Today Was A Fairytale
LADY GAGA FEAT. BEYONCE Telephone
ORIANTHI According To You
ONEREPUBLIC All The Right Moves
AIR SUPPLY Dance With Me
WILL YOUNG Leave Right Now
EDWIN MCCAIN Walk With You

What songs do you predict will be the next big hits? AC is a very slow moving chart, so it might take a while. I crossed out the songs that have already been hits/peaked (in my opinion).

My predictions; next #1 will be "Hey, Soul Sister." "Whataya Want From Me", "Breakeven", and "Live Like We're Dying" all have potential and "Someday" might move up a bit. My personal favorite is WWFM out of all of those. The Buble, Caillat, Clarkson, and Swift songs were all good and have done well. Nothing else on the chart really is impressive, IMO. I don't see the GaGa songs below #20 will go as far as Paparazzi has.

Thoughts?

 

[vchimpanzee]

Air Supply? Seriously?

And Foreigner?

 

[Seltzer]

Agreed Carolina. I don't see Taylor Swift scoring big this time with Fifteen although lyrically it's something that any woman can relate to. All were 15 at one time.

 

[carolinaradio]

I don't think John Mayer is going to see AC success this time, either. Taylor has had enough success for now, IMO.

Really starting to see potential in "Breakeven." One of the best songs on the chart that has not become a hit. The Miley Cyrus song will probably be her last AC song, since she said she is going in an "edgier" direction (and "Can't Be Tamed" is evidence of that).

 

[Jay F]

Interesting that AC is still playing "Fifteen", Country dropped it a while ago and it never made it to recurrent on most country stations. I have read that country programmers feel their audience can not relate to it. Do any ACs play "Today was a Fairytale"? That has a soft texture that might work on AC. I believe it got more CHR airplay than anything.

I would like to see Breakeven become a big AC hit. I am normally not a fan of that genre of pop rock, a lot of it sounds the same to me. But this song is excellent and really stands out. It still seems more Hot AC than AC to me though.

 

[carolinaradio]

I haven't seen 'Fairytale' on any AC station. It could be that AC isn't as warm to her recent songs because she had several big songs pretty close in time (that were better, anyway; "Teardrops on My Guitar", and #1's for weeks with "Love Story" and "You Belong With Me"). Could the audience be tired of her, at least for now?

"Her Diamonds" and "Come On Get Higher" seemed Hot AC'ish to me, and made it to the top 5 on AC; the lines now are so blurred between Hot AC and CHR, and AC and Hot AC in many circumstances (but AC doesn't play Ke$ha and Jay Sean). You never know anymore.

 

[radiojjh]

Hey--I'm on the top-ranked A/C station here in a top-100 market--Spokane. And we play both "Fifteen" & "Today Is A Fairytale." Listeners seem to feel they can't get enough Taylor Swift....Personally--I think she is being over-exposed. They need to wait a little time between releasing so many songs at once. I don't see Lady GaGa becoming an A/C staple, although anything is possible. And surprisingly the new Air Supply song "Dance With Me," we're airing it in limited rotation and when I first heard it, I liked it and didn't realize who is was singing. An actually really great song.
Daughtry--even though a little edgy at times will be a mainstream A/C act......Adam Lambert?? Jury is still out on him. And to be honest I DO NOT LIKE Miley Cyrus' song "When I Look At You." It's so hard to get into...I've heard it so many times and it still doesn't register as well as "The Climb" did---that is a powerful song, but this one....I don't see hearing this on the radio 5 years from now---no staying power.

Just my 2 cents.... JJHemingway/Lite Rock KISS 98.1/Spokane

 

[satech]

Here's the current AC top 30:
{{{snip}}}

WILL YOUNG Leave Right Now

Is he finally breaking the USA? I remember loving that song when it first came out in the UK.

 

[carolinaradio]

I don't think 'Fairytale' will go far. I TOTALLY agree she is being over-exposed. She will suffer from an eventual burnout and run out of material (I feel the same about GaGa) if she does not slow down, IMO. "Fifteen" will probably fall off the chart next week.

Radiojjh, thumbs up on playing the Air Supply song. Most stations will not play new songs by established, older artists.

I like "Whataya Want From Me." It's much better than "Live Like We're Dying" (song seems very average). The ones that didn't like "Paparazzi" can rest easy, as it has been moved off the AC chart.

 

[Jay F]

"Live Like We're Dying" isn't very original. It reminds me of the broadway show tune "Seasons Of Love" except it's a lot more bland and uninspiring. Also the title is near identical to the Tim McGraw song from a few years back. That being said it's OK, I wouldn't turn the station if it came on.

 

[carolinaradio]

Current AC chart is not good. Top 10 is:

1. TRAIN - HEY, SOUL SISTER
2. LADY ANTEBELLUM - NEED YOU NOW
3. UNCLE KRACKER - SMILE
4. ROB THOMAS - SOMEDAY
5. MICHAEL BUBLE - HAVEN'T MET YOU YET
6. KELLY CLARKSON - ALREADY GONE
7. COLBIE CAILLAT - FALLIN' FOR YOU
8. KRIS ALLEN - LIVE LIKE WE'RE DYING
9. DAUGHTRY - LIFE AFTER YOU
10. ADAM LAMBERT - WHATAYA WANT FROM ME

http://secure.randr.com/bdsradiocharts/charts.aspx?formatid=3&lightbox=true

Why does this chart have to be so slow? All but maybe 8, 9, and 10 have been exhausted since February or March on most AC stations. Fallin' For You and Haven't Met You Yet were being played before Christmas. Nothing is as awful, though, as that huge run "The Climb" had last year.

I don't like the Daughtry song - everything except "Home" by them is so generic and all sounds the same to me. LAY is the worst. And as said, LLWD is nothing special...of all of those, "Someday" is my personal favorite at the moment, because it doesn't seem as burned out. Maybe it's the sound - I like this one more than "Her Diamonds."

Funny how the spins drop after #11 (from 910 for 11 to 515 for 12) and #14 (455 for 14, 255 for 15). I still see potential in "Breakeven" (top 5?) and like Colbie Caillat's "I Never Told You." Nothing else struck my attention, but some of the songs on the chart are laughable - Bad Romance, Break Your Heart, California Gurls....too bad this chart doesn't move faster and the stations are so scared to play a lot of new songs.

 

[Jay F]

I remember before Christmas there was discussion on here about not hearing "Fallin For You" because of holiday music. Well we have more than made up for it now that it's still in the top 10 in July.

I agree about Daughtry. Normally I can identify songs within a few seconds, even songs I haven't heard in decades. Yet I lose this ability with Daughtry because the songs sound so similar to each other.

I also agree those CHR songs are laughable to be on AC. There must be some good AC product out there.

 

[new_friends_gr]

I would like to see Breakeven become a big AC hit. I am normally not a fan of that genre of pop rock, a lot of it sounds the same to me. But this song is excellent and really stands out. It still seems more Hot AC than AC to me though.

What happened to The Script's first hit, "The Man Who Can't Be Moved"? It was played on the radio quite a bit in the spring of '09, but now we NEVER hear it anymore. It's unfortunate because that's a really good song. Now we only hear "Breakeven", which has gotten on my nerves due to it being overplayed.

 

[carolinaradio]

The problem with so few AC songs is that they are overplayed. Do we really need the songs I mentioned above played 3 or more times a day each for however many months? Then when they go to recurrent, they're played to death still. I am still hearing You Belong With Me, The Climb, The Time of My Life, Come On Get Higher, I'm Yours, Bubbly, Bad Day, Unwritten, Bleeding Love, Big Girls Don't Cry, etc twice a day sometimes....these songs just get old. That is why I favor AC stations that emphasize older music, because with the AC songs now there just aren't enough to be "modern."

The only Daughtry song I liked was Home when it first came out. The rest have gotten progressively worse.

 

[Seltzer]

Current AC chart is not good. Top 10 is:

1. TRAIN - HEY, SOUL SISTER
2. LADY ANTEBELLUM - NEED YOU NOW
3. UNCLE KRACKER - SMILE
4. ROB THOMAS - SOMEDAY
5. MICHAEL BUBLE - HAVEN'T MET YOU YET
6. KELLY CLARKSON - ALREADY GONE
7. COLBIE CAILLAT - FALLIN' FOR YOU
8. KRIS ALLEN - LIVE LIKE WE'RE DYING
9. DAUGHTRY - LIFE AFTER YOU
10. ADAM LAMBERT - WHATAYA WANT FROM ME

http://secure.randr.com/bdsradiocharts/charts.aspx?formatid=3&lightbox=true

Why does this chart have to be so slow?

Primarily because how the A/C audience uses currents. Primarily played to keep the audience "in touch" with what is generally going on today.......also the format tends to wait for songs to be developed by other formats before they get added at A/C. All of this top 10 is being played at either CHR, Hot A/C, and/or country. Michael Buble is the only song that got its start at A/C and ended up in Hot A/C and CHR.

A/C listeners generally want to hear their favorite songs-----older songs------more often than any current stuff,

 

[vinyltapecd]

I also agree those CHR songs are laughable to be on AC. There must be some good AC product out there.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. So true. If there ever comes a time when even one-fourth of the "heavy rotation" AC songs are good, then I will shut up about wishing the 60s and 70s were still prevalent on AC/Soft Rock stations.

 

[carolinaradio]

Primarily because how the A/C audience uses currents. Primarily played to keep the audience "in touch" with what is generally going on today.......also the format tends to wait for songs to be developed by other formats before they get added at A/C. All of this top 10 is being played at either CHR, Hot A/C, and/or country. Michael Buble is the only song that got its start at A/C and ended up in Hot A/C and CHR.

A/C listeners generally want to hear their favorite songs-----older songs------more often than any current stuff,

If I programmed an AC, I'd be very careful with currents. Play the top 10, and since they stay on the chart for so long, they don't need to be played to death - twice a day for the higher up ones, the top ones, maybe three times. One an hour.
yes.com WLYT/Charlotte and WXLY/Charleston for the way I'd do AC. 70s and 80s are the basis of the station (3-4 an hour of each era), very little 90s (one an hour), and fill the rest with 2000s, currents, recurrents. AC that is not brave with currents but doesn't embrace the 70s and barely embraces the 80s sounds very stale and I've never seen it done well. Good analysis.

 

[carolinaradio]

I love the new John Mayer/Taylor Swift song "Half Of My Heart." I bet it will be a pretty good hit (a lot better than "Heartbreak Warfare"). And I like seeing "Breakeven" moving up. Looks like Kris Allen is headed to recurrent soon.

I really cringe hearing "Life After You." So generic. The only decent Daughtry song was "Home" - and it's really the one from that album I still hear a lot.

 

[Seltzer]

My only issue with "Half Of My Heart" is that we don;t get more Taylor on it. She sings, at best, two lines. For something being touted as a duet, it really isn't. I agree its much better than Heartbreak Warfare. Breakeven looks like it's going to be a big hit after all. Good song.

 

[Jay F]

My only issue with "Half Of My Heart" is that we don;t get more Taylor on it. She sings, at best, two lines. For something being touted as a duet, it really isn't. I agree its much better than Heartbreak Warfare. Breakeven looks like it's going to be a big hit after all. Good song.

I'm not a John Mayer fan at all but I have to admit that "Half Of My Heart" is a very good song. That little part with Taylor Swift is the best part. I also wish she was on more of the song.