Nielsen Buffalo Ratings -- Fall 2018

[Element9]

"In August it has a 4.2 We will get a 5 share soon."

Because "August" was cited, a reasonable person could interpret the word "soon" to mean, "September." It also could be interpreted to mean "next book," meaning Fall 2018.

"We will have a 4 share by the next Fall book. Quote that."

A lot can happen in a year. But just as you were when you wrote "5 share soon," you're now on record.

Another thing regarding ratings. They are VERY undependable. Good or bad. It is a really messed up old system.

If they're so messed up and undependable, why do you make predictions? Leave that up to the imposters like me and the others who post here. I say if WECK pulls a 3.2 Persons 12+ in the Winter book, you made your mark. In the Winter book, some WECK listeners may sample The Breeze during the honeymoon period. Joe Chille alone will get some curiosity listening from your listeners, who may turn into Breeze listeners. WBEN will draw listeners if the weather gets nasty. WGR may siphon a few ears for the Sabres... and WHTT may snatch a few bodies just because. "Not your competition," you say? Right. Until these stations nibble at the edges of the pie, leaving less to eat. It's conceivable that a 3.2 Persons 12+ for WECK would also be "testing the ceiling." If that happens, Mazel Tov!

The Fall book seems to show about 63% of AQH listening is by folks over 65, with 1/3 in 25-54. Most of us who use ratings look at AQH share, rating and persons, not cume. Cumers don't buy anything from our clients.* People who are listening when a client's ad runs do. AQH Fall 18-34 200 persons. AQH Fall 35-64 900 persons. AQH Fall 12+ 2800 persons. Thus, 65+ is 1,700 persons

That's right, Brochazo. WECK is essentially a 65+ brand... 65+ falls into the Persons 12+ barrel. If some of those 900 AQH Persons 35-64 who listened to WECK turn to The Breeze, WECK's 12+ may be negatively impacted, creating havoc with the predicted 4 share. Gotta shore up the 65+ power zone...

WECK cume is up...

The challenge then is turning the cume into TSL, leading to improved AQH Persons. Accomplish this and WECK may attain the predicted share. Still... I'm guessing something between 3 and 3.5 is more realistic.

 

[davideduardo]

Because "August" was cited, a reasonable person could interpret the word "soon" to mean, "September." It also could be interpreted to mean "next book," meaning Fall 2018.

In the context of ratings in a diary market, I'd say "soon" would always mean "in a couple of books". Not "next book". Remember, when we have a book to look at, we are already about a third of the way through the next book.

In the Winter book, some WECK listeners may sample The Breeze during the honeymoon period. Joe Chille alone will get some curiosity listening from your listeners, who may turn into Breeze listeners.

Except that The Breeze is targeting 25-54, and nearly all the WECK listening is by 55+.

That's right, Brochazo. WECK is essentially a 65+ brand... 65+ falls into the Persons 12+ barrel. If some of those 900 AQH Persons 35-64 who listened to WECK turn to The Breeze, WECK's 12+ may be negatively impacted, creating havoc with the predicted 4 share. Gotta shore up the 65+ power zone...

They are almost all 55-64, and pretty much out of the breezy zone.

The challenge then is turning the cume into TSL, leading to improved AQH Persons. Accomplish this and WECK may attain the predicted share. Still... I'm guessing something between 3 and 3.5 is more realistic.

WECK actually has a pretty good conversion ratio with the ratio being equal to or somewhat better than stations like WHTT and WGRF.

 

[yugoidar]

Mr. Eduardo and Mr. Element 9, you math geniuses are going to have Buddy's head spinning! Between the two of you, he won't know which way to turn as he makes his "big news" 2019 programming changes. Good luck, Buddy!

 

[Element9]

You and I have a different notion as to the word "soon," Mr. Eduardo, but WADR, I'll stand by my contention with regard to the word as regards the "5 share" prediction. Those 900 bodies in WECK's back pocket in the 55-64 may have been a bonus to WECK, but that bonus counts in the 12+ and it helped the 55+ tally. As to the performance of WECK and The Breeze, we may get a glimpse of how things sort out some April when the Winter book drops. Soon enough to begin the next stage of this debate? I can wait. Winter's a unique book in this diary market. Snow. Lake effect squalls. Sports. Politics. What might it be compared it to in sunny Palm Springs and LA... the LA rain spell may draw an intriguing parallel.

BTW, as you brought WGRF into the discussion, it's said the station had a cringe-worthy Fall book, sliding from around a 10 share to around a 5 share, Persons 25-54, Mon-Sun ("near" a 7 share Fall 2017, which mitigates to a degree the slide from a "near 10" to a "near 5" share.) Already, some people on the street are binging up the "diary placement" rationale with regard to WBLK's standout book, the slide of WYRK and the eye-opening decline of WGRF.

 

[SirRoxalot]

If you listen to "The Breeze", it's likely to impact 55+ listening. WECK - as a P2 or P3 for many of those listeners - will feel their presence. I suspect it will become the de facto "boring background music" station for a lot of public spaces, like offices and small stores. I'm not sure that's great news for advertisers, but they will impact the ratings. What I'm hearing is not 25-54 centric - at least not in this market. Joe Chille will get noticed by the upper demos.

Buddy may be able to convert those with fossilized musical taste, but I'm not sure that applies to all the people that sample his station. From what I hear on the street WECK is where people go when other stations go into interminable commercial sets. People go back to their favorites when WECK plays something that turns them off - general within a couple of songs. That's why you see the disparity between cume and share.

Is Nielsen not changing their methodology? Has that happened in the Buffalo market yet? Have they changed their weighting or sampling? We certainly have seen some up-and-down books from 97-Rock, and the emergence of WBLK as the market leader. There seems to be more volatility than would normally result from whatever programming tweaks are taking place.

 

[Buddy Shula]

Here how it lays out gang......Breeze is targeting women 35-54 WECK is nowhere near that demo - Take a look at the top five stations for women 35-54, and THEY may get hurt. TS wants to take from the 6 share stations, not the approx. 3 share stations like WECK.

Also, let me clarify my prediction. I think WECK will hit a 4 share between now and the summer 2019 book. I could care less if you quote me on it. I am not trying to prove anything to the 10 people on this board. That is where I feel WECK will end up. Every indication says this is possible, especially if Breeze takes shares from others with more shares.

Breeze is not going to hurt WECK - they are an at work background station. It even says that in their slogan. Relaxing Favorites at work. WECK is an up-tempo oldies station. They are separate. The benefit WECK gets is to see the uber-researched 70's music Breeze plays, and play some our self, and not have to pay a research firm.

I am not just throwing darts at a dartboard. I study the trends, although I have to admit, the diary system is very unreliable, but even with it's unreliability, I think we will hit a 4 by the time Fall comes around. If we don't, so what. I have a great cume and great advertisers, and a station that has made a comeback.

 

[Rob Piotrowski]

I think we will hit a 4 by the time Fall comes around. If we don't, so what. I have a great cume and great advertisers, and a station that has made a comeback.

Precisely. WECK wins not because of the numbers, but in spite of them. All that matters is that the station generates enough revenue to pay the staff, pay the bills and put some cash in Buddy's pocket. Anything over that is gravy.

 

[Rusty Bridges]

Bring back Mike Melody.

 

[four4rock]

My apologies in advance that this post is not about da Breeze or da WECK.

And I hope I can characterize my comments about this clearly...

Rather, if I understand correctly the top stations are alleged to be WBEN, WBLK, and WYRK. When they are referred to as "top", isn't that a bit elementary? Is every single show (time period?) tops? Does Clay Moden's wake-up show beat everyone else's? What about Sunday afternoon? Does Tom Bauerle's morning stint beat everyone else's on the air at that time? How does that break down... and isn't THAT in what advertisers find interest?

Seems like - for example - Moden would get high ratings... but, for example, the mid-day time period of WYRK would not be as "successful"... so, don't clients buy time based on the specific show/time?

Again, my apologies for not giving Breeze/WECK any material post time here.

 

[SirRoxalot]

Daypart and demographic ratings are protected material. They are not released to the public. Buyers do indeed look at specific demographics (male, female, total listeners 18-34, 25-54, and 35-64 are common groupings). You won't (legally) find those numbers unless you buy a rating service or the services of an agency that does buy the book.

BTW, I suspect that you already know that. Your posts here show a significantly greater level of sophistication regarding radio as a media than you claim to have when you drop by to stir the pot.

 

[four4rock]

Daypart and demographic ratings are protected material. They are not released to the public. Buyers do indeed look at specific demographics (male, female, total listeners 18-34, 25-54, and 35-64 are common groupings). You won't (legally) find those numbers unless you buy a rating service or the services of an agency that does buy the book.

BTW, I suspect that you already know that. Your posts here show a significantly greater level of sophistication regarding radio as a media than you claim to have when you drop by to stir the pot.

Thanks. No, I didn't know that... I kinda figured it would be important information, but didn't really know. In today's "everything is out there" environment, unless it's HIPAA or defense related, I don't understand the logic of keeping the 'daypart' & 'demographic' stuff confidential. And, no "pot stirring" intended. And thanks for your kind words... I truly try to be as knowledgeable about as much as I can... radio included.

 

[davideduardo]

Thanks. No, I didn't know that... I kinda figured it would be important information, but didn't really know. In today's "everything is out there" environment, unless it's HIPAA or defense related, I don't understand the logic of keeping the 'daypart' & 'demographic' stuff confidential. And, no "pot stirring" intended. And thanks for your kind words... I truly try to be as knowledgeable about as much as I can... radio included.

The reason for confidentiality is that the data is only of value if it can not be obtained free. To be able to use the data to sell to agencies and transactional buyers, a station has to pay for the data. If a station could get it freely, why would they spend tens of thousands of dollars a year for ratings?

Just as P&G and McDonalds pay for proprietary consumer research, stations pay for ratings only when they know a competitor can not legally use them without also paying. Why would one station subsidize others?