Nielsen cancels November sweeps

[Will_Slembarski]

Radio counts on big revenue from the TV stations in sweeps months (Feb, May & Nov). With Nielsen cancelling the November ratings, I'm sure the TV dollars will fall away from radio as well. This following an October where budgets where already inflated do to last years huge political dollars. Add to that a December that's pacing extremely slow.

Looks like fourth quarter will be a disaster revenue wise for radio. Look for taditional 18-34 year old stations to really feel it.

 

[RatchetUp]

> Radio counts on big revenue from the TV stations in sweeps
> months (Feb, May & Nov). With Nielsen cancelling the
> November ratings, I'm sure the TV dollars will fall away
> from radio as well. This following an October where budgets
> where already inflated do to last years huge political
> dollars. Add to that a December that's pacing extremely
> slow.
>
> Looks like fourth quarter will be a disaster revenue wise
> for radio. Look for taditional 18-34 year old stations to
> really feel it.
>
To my knowledge local TV doesn't spend anywhere near the money it did years ago for sweeps. I think radio stopped depending on big windfalls from TV sweeps a while back. Non-story.

 

[davideduardo]

> Radio counts on big revenue from the TV stations in sweeps
> months (Feb, May & Nov). With Nielsen cancelling the
> November ratings, I'm sure the TV dollars will fall away
> from radio as well. This following an October where budgets
> where already inflated do to last years huge political
> dollars. Add to that a December that's pacing extremely
> slow.
>
> Looks like fourth quarter will be a disaster revenue wise
> for radio. Look for taditional 18-34 year old stations to
> really feel it.

Miami will have a temporary lull in radio revenues, not due to anything that Nielsen does, but because many campaigns were suspended during the storm. However, there is always an infusion of advertising int he aftermath of a caribbean hurricane... so the 4th Quarter will probably be very big. The loss of TV revenues will be made up by the increase in insurance company, building supply and other categories.

Radio, nationally, will be up about 4% this year. Since Miami is predomiantly Hispanic, the revenue will be up even more there since only the Spanish stations get over 1 to 1 power ratios.

Most likely, the market will be up, narely as much as last year which was an election year.

 

[Will_Slembarski]

Radio did see a pop from insurance dollars yes, but only two weeks max. And not nearly enough to cover the loss of the huge tv dollars+losses from other cancelled campaigns. There is no money from building supply or "other categories" as you suggest.

Now that things are finally getting back together, there's a mad dash to replace the suddenly available inventory remaining in November.

The competition will be so fierce among stations that they will do what comes naturally, drop rates in a desperate attempt to hit budgets. Too little, too late. Mark my words, you will not see any growth from general market radio revenue this quarter.

I agree with your comments on Hispanic radio however. They are likely to remain unfazed by most of this.

> The loss of TV revenues will be made up by the increase in
> insurance company, building supply and other categories.
>
> Radio, nationally, will be up about 4% this year. Since
> Miami is predomiantly Hispanic, the revenue will be up even
> more there since only the Spanish stations get over 1 to 1
> power ratios.
>
> Most likely, the market will be up, narely as much as last
> year which was an election year.
>

 

[davideduardo]

> Radio did see a pop from insurance dollars yes, but only two
> weeks max.

A "pop?" More like a bonanza. As people get their insurance dollars, they will have severa billion dollars to spend. Everything from Home Depot to wal Mart is out to get thier share. This will affect retail advertising for 4 to 6 months, not 2 weeks.

> And not nearly enough to cover the loss of the
> huge tv dollars+losses from other cancelled campaigns. There
> is no money from building supply or "other categories" as
> you suggest.

40% of South Florida radio money is car dealers. I tis not TV campaigns. It has not been TV campaigns for a long, long time. this will hardly be noticed, but the retail dollars will be.
>
> Now that things are finally getting back together, there's a
> mad dash to replace the suddenly available inventory
> remaining in November.

Insurance companies had bought all the avails that big employers had not already bought 24 hours after the storm passed through. Emplyers spent millions advising of work schedules and even government spent on notices about essential services.
>
> The competition will be so fierce among stations that they
> will do what comes naturally, drop rates in a desperate
> attempt to hit budgets.

Most Miami area stations are sold out, and are raising the grid level.