Prediction: One of the three Seattle country stations will be gone in two years. (Don’t bet money on my predictions, BTW! I've been wrong before.)
It's a format-in-a-box. It's not a traditional syndicated approach, but it operates similarly.
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No Joke. Star 101.5 Flipping Today Too
- Thread starter lanceventa
- Start date
Prediction: One of the three Seattle country stations will be gone in two years. (Don’t bet money on my predictions, BTW! I've been wrong before.)
It's a format-in-a-box. It's not a traditional syndicated approach, but it operates similarly.
I think they're counting on Fitz to provide that.
KMPS and KKWF co-existed for well over a decade.
I do think 3 country stations with full market signals will be unable to coexist; one station will bow out in the next two or three years. Seattle isn't Nashville, after all.
My gut tells me Hank FM has the longest odds for long-term success. Not sure the same imaging package as that used by the small market Hank FM and Duke FM stations located in the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Dixie will be appealing to listeners in a cosmopolitan Metro area such as Seattle.
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Lots of angry comments at RadioInk:
radioink.com
Two Seattle Stations Go Country As KPNW and Star 101.5 Flip - Radio Ink
It's no April Fool's joke. Two Seattle radio stations flipped to Country music on April 1, both 98.9 KPNW and Star 101.5.
radioink.com
The post from a Jason makes me feel they are lurking here....Lots of angry comments at RadioInk:
Two Seattle Stations Go Country As KPNW and Star 101.5 Flip - Radio Ink
It's no April Fool's joke. Two Seattle radio stations flipped to Country music on April 1, both 98.9 KPNW and Star 101.5.
Incredible. Whatever happened to word of mouth? If you love a radio station, talk about it with your friends. That's what is supposed to happen. Instead, they wait until it's gone, and then ask their friends, who say they never knew it existed. Yet the country fans somehow found The Bull within weeks of its launch. The same owner with the same PPM encoder and the same budget & staff will be involved in the country return, and I bet it will get more than double the audience KPNW got in a couple of months.
Interesting that, either KEXP doesn't resonate with those commenters, or they're not aware of it. Possibly some couldn't receive it and turned to KPNW as an alternate choice.Lots of angry comments at RadioInk:
Two Seattle Stations Go Country As KPNW and Star 101.5 Flip - Radio Ink
It's no April Fool's joke. Two Seattle radio stations flipped to Country music on April 1, both 98.9 KPNW and Star 101.5.
One commenter's standard for comparison was Chicago's WXRT. I feel their pain; I always felt that San Francisco's KFOG never measured up to WXRT. It's a high standard, but one that resulted from unique circumstances 40-50 years ago, and times are different now, making it difficult if not impossible to replicate.
Word of mouth may not be as important as it used to be as people spend less time with radio. If I'm asking someone what they’re listening to these days, I rarely hear it’s anything on the radio. It's almost always a track on a personal playlist. I can count the number of times I've heard, “Hey, did you hear that new radio station,” unprompted from anyone other than a radio person on one hand.
I suspect so, too. KPNW was well-programmed and sounded good. I also liked its dedication to local. “They didn’t pay us to tell you about them. We just want to support local because we live here, too.” For whatever reasons, it just didn’t catch on. The numbers were just terrible. I don’t think anyone expected it to be #1, but I would've thought it could've gotten 103.7 The Mountain numbers. I know those numbers weren’t good enough for Entercom, but they seemed like they could at least be sustainable. In the end, I can't say I was surprised to see it go as it probably had more online listeners than it did listening to the air signal in Seattle at any given time.
I'm curious to know if Lotus and Hubbard saw each others moves coming. Format changes seem to be planned out well in advance. I cant' see station manager waking up one day and say I think we will change from Top 40 to Country. Either both are willing to take a risk or the train was to far down the tracks to turn back around. Are there spies in the radio industry feeding information?
Or perhaps the AAA audience thinks it's uncool to talk about radio. Not so with the country audience. They will talk up the return of the Bull and Fitz.
From what I can see, it came from advertisers.
Not sure if anyone at Hubbard checked it, but Star 101.5's Facebook page address was changed to "hankfmseattle" at least several hours before the switch.
I can't imagine Hubbard just hired Fitz and got the old Bull format ready to go on a whim. Fitz is too talented and too well-known to be someone you could typically call, throw a number, and have him reporting to work immediately. Getting someone like that usually requires negotiations, which take time. It may have rushed the start by a few days/weeks, but the change at 98.9 was likely in the works for at least a few weeks. Something to keep in mind is that the sales staff is often the first to know if a format change is taking place. Sales may not be given all of the details, but the staff is often told it'll be selling something different or otherwise be given a different pitch. While radio people tend to be prone to talking, don't underestimate the possibility of an advertiser dropping a few hints. "I called to buy on Star, and they weren't telling me what I expected and don't sound like they'll meet my needs. What would a package on Warm 106.9 cost?"
That didn't happen until after Bull relaunched.
There's been buzz growing about a 101.5 flip for a few months now.
From what we've learned since the flips, the 98.9 change came together fairly quickly. As mentioned previously in the thread Fitz has a close relationship with Hubbard Seattle management as Scott Mahalick was his PD at both Wolf and Bull and his deal didn't take much to get done (It may even be a handshake at this point).
The prevailing belief is that Hubbard got wind of an imminent change at 101.5 and was working to beat them to the punch. But did not know what kind of Country that KPLZ was going to do.
Problem with Country in Seattle is there is limited cume for the format. 400-500K total. That is enough for one station to be successful but has proven challenging for two. Splitting it three ways is probably not viable. Surprised Lotus didn't simulcast KNWN on a full market FM and use 97.7 for KVI. KNWN is now at the bottom 25-54 and not able to compete with full market FM signals on KIRO-FM and KUOW-FM.
Keep in mind that not all country is the same. The format on 101.5 is all classic country. No currents. Not unlike having a classic rock and rock station in the same market. Even if the new Bull gets the same numbers it got two years ago, it will be a vast improvement over what they got with AAA. The only station that will lose is the Wolf.
My expectation is that while classic country often appeals to an older demo, it will still be mostly 25-54, and also a bit younger than they were getting with AC.
Country radio has a massive following - as does Christian Contemporary (in markets other than Seattle, at least. Look at Spokane for the success of Shine 104.9). Different people have different tastes.
I suspect one of these two new country stations will bow out before the end of 2025. Seattle is an urban and suburban market that does not lean country at all. Even if country has become 'urban-ized', tastes of the Average Joe aren't into country music.
Those in the Tacoma area did not have any choice outside of KPNW for an adult alternative station...as K-LOVE's Graham translator blots out KEXP down there, and KEXP was pretty weak to begin with. But with KPNW's abysmal ratings, was anybody listening? Lights on, no one home?
Speaking of cume….last month, KKWF had a cume of 443,000. I suspect pretty high TSL to go along with that. Still…if that’s all the country audience is in Seattle, no one is going to win this battle. KPLZ had a cume of 336,000. Down significantly the past few years as Lotus continued to fall all over themselves trying to figure out what to do. KPNW’s cume was 115,000. As discussed ad nauseam on this board, it never gained any sort of traction. Will be an interesting one to watch. Not just the country battle, but where the combined 451,000 available cume (KPLZ + KPNW) scatters off to.
That's not at all what the research is showing. Younger audiences don't isolate music by genre. That's why Luke Combs and Morgan Wallen had big pop hits last year, and why Beyonce is getting airplay on country radio. That would not have happened ten years ago.
There are a lot of people who don't like this big tent approach to country, and prefer country that sounds more country, as it did in the 90s. For them, there's now 101.5. I expect to see Hank share listeners with classic rock stations more than the two current country stations.
It's been decades since I've had casual conversations about radio outside of venues such as this one - or except with folks who also hang out in venues such as this. There seem to be concentric circles of: people in the industry, hard-core fans of certain stations, radio aficionados generally, casual/passive listeners, and accidental listeners. Those circles have been shrinking, with such retrenchment having been accelerated by the development of convenient and cheap alternatives.
It doesn't have to be word of mouth about a radio station. If people weren't talking about the music or the return of certain personalities, then no amount of paid advertising on TV or billboards are going to make a difference either. People really aren't talking about Spotify or Pandora either except as a thing. They're just appliances, ways to hear the songs I want to hear. Nothing more.
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