NOV 06 Trend

[redbullfan]

Some Observations:

1. KUBE not hurt by Movin...looks good.
2. KMPS still beats Wolf...Wolf down.
3. Movin up again...ties Wolf basically...too #8
4. Kiss 106 bottomed out...beats KPLZ..but gets soundly beaten by Movin and KUBE.
5. KPLZ has bottomed out at the bottom of the well. Soundly beat by Movin.

Wolf looks to have an audience that will put it in the mid 3 share to upper 3 share range for the forseeable future.
Movin will be in the same mid 3 range or so long term. That is before a Morning show is added etc.
KPLZ is finished in it's current incarnation...look for a shakeup next year

 

[AQH]

Some Observations:

1. KUBE not hurt by Movin...looks good.
2. KMPS still beats Wolf...Wolf down.
3. Movin up again...ties Wolf basically...too #8
4. Kiss 106 bottomed out...beats KPLZ..but gets soundly beaten by Movin and KUBE.
5. KPLZ has bottomed out at the bottom of the well. Soundly beat by Movin.

Wolf looks to have an audience that will put it in the mid 3 share to upper 3 share range for the forseeable future.
Movin will be in the same mid 3 range or so long term. That is before a Morning show is added etc.
KPLZ is finished in it's current incarnation...look for a shakeup next year

Hey look! It's another "KPLZ is dead" post. Gee, what a surprise.

What the poster failed to mention is the weaker trend, more so than KPLZ, of KNDD.

Looks like someone over in Factoria again.

 

[djdan]

Always a treat each month to see these posts. The true story of November in the key demo's:

Winners: stations with nice growth in the November trend and at least over a three share 25-54 for the month.

Big Winners:
KZOK
KISW
WARM (huge November)
JACK
MOVIN
WOLF
KIRO
KWJZ
KPLZ
KJR-AM
KJR-FM

Losers:
KMTT
KBSG (after that huge final trend for the old crew)
KMPS
KOMO
KNDD
KVI
KCMS (down but not a bunch)

Rest are kinda flat. Will KPLZ flip? I doubt it, they have been growing for two months and will be okay in the book in core demos. Will KBKS flip, I doubt it, they have been growing for two months too. Will KNDD flip? Maybe. They have been declining and Fall has not been kind. Will JACK flip? No chance. Nice rebound this Fall will keep them in the game despite a huge four-book drop year to year. MOVIN will have a strong second book, JACK is making a nice comeback this Fall (after declining for nine straight months) and WOLF may beat KMPS this Fall in the key demos.

Top station 25-54 will be KZOK
Top station 18-34 for the last decade and today KUBE
Winner for the year: WOLF
Loser for the year: KNDD
Too soon to tell: MOVIN (Fall is just their second book)

That is the real story.

 

[mammaknowsbest]

Hah! You wouldn't know the real story if it hit you in the face. Four-book means nothing anymore. Your winners this November: MOVIN, WOLF, JACK, WARM, KZOK, KISW. Losers: KNDD, KMTT (after a big fluke in October), KBSG and KBKS still dead.
KPLZ got a tiny little kiss in November, but are on life support at best. WARM will smash em with Christmas music in December.

Winners for the Trends, Fall or Year:
MOVIN and WOLF

Solid: KZOK, KISW, KCMS, KJR-FM

Losers:
KNDD, KBKS, and every AM in town except KTTH

On the bubble:
KPLZ, KMPS Both are beaten this Fall after fluke growth in Spring and Summer.
Winter will put the final nail in their coffins. This time they won't come back.

Most Likely to FLip in 07: KNDD (no question), KBKS, KPLZ and KBSG.

Seems Mamma really did know best when I made these predictions last Spring. Merry Christmas and a new radio world to all.