Numbers

[The Sigon]

I know a lot of you get all skittery and run off hither and yon flapping your arms in a spastic, frightened little school girl way whenever anyone mentions Arbitron here, but has anyone seen the numbers?

I understand some "up is down and black is white" dominates this particular "only game in town diary placement crapshoot" with perennial leaders in the toilet and dark horse stations rising to unexpected levels.

Does that say something about programming and counter-programming or more about it's time for Arbitron to go to all people meters or just hang it up?

 

[lifetimedj]

well, as always, the latest ratings are right here on this board, under "ratings". No need to hear it through the grapevine.

 

[berniek]

I would say the people at Entercom are happy with the book....four stations in the top ten...all showing growth from the fall and a nice book and rebound for The Mountain.

 

[luvcoors]

If I'm in Rock 107 land...I feel like someone working for Wachovia. The party's over! D & W get buried 12+ and P 25-54. Talking about irrelevant stuff like Coolio, stupid high tech tools that their avg. listener can't afford, thus not being interested and other crap that Men 25-54 don't care about causes the button to be pushed! How does it feel to lose to Sue Henry boys...one bad jock beating even worse ones! D & W only beat JR & BHT in mornings. What's even funnier besides D & W losing 40% of their numbers...the rest of the dayparts lost more! And before anyone screams "diary return"...the returns for the demo and from all 5 counties was consistent with the previous 5 books worth. Translation...means the listeners can't stand the current lame product. Try to spin that huge drop on the street, this one just happens to be much worse and much more real than the last tornado than ran thru that building 3 books ago!

They almost finished below JR...who in turn had a great book. No big surprise with Magic, KRZ, & Froggy...all up. X is back to where they belong, massive numbers P 18-34, P 25-54 as well. WILK...ehhhh...proves the super high book was a fluke. BHT one year ago was beating KRZ across the board with P 18-34 & W 18-34 and made it a very close 12+ battle...now back to where it was 2 years ago. Wonder why?

Thoughts?

 

[NigelWick]

Why is WILK's good book a fluke and 107's bad book is not? I'm not a 107 fan because of all the pointless talk in the morning and the tired presentation the rest of the day. On the other hand, I respect what the station's accomplished. I don't believe the drop.

 

[The Sigon]

Good point. I think WILK's increased numbers are an obvious result of their "new" FM signal. Their morning show is insufferable (can we change the months old promo?), but I don't think Sue Henry's show is so bad. Don't love Corbett at all but he is a listener magnet. Knows what buttons to push. So part-fluke, part-signal if you ask me.

107? You may think it's pointless talk in the morning and tired the rest of the day but whatever it is, save for occasional imaging updates it's largely unchanged in years and I'm sorry, I don't think half the listeners suddenly decide to jump ship. Their poor book this time around is the fluke. See diary placement and signal footprint of the top five or six to see why.

Froggy, riding the crests and troughs that a country format always experiences. If they're up, check back in a book or two.

 

[berniek]

What will WILK do with Mike Savage after his comments earlier this week?

 

[Nokmo True]

I heard the comments about misdiagnosed autism, etc., and what he said is being taken out of context and not fully restated, as one would expect from the ultra left who has no love loss for Michael Savage. It's a blip and will not affect his affiliation with WILK or likely any station. It's part of why people listen.

 

[berniek]

How is "In 99 percent of the cases, it's a brat who hasn't been told to cut the act out' taking anything out of context?

Or "What do you mean they scream and they're silent? They don't have a father around to tell them, Don't act like a moron. You'll get nowhere in life. Stop acting like a putz. Straighten up. Act like a man. Don't sit there crying and screaming, you idiot."

This from the same man who lost his show on MSNBC after telling a caller:

"get Aids and die, you pig."

I watched or heard Savage on Larry King Live Monday night, hosted by the ultra-left guest hose Glen Beck...all Savage did was dig a the hole deeper...time to throw the dirt in on top of him.

 

[Aramondo]

Wrong. I heard the original broadcast.

Those are the words but they were in the context of those who are misdiagnosed. It was a rant about the fact that there are no bio-medical markers to determine autism and a rant about the misdiagnosis, over-diagnosis and over-medication of children. The "99 percent" you quote was 99 percent of the misdiagnosed cases. The haters wish he actually said what they claim he said, but he didn't.

And Glenn Beck, "ultra-left"? Wrong again. I mean, not even close.

And herein lies the beauty of the internet. No need to have a clue in order to spout mindless drivel. At least it wasn't all CAPS!

 

[kfitz]

Back to this market.....The wacky mountains and valleys and odd locations of the communities cause the lessor powered stations to vacillate up and down depending on diary distribution within a county. Example; How many of the Lackawanna books went to Clarks Summit versus Carbondale, distribution to Clarks Summit favors WEZX, and to Carbondale puts WILK and WBSX on equal footing with WEZX. The same goes for say whether books in Luzerne County went to either Dallas or Mountaintop. This causes the lessor powered stations (Class A's and WBSX) to go up and down while the three Full Class B's (WMGS, WGGY, WKRZ) to stay more steady. WBSX is a directional B equivalent to a Class A towards WHWK in Binghamton (north in the same direction as Scranton) In this market, you need a three to four book rolling average to accurately identify ratings trends. Also....two events likely effected the ratings, the economy and the presidential election. During important primaries and elections news talk stations usually go up. During economic downturns, country stations often go up (this is a theory that many believe). Now watch over the next few months, the sports stations should go up because of the baseball season heightening (Phils and Yanks both doing well) and the start of football season.

Kevin

 

[berniek]

Those are the words but they were in the context of those who are misdiagnosed. It was a rant about the fact that there are no bio-medical markers to determine autism and a rant about the misdiagnosis, over-diagnosis and over-medication of children. The "99 percent" you quote was 99 percent of the misdiagnosed cases. The haters wish he actually said what they claim he said, but he didn't.

Funny that Savage never mentioned that when he was on Larry King Live, in fact he never claimed his comments were taken out of context.

And Glenn Beck, "ultra-left"? Wrong again. I mean, not even close.

Sorry you missed by attempt at satire....my point even a conservative like Glenn Beck wasn't about to stand up and back up Savage.

And the worst part, there will be people who believe what he said...

 

[luvcoors]

Hello everyone...

I figured I'd just make one post to sum up everything that's been mentioned since my last post...and it appears that some of you skipped over the info that I'd previously written.

The diary placement and return in each of the 5 counties was consistent with each of the previous 5 books...same for diary placement and return within each demo. Yes...I don't have access to Maximizer to see specific zips yet, but that's not gonna affect much. I'm not into believing WILK's numbers are real based on weak programming and diaries. Yes, they've been helped by having an FM signal which I'd attribute to most of their recent gains. But, I'm certain I can find diaries from some 55+ folks that gave them huge qtr. hours in a given week when mixed with the obviously flawed Arbitron math...give them an extra plus, when it's not real. But until I see more data, I'll leave that alone.

But the 107 thing...they've already seen giant swings over the last year or so...it's very real, when they sunk down...they marketed a little more gave away some stuff...and they got back some audience. But to have 2 giant swings in 3 books...low, high, now lower than before.
It's a clear indication when all the other diary factors are put in...the audience didn't like their product for the last 12 weeks and it's now a clear indicator that "business as usual cause no one else can compete" is clearly out of the water. They'll have to live with these numbers until January since no one will really buy into any ratings increase from Summer.

They've clearly done nothing to sustain their image...their talent isn't entertaining or compelling and they're gonna end up missing budget for the rest of the year since it's very clear thru their performance...107 is no longer the rock leader in NEPA. Plain and simple!

 

[kfitz]

Luvcoors,

I don't agree with what you say about diary placement and return. You say "I don't have access to Maximizer to see specific zips yet, but that's not gonna affect much" is incorrect.......In this market, to stations that cover bits and pieces of the market because of poor signals, this placement within the counties can make a significant difference. Obviously....this market is in need of more diaries to help with this issue (which I hear is coming). I make no comment about marketing or programming here, only a comment about this market and its odd nature because of the terrain and having so few high power market covering stations. The maximizer info is always interesting to see because of the odd pockets of listenership. The Class A FM's and the stations with odd signals in this market usually have wide swings....Even the Class B's are not immune, how about last summer when WMGS fell below a 7 share?? WEZX has had many wild swings in the past too. Of course, from a programming point of view, this market has more Classic Rock; Classic Hits; Oldies stations than anywhere else in the nation. Think of it this way.....How many stations in this market play "Take it Easy" from the Eagles in a regular rotation, WQFM, WEZX, WMGS, WWRR, WQFN, WHLM-FM, WHLM, WARM, WLNP, WHCY, WGMF, WSBG, WFYY, WEMR, WPZX, WDMT, WCOZ, WAZL, not to mention the Binghamton, Williamsport, and Allentown leak ins and at least a dozen FM translators. WOW........Will anybody get above a 3 share???? Just kidding of course......and just guessing on the stations in this list.

Kevin

 

[lifetimedj]

I would say the people at Entercom are happy with the book....four stations in the top ten...all showing growth from the fall and a nice book and rebound for The Mountain.

Happy? Only if Entercom likes having lower numbers 25-54. 3 of their 4 stations down in that demo, including WGGY down almost 2 shares. 12+ is meaningless, get into the demos.

 

[DStroyer]

How many stations in this market play "Take it Easy" from the Eagles in a regular rotation, [....]WHCY[...].

The Eagles on Max 106.3? Not likely

 

[kfitz]

Oooops....I think I mixed this up with WNNJ 103.7......you got the general point though! It seems like the Stroudsburg stations change incredibly rapidly; of course people outside of NEPA likely think that of us! I don't travel through Stroudsburg very often.

Kevin

 

[luvcoors]

Luvcoors,

I don't agree with what you say about diary placement and return. You say "I don't have access to Maximizer to see specific zips yet, but that's not gonna affect much" is incorrect.......In this market, to stations that cover bits and pieces of the market because of poor signals, this placement within the counties can make a significant difference. Obviously....this market is in need of more diaries to help with this issue (which I hear is coming). I make no comment about marketing or programming here, only a comment about this market and its odd nature because of the terrain and having so few high power market covering stations. The maximizer info is always interesting to see because of the odd pockets of listenership. The Class A FM's and the stations with odd signals in this market usually have wide swings....Even the Class B's are not immune, how about last summer when WMGS fell below a 7 share?? WEZX has had many wild swings in the past too. Of course, from a programming point of view, this market has more Classic Rock; Classic Hits; Oldies stations than anywhere else in the nation. Think of it this way.....How many stations in this market play "Take it Easy" from the Eagles in a regular rotation, WQFM, WEZX, WMGS, WWRR, WQFN, WHLM-FM, WHLM, WARM, WLNP, WHCY, WGMF, WSBG, WFYY, WEMR, WPZX, WDMT, WCOZ, WAZL, not to mention the Binghamton, Williamsport, and Allentown leak ins and at least a dozen FM translators. WOW........Will anybody get above a 3 share???? Just kidding of course......and just guessing on the stations in this list.

Kevin

Kevin...

The bottom line is that the households within a specific zip will vary from phase to phase and book to book. And Arbitron's goal is to give an accurate representation of listenership in the entire market. Having said that, yes...it'll hurt if 107 lost a few good diaries from one zip to the next. But the bottom line is unavoidable, the market as a whole didn't listen as much. Has nothing to do with diary placement and you can't count on that, it's about putting out an excellent product and worrying about that. We can agree that Arbitron is a bit of a crapshoot...but the great stations perform regardless!

Here's another little piece of info...this market should have never been created this way! Arbitron won't ever admit it publicly! Without saying more, I've got first hand knowledge of the facts. One could easily argue that the market should consist of just Lackwanna & Luzerne for radio since the rest of the playing field isn't even level for 50% of the stations. When Magic hit below a 7 not too long ago, it was because their product needed to be re-tooled a bit. 1 book that low out of 20 doesn't mean squat. When a station like 107 flops back and forth 4 or 5 times in 3 years...it's obvious that it's the product, not an Arbitron "virus".

 

[kfitz]

Well, I read your post, it was certainly interesting. Of course I don't agree. See the county split between Steuben north and Steuben south in Elmira/Corning as what I am talking about. WCKR used to vacillate between a 2 share and a 10 share! NEPA needs more diaries or a creative split say....Luzerne north and Luzerne south, ETC. So I don't agree with your position.

 

[luvcoors]

Why would you split the most populated county of the 5 that are currently used to define the market? That's gotta some of the most unlogical stuff I've ever seen here.

How does spiltting a county in market 230 something makes sense to this discussion?