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Oldies, PPM Basic questions.

L

LinoNYC

Guest
This site's front page has link to an article by Sean Ross who links to an Edison Media Research study:

http://www.edisonresearch.com/home/archives/2007/06/oldies_new_leas.php

It seems that the recent introduction of Arbitron PPM in Philadelphia resulted in a large increase in 12+ for WOGL and oldies station and raises the question as to whether its time to halt the decline of oldies as a format.

I have to wonder if the PPM technology is actually skewing things. For instance, we all frequent places where radio is used as a background oldies station are popular for this application, if one is wearing a meter and it senses an encoded station that counts a a "listen" -eventhough the participant didn't have a say in selecting that station.

How is that to be considered accurate?

I've bee surveyed twice by Arbitron first for my non-listening Brother in 1988, and again for myself in 1992. In both cases my diaries reflected actual listening, not happenstance.

Some observations in this article:

"...another year of 50-year-olds in the prime of their earning years being told that they were somehow viable to advertisers only if they listened to a News/Talk or Sports station."

I'am not entirely clear on what he is saying here, "News-Talk" is almost allways conservative and it, along with sports, almost exclusively on AM. Not surprising they get mostly 50+.


"And even without PPM, there have been resurgent books for Oldies at KRTH (K-Earth 101) Los Angeles (2.4 - 3.5 12-plus from summer '06 to winter '07),...."

I have noticed this in the jukebox business aswell. Alot of this may have to do with the fact that there are no prevailing fads at this time, people have fallen back on familiar, old songs.

The author points out that many of these stations have a "hyper focus" on the late 60s-early 70s period. If so, they have then learned nothing from the fleeting era of All 70s and "Jammin" formats. Even before fragmentation, no era had enough good material to limit the selection so stringently.

"If there's any good news, it's that the handful of pre-Beatles titles with undeniable durability today seem to have found their way back on to some stations that were going to draw a hard line at 1964.

This is so-true. Literally every time I visit a location I see kids playing Beatles, Presley, Bee-Gees, Doors, Stones etc. What pundits often ignore is that this music is not all that different from the Rock and Roll of today and it has never really gone away due to commercials, movie soundtracks etc. Alot different than the situation was with us Boomers and our parent's music.

I don't expect 'kids" to become P-1s for oldies but as people mature, attutude and rebellion are less important and given that people's tastes (usually) become more discerning, I believe there will allways be a place for classic pop (whatever you want to call it).

Lino
 
LinoNYC said:
I have to wonder if the PPM technology is actually skewing things. For instance, we all frequent places where radio is used as a background oldies station are popular for this application, if one is wearing a meter and it senses an encoded station that counts a a "listen" -eventhough the participant didn't have a say in selecting that station.

The PPM is intended, on purpose, by design, to pick up "exposure" to radio, not just intentional listening. This is because Arbitron is a sales tool, and advertisers want to know what people hear, irrespective of whether they picked the station themsleves.

The P1 and P2 behaviour in PPM is no different than in the diary... the PPM just picks up those "lost" small listening spans the diary missed.
 
I told you all that 'oldies' was far from over thanks to tv commercials, "American Idol",the end of pop music as a tool of rebellion, and I told you all of that years ago to much snooty derision; turns out that I might be proven right after all!
as oldies stations nationally rise, and the truly successful ones will use the best of the 50s, concentrate on the 60s,and incorporate a generous amount of the 70s, and go no further than that...
 
lalumia said:
I told you all that 'oldies' was far from over thanks to tv commercials, "American Idol",the end of pop music as a tool of rebellion, and I told you all of that years ago to much snooty derision; turns out that I might be proven right after all!
as oldies stations nationally rise, and the truly successful ones will use the best of the 50s, concentrate on the 60s,and incorporate a generous amount of the 70s, and go no further than that...

The real issue is performing in 25-54, not in 12+. The oldies stations that succeed in the future will be those that move to the Classic Hits stance, with a bit of late, late 60's, a lot of 70's and a bit of early 80's.

The ones that fail will still include 50's, lots of 60's and do not tailor the sound for today's 25-54 demo. If you play 50's, you will get a predominantly 60+ audience, and in today's advertising market, that is not salable.
 
if you play 50s rock(elvis, little richard, johhny cash, bill haley, gene vincent, etc) you will get a young, hip rocknroll audience; i didn't mean perry como and patti page records, but records that have a timeline to 60s pop/rock and 70s pop/rock
 
lalumia said:
if you play 50s rock(elvis, little richard, johhny cash, bill haley, gene vincent, etc) you will get a young, hip rocknroll audience;

My only reaction, meant as a comment and not an insult, is "you have to be kidding."

While there may be a few younger generation folks who like 50's music, it is not enough to sustain a radio station. There is a difference between curiosity seekers and a fringe group and a mass appeal radio format.

The only place where Danny and the Juniors is mass appeal is north of the 60+ border.
 
I'm 40 years old and live for 1955-1990.With a little after 1990 and a little before 1955.Long live that ageless music!But david I do see your point as far as free radio goes.I just hope oldies can be saved somehow.:eek:
 
I'm 40 years old and live for 1955-1990.With a little after 1990 and a little before 1955.Long live that ageless music!


Want to save it? Simple get an Ipod.
 
simple...get an ipod...
why bother? the 'youth demo' already did that and, as a result, have walked away from radio,.....
and thus, 'oldies' shall inherit the terrestrial universe by default....
 
"The PPM is intended, on purpose, by design, to pick up "exposure" to radio, not just intentional listening. This is because Arbitron is a sales tool, and advertisers want to know what people hear, irrespective of whether they picked the station themsleves.

The P1 and P2 behaviour in PPM is no different than in the diary... the PPM just picks up those "lost" small listening spans the diary missed."

-Which a statistician will tell you, pollutes the sample. Really, what is the point in asking a participant questions about income, education etc when the survey will also include incidental exposure. Meaningless.

"This is because Arbitron is a sales tool, and advertisers want to know what people hear, irrespective of whether they picked the station themsleves"

In most of these incidental exposures, the sound level is low and the meter wearer isn't paying attention. That, along with the fact that most stations used for background program long blocks of music that are likely to exceed the time the wearer is exposed to the station, - on average, they probably won't be in the location long enough to be exposed to advertising.

Cyincally, I see PPM as selling stations a bill of goods and forcing them "into the fold" at the risk of being outside the sample, whatever it may now be worth.

Lino T.
 
lalumia said:
simple...get an ipod...
why bother? the 'youth demo' already did that and, as a result, have walked away from radio,.....
and thus, 'oldies' shall inherit the terrestrial universe by default....

18-34. Over 95% use radio weekly and the usage is well within the range for other overlapping cells, like 25-44 o5 35-54 or 45-64.

Since there is essentially no ad revenue for audiences over 55, oldies will probably inherit a pauper's legacy.
 
LinoNYC said:
"The PPM is intended, on purpose, by design, to pick up "exposure" to radio, not just intentional listening. This is because Arbitron is a sales tool, and advertisers want to know what people hear, irrespective of whether they picked the station themsleves.

The P1 and P2 behaviour in PPM is no different than in the diary... the PPM just picks up those "lost" small listening spans the diary missed."

-Which a statistician will tell you, pollutes the sample. Really, what is the point in asking a participant questions about income, education etc when the survey will also include incidental exposure. Meaningless.

"This is because Arbitron is a sales tool, and advertisers want to know what people hear, irrespective of whether they picked the station themsleves"

In most of these incidental exposures, the sound level is low and the meter wearer isn't paying attention. That, along with the fact that most stations used for background program long blocks of music that are likely to exceed the time the wearer is exposed to the station, - on average, they probably won't be in the location long enough to be exposed to advertising.

Cyincally, I see PPM as selling stations a bill of goods and forcing them "into the fold" at the risk of being outside the sample, whatever it may now be worth.

Lino T.

All wrong, and correctable if you care to read the data at the Arbitron website.
 
Here's my take:if it is good advertising for tv,motion pictures and tv spots then why not free radio?Heck even sirius and xm have it.
 
"All wrong, and correctable if you care to read the data at the Arbitron website."

Mr Edwardo, I have bookmarked and visited Arbitron's site repeatedly over the years. The PPM technology is fascinating. However, it's flaw ,as I see it, lies in introducing extraneous data into a demographic survey.

This system gives equal importance to involuntary ,and often ignored, exposure to programming that the subject meter-wearer may have no relevant interest in.

If all you want to do is show a client that your message is "out there" this system is a reveloution.

But, if you think it makes demographic sense to credit a 50 year old with listening to a hip-hop station he may been unwittingly exposed to,,,we have a difference of opinion.

Lino
 
LinoNYC said:
"All wrong, and correctable if you care to read the data at the Arbitron website."

Mr Edwardo, I have bookmarked and visited Arbitron's site repeatedly over the years. The PPM technology is fascinating. However, it's flaw ,as I see it, lies in introducing extraneous data into a demographic survey.

The PPM is not, whatever it means, a "demographic survey." It is a panel-based proportional representation of the universe in the markets it surveys. Every stratification variable in a market is represented in near exact proportion on the panel.

This system gives equal importance to involuntary ,and often ignored, exposure to programming that the subject meter-wearer may have no relevant interest in.

The PPM and the diary method are sales tools, constructed, principally, to advertiser requirements. Ratings are not a programming tool, although we use them as a redport card.

Advertisers want to know who is exposed to advertising. They really do not care if there was interest in the vehicle that caused a message to be exposed... just that it was heard. This is why TSL is no longer called that... it is ATE and AWTE, average time exposed and average weekly time exposed. In fact, it has been advertisers who demanded the PPM, not stations... stations have no real desire to up the ratings cost by 60%... buit advertisers wanted a measurement of exposure, not of just remmebered and recalled personal choice listening... because that occasional listening can represent a real difference in the reach of a campaign.

If all you want to do is show a client that your message is "out there" this system is a reveloution.

You have it backwards... it was the clients who demanded this kind of system as it meets their needs.

But, if you think it makes demographic sense to credit a 50 year old with listening to a hip-hop station he may been unwittingly exposed to,,,we have a difference of opinion.

But the fact is he did listen... maybe while driving his keids to school. He would not put that in a diary, as "the kids turned it on" but the PPM would detect it... and know he heard ads on the hip hop stations. The best example is people in a workplace where one station is put on for all employees. You think ads run 8 to 10 hours a day on that station are not heard?

Again, ratings are predominantly and principally a sales tool, designed to meet the needs of advertisers, not stations.
 
DavidEduardo said:
18-34. Over 95% use radio weekly and the usage is well within the range for other overlapping cells, like 25-44 o5 35-54 or 45-64.

Since there is essentially no ad revenue for audiences over 55, oldies will probably inherit a pauper's legacy.

"18 to 34" The youngest of those probably have much lower TSL than ten years ago. There is no denying that radio useful enjoyable informative I listen everyday mostly to WNYC. There is also no denying that the attraction among young-future listeners is free music which they now get elsewhere.

"Since there is essentially no ad revenue for audiences over 55, oldies will probably inherit a pauper's legacy."

Exhibit "A" Billing gross New York stations 06-05:


WLTW (106.7 FM) $65.6 $59.8
WINS (1010 AM) $59.7 $60.8
WCBS-AM (880) $56.2 $56.2
WFAN (660 AM) $50.6 $52.5
WHTZ (100.3 FM) $47.3 $47.7
WPLJ (95.5 FM) $37.2 $39.7
WRKS (98.7 FM) $35.5 $39.8
WAXQ (104.3 FM) $35.1 $33.8
WKTU (103.5 FM) $34.6 $37.4
WSKQ (97.9 FM) $32.5 $37.3
WQHT (97.1 FM) $31.9 $37.2
WWPR (105.1 FM) $28.3 $24.1
WBLS (107.5 FM) $26.8 $27.0
WABC (770 AM) $23.4 $24.2
WOR (710 AM) $20.3 $21.0
WFNY (92.3 FM) $18.7 $50.8
WWFS (102.7 FM) $18.0 $15.4
WPAT-FM (93.1) $16.6 $17.2
WCBS-FM (101.1) $16.1 $23.9
WQCD (101.9 FM) $14.8 $20.1
WQXR (96.3 FM) $13.2 $15.8
WCAA (105.9 FM) $12.3 $4.3
WADO (1280 AM) $11.4 $8.1
WEPN (1050 AM) $10.3 $7.8

You often contend that there is no interest in 50+, well three of the top-ten billing stations in market #1 are on AM and all have over 50 medians. Even WABC with the oldest demos of all averages (somehow) in the 23-24M/yr.

I understood why CBS dumped oldies on it's FM -they saw a cheap-to-run format that might also skew younger and as a publicly traded company they are expected to go where the highest potential lies.

If the youngest demo problem can't be addressed, it might only be a time-buying move.

I have no doubt that we would have an AM oldies station if this weren't a prestige market and thus all the viable (50KW) stations spoken for.

Lino
 
LinoNYC said:
You often contend that there is no interest in 50+, well three of the top-ten billing stations in market #1 are on AM and all have over 50 medians. Even WABC with the oldest demos of all averages (somehow) in the 23-24M/yr.

Yes, but two of those stations, WINS and WCBS, have much more inventory than the FMs, and sell, principally, based on 25-54 delivery and reach (the only format that can successfully sell reach is all news). So even they sell the 25-54, and pretty much give the 55+ away because nearly nobody buys it.

WFAN gets sports-destined dollars based on 25-54 male delivery, which it does provide with little spillage. In additon, there are sports marketing dollars that come to sprots radio no other staitons can get. Again, they are selling 25-54. Whether they have any 55+ is irrelvant and immaterial; nobody buys 55+-

I understood why CBS dumped oldies on it's FM -they saw a cheap-to-run format that might also skew younger and as a publicly traded company they are expected to go where the highest potential lies.

There is little savings between the two formats... a few hundred thousand in salaries fo ron-air, maybe. But the other expenses (surprise, but programming is not the major expense at a stations... sales is) are the same, so there was no real incentive to do it for labor savings. The real reason is that CBS FM was off 20% in billing since 2000 and the market was up. So they were falling further and further behind. Good move? Not really insofar as the new format goes, but they had to change. Oldies based in 50's and 60's is pretty much dead and uappealing for sale.s

I have no doubt that we would have an AM oldies station if this weren't a prestige market and thus all the viable (50KW) stations spoken for.

Oldies AMs are few and far between. Successful ones are nearly impossible to find. It´s not the band, howerve, it is the demo. Agencies are specifically told what to buy, and 55+ is not often, if ever, asked for.
 
Advertisers want to know who is exposed to advertising. They really do not care if there was interest in the vehicle that caused a message to be exposed... just that it was heard. This is why TSL is no longer called that... it is ATE and AWTE, average time exposed and average weekly time exposed. In fact, it has been advertisers who demanded the PPM, not stations... stations have no real desire to up the ratings cost by 60%... buit advertisers wanted a measurement of exposure, not of just remmebered and recalled personal choice listening... because that occasional listening can represent a real difference in the reach of a campaign.

I appreciate the explanation of this, it was not made clear on Arbitron's site but it is pretty much what I suspected. I also understand it's potential as a 'catch-all" mode for all auditory advertising.

I does seem that with this approach 12+ will be meaningless to us "civilians", even as a beauty contest.

Lino
 
LinoNYC said:
I does seem that with this approach 12+ will be meaningless to us "civilians", even as a beauty contest.

Of course, the snappy answer is that whatever Arbitron gives away for free is worth exactly what you pay for it.

But the reality is that most "occasional" listening (like while being in a store, or in a colleague's cubicle, etc., will be of such short duration that it will not change much the listening to each panelist's favorite stations. There will be those odd "grandma listening to the CHR station" things, but granny will not contribute miuch TSL to the staiton, so the numbers are sill mostly made up of P1 listeners, just like the diary.

The real issue with the PPM is that it measures precisely. Listners are not precise in the diary. For example, a diary entry might say that from 9:00 AM to 11 AM WXXX was listened to. In fact, the listening was from 9:17 to 10:40, and there was a 22 minute period that the radio was turned down to get on a phone conference. SO the listening was at least 3 quarter hours less in reality... about 40% off. In fact, in the two running markets, the average time really listened IS off by around 40%... a little over 11 hours per person vs. 19 in the diary. People are listening the same amount, but they are being measured better.

And that is another reason why radio stations are not that enthused... it's advertisers pushing the meter.
 
DavidEduardo said:
The ones that fail will still include 50's, lots of 60's and do not tailor the sound for today's 25-54 demo. If you play 50's, you will get a predominantly 60+ audience, and in today's advertising market, that is not salable.

Hey all my home run hitters, and cool baby sitters. Got somethin’ here ‘ya may want to see. Now as far as the idea, that 50’s, 60’s Rock ‘n Roll is age challenged, that’s just not necessarily the fact, Jack. If I can draw your attention to my listener point of origin network locations, for HyLitRadio.com, for the month of June, you will see highlighted in orange, college network listening patterns. Seems like those in the know, know where to go, to discovering a whole new fresh catalogue of music. And I do mean the entire catalogue, hand picked.  I have also included, other selected highlights; sampled from my June, top 500. The average daily time spent listening to HyLitRadio during the month of June, is 3 hr. 18 min. HyLitRadio knows how to hit the spot and spot the hits, particularly when it comes to oldies.

1.Comcast Cable                                   27,534
2.Verizon Internet Services                     25,123
11.America Online                                  9,479
14.University of Pennsylvania                   851
30.Temple University                              465
33.WIDENER UNIVERSITY                        451
34.Merck and Co.                                  431
39.Bristol Myers Squibb Pharma net          408
46.Johnson & Johnson                            388
50.Rowan College of New Jersey               361
51.City of Philadelphia                            357
52.Philadelphia Newspapers                     355
54.Virtua Health                                    343
64.Wyeth-Ayerst Research                      276
65.IMS HEALTH                                     269
73.STATE OF DELAWARE                         238
79.University of Delaware                        225
83.Childrens Hospital of Philadelphia           220
100.Saint Peters College                         186
113.Trenton State College                      166
185.university of delaware                      95
194.Federal Aviation Administration           89
206.gwynedd-mercy college                    85
211.Univ of Medicine Dentistry of NJ         82
229.Middlesex County Collegde                76
238.US Dept of Justice                           72
272.childrens hospital of Philadelphia         62
277.Ursinus Colledge                              61
281.The Chase Manhattan Bank, N.A.        60
294.Lockheed Martin Corporation              56
295.the boeing company                         56
298.Naval Ocean Systems Center             55
312.Stockton State College                     51
316.Commonwealth of Pennsylvania          50
317.Philadelphia College of Medicine          50
318.NORAD-USSPACECOM/J6D                 50
325.United States Postal Service.             48
334.Glaxo.                                            45
337.bryn mawr college                            45
375.New Jersey Higher Education Net        38
387.trenton state college                        36
388.wyeth-ayerst research                      36
398.Holy Family University                       35
411.New York City Public Schools              33
414.The Pennsylvania State University       32
429.eastern mennonite university              29
434.thomas jefferson university                29
480.main line health inc.                          24
492.STATE OF NEW JERSEY                      23
495.city of new york                               23
Totals:                                                 150,012


* Numerical values and networks name display's are unaltered, as compiled. Data is proprietary and may not be disseminated, distributed, copied, or reproduced without the expressed written consent of Hy Lit Radio Technologies Inc. except as presented in this forum. Printed copies are available. Responsible replies invited. All rights reserved.

  This, has been a recording.
 
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