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Open Format Opportunities For Boston

> What are the open format opportunities available to stations
> in Boston?
> See anyone changing format after Jan 1? Any surprises? Any
> suggestions?
>
> Merry Christmas!
>

Open formats in Boston at the moment include all genres of Spanish, but most likely would include Spanish AC (like Amor 890), Spanish Tropical (like Mega 1150/890/1400), and Hurban (like Univision's "La Kalle"), smooth jazz, hot talk (like Free FM), rhythmic AC (like Star 93.7), a true urban AC, a classic soul station... the list goes on and on.

I don't see anyone changing format on January 1, but I think that 2006 will be an interesting year for the Boston market:

We're destined to lose Classical 102.5, which will free up a huge signal for something new; and the aftermath of that change will certainly shake things up a bit.

We'll also be getting a Black talk format on 1090 WILD, which will leave the future of Black Gospel station "Praise 1090" in question.

The construction of the new 1200/1330/1600 complex will likely get underway, and will lead to tremendous signal improvements for these three stations.

If Infinity's Free FM becomes successful, you can expect that they'll want to put elements of the network (or the whole thing) on a Boston affiliate.

What will Entercom do with WAAF, which is suffering from some fairly poor ratings? What will WTKK do if Jay Severin doesn't return, and if Michael Graham is forced out the door by controversial comments? Will WRKO's new programs "Boston This Morning" and "Boston Tonight" bring the station back into the spotlight, or will the station plummet to new lows? Who will buy 102.5, and what will happen to the rest of Charles River Broadcasting???

We'll just have to wait.
 
> Open formats in Boston at the moment include all genres of
> Spanish, but most likely would include Spanish AC (like Amor
> 890), Spanish Tropical (like Mega 1150/890/1400), and Hurban
> (like Univision's "La Kalle"), smooth jazz, hot talk (like
> Free FM), rhythmic AC (like Star 93.7), a true urban AC, a
> classic soul station... the list goes on and on.
>
The time isn't right for someone to flip an FM to Spanish, but I could see some form of Spanish language programming pop up on 1510 once Paul Allen finally throws in the towel at WWZN. Rhythmic AC was executed as well as it could be on 93.7 and it didn't work. Most markets don't have a station like this. I can't see Boston getting one again anytime soon. As long as WILD-FM is doing what it's doing, you won't see anyone flip to a gold-based Urban AC or Rhythmic AC.

> I don't see anyone changing format on January 1, but I think
> that 2006 will be an interesting year for the Boston market:

What is with the magical date of January first? Not too many stations flip formats on that day. Most of the time, flips seem to happen a few weeks before up to a few weeks after the spring and fall books. Most radio management folks are taking vacation the last two weeks of December following the fall book and the LAST thing they want to be doing is prepping for a January 1st format change.
>
> We're destined to lose Classical 102.5, which will free up a
> huge signal for something new; and the aftermath of that
> change will certainly shake things up a bit.
>
If Entercom winds up getting 102.5, my guess is that WAAF will move there, freeing up 107.3 for something else. WVEI-FM maybe?
>
> We'll also be getting a Black talk format on 1090 WILD,
> which will leave the future of Black Gospel station "Praise
> 1090" in question.
>
The Radio One talk format is only running from 10am-7pm Monday through Friday. WILD will run the gospel format mornings and weekends.

> The construction of the new 1200/1330/1600 complex will
> likely get underway, and will lead to tremendous signal
> improvements for these three stations.
>
I don't think signal improvements will help 1330 and 1600 all that much. It's possible that WRCA could improve their standing a little. Maybe. The big winner here is WKOX, and I think that the progressive talk format will stay after the move to 50K. With a better signal in a mid-term election year in a liberal market, WKOX should improve in the ratings.

> If Infinity's Free FM becomes successful, you can expect
> that they'll want to put elements of the network (or the
> whole thing) on a Boston affiliate.
>
Everyone here seems to think that WBCN is "safe." Don't bet on it. If the ratings really tank after Howard leaves and the Patriots season ends, Infinity will be tempted to put more talk on 104.1....or 100.7.

> What will Entercom do with WAAF, which is suffering from
> some fairly poor ratings?
>
If they can get WCRB, look for WAAF to move there. If not, look for more of the same. Considering WMKK's lackluster performance, the last thing Entercom wants to do is blow up their other FM, especially since where 107.3's transmitter will finally end up is in question right now.

> What will WTKK do if Jay Severin doesn't return, and if Michael Graham is forced out the door by controversial comments?

They'll hire some other guy to to afternoons, or just put Hannity there. Considering all the questionable changes over at WRKO and 96.9's extension of Imus's contract, WTKK will remain talk for the forseeable future.

> Will WRKO's new programs "Boston This Morning" and "Boston Tonight" bring the station back into the spotlight, or will the station plummet to new lows?

WRKO had to try something to young up the demos but I don't think these changes will help at all. Besides, once the political talk heats up with all the congressional campaigns and the governors race coming up in '06, I fully expect 680 to revert back to their usual political neo-con talk programming.

> Who will buy 102.5, and what will happen to the rest of
> Charles River Broadcasting???
>
This is the big wild card. It could be Entercom, Clear Channel or even the Red Sox, although the latter is a bit far fetched. If classical does indeed go away, it does open the door for the other "relaxation" format...smooth jazz. The primary reason it didn't work before was because most people used WCRB for that purpose. With classical gone, someone else might take the plunge with it. Probably not Greater Media, where the format would cannibalize WMJX but maybe CC could put a jazzer on 102.5 if they can purchase the signal from Charles River. But who knows?

Mike Thomas
 
And, for Post 500!

> If Entercom winds up getting 102.5, my guess is that WAAF
> will move there, freeing up 107.3 for something else.
> WVEI-FM maybe?

Actually, the 107.3 simulcast would not only be clear but would also be very beneficial, considering the poor signal of WEEI west of 128 at night. 1440 could then be used to simulcast WRKO, which also experiences similar issues. And if they're stuck with the entire Charles River group, how about WZEI-FM 107.5 out on the Cape?

> It's possible that WRCA could improve their
> standing a little. Maybe.

As long as Beasley owns 1330, it's staying brokered; so I wouldn't be expecting any Arbitron numbers or other improvements to the station.

> If they can get WCRB, look for WAAF to move there. If not,
> look for more of the same. Considering WMKK's lackluster
> performance, the last thing Entercom wants to do is blow up
> their other FM, especially since where 107.3's transmitter
> will finally end up is in question right now.

If they were to do that, it would certainly solidify the station's place in the Boston market... and might tempt 104.1 more toward becoming Free.

> This is the big wild card. It could be Entercom, Clear
> Channel or even the Red Sox, although the latter is a bit
> far fetched. If classical does indeed go away, it does open
> the door for the other "relaxation" format...smooth jazz.
> The primary reason it didn't work before was because most
> people used WCRB for that purpose. With classical gone,
> someone else might take the plunge with it. Probably not
> Greater Media, where the format would cannibalize WMJX but
> maybe CC could put a jazzer on 102.5 if they can purchase
> the signal from Charles River. But who knows?

If Clear Channel purchases 102.5, I'm betting on conservative talk from Premiere. In fact, Clear Channel is canning a smooth jazz station in Minneapolis to bring an FM talker to the rather liberal market.

However, on the contrary, Clear Channel knows how to do Smooth Jazz. They own some of the country's most successful outlets: 106.1 WJJZ in Philadelphia, 95.5 WNUA in Chicago, and Love 94 in Miami. If marketed and positioned correctly, a smooth jazz station could take not only listeners from the classical format, but also listeners from WMJX, and ticked-off listeners from WILD-FM during the afternoon hip-hop hours; while attracting an affluent demographic. With classical out of the way, I'd agree that smooth jazz has a chance to succeed. And if CC doesn't do it, perhaps 99.1 should try it again: they'd have no competition this time.

One question: Can Greater Media buy another property in Boston? Perhaps this sounds a bit far-fetched, but if they are maxed out, what about moving WKLB to the 102.5 frequency, and selling 99.5 to one of the other players in town, or even Univision or Salem, both of which were reportedly interested.
 
> >
> The time isn't right for someone to flip an FM to Spanish,
> but I could see some form of Spanish language programming
> pop up on 1510 once Paul Allen finally throws in the towel
> at WWZN. Rhythmic AC was executed as well as it could be on
> 93.7 and it didn't work. Most markets don't have a station
> like this. I can't see Boston getting one again anytime
> soon. As long as WILD-FM is doing what it's doing, you
> won't see anyone flip to a gold-based Urban AC or Rhythmic
> AC.
>
>
Boston NEEDS a strong signal Rhythm station that dosen't play nothing but rap. A Jammin oldies format done RIGHT would work. I would do it at 103.3 myself. THe music format I would like to see someone try wouyld be "Party Favorties" Ch 521 in Comcast digital cable-Music choice. It goes 60s,70s,80s,90s,now with SOME hip hop but not TOO much.

How about having it at 107.3? Call it Party 107.3 but keep the old call letters of WAAF.

If anyone at JMN is listening,how about an "Old School:" show on Sunday night to counter Barry Scott?
 
> Actually, the 107.3 simulcast would not only be clear but
> would also be very beneficial, considering the poor signal
> of WEEI west of 128 at night. 1440 could then be used to
> simulcast WRKO, which also experiences similar issues. And
> if they're stuck with the entire Charles River group, how
> about WZEI-FM 107.5 out on the Cape?

107.3 simulcasting WEEI would make a lot of sense, but only if their transmitter stays in Paxton. It wouldn't help at all if they stick with the plan to move it further east. I doubt they would want to simulcast WRKO on 1440. I can't see that being an attractive sell in Worcester, especially since WTAG has Rush so 1440 would have to air something else from 12-3pm. Mornings are already weak on WRKO and the new night show has a decidedly Boston angle. That leaves Howie. There's not much to attract the Worcester listener.

> If they were to do that, it would certainly solidify the
> station's place in the Boston market... and might tempt
> 104.1 more toward becoming Free.

If anything, WAAF on 102.5 would probably push Infinity away from talk. WBCN hasn't taken on WAAF seriously in recent years because of AAF's signal limitations. WBCN can suck wind and still beat WAAF when they sound their best. Putting WAAF on 102.5 changes the game. Infinity would be hesitant to cede the rock audience to a strong competitor, especially one that plays the amount of gold that WAAF currently does. That could jeopardize WZLX as well as WBCN. If it were to happen, look for a renewed rock rivalry between WAAF and WBCN.

> If Clear Channel purchases 102.5, I'm betting on
> conservative talk from Premiere. In fact, Clear Channel is
> canning a smooth jazz station in Minneapolis to bring an FM
> talker to the rather liberal market.

That's because there's not a lot of talk stations in that market. Clear Channel doesn't own a full signal AM there to use for one. It's the same situation in Pittsburgh. Boston already has WRKO, WTKK and WTTT, so I can't see Clear Channel jumping into the crowded conservatalk wars, especially with that signal. Sports, Rock, AAA, Country, and AC are also well covered and CC already has the corner on pop and hip-hop/R&B. A Spanish language format wouldn't generate enough billing to justify the estimated $100 million price tag for WCRB. Smooth Jazz would be a logical choice for 102.5. As you mentioned, they've done it well in other markets.

> One question: Can Greater Media buy another property in
> Boston? Perhaps this sounds a bit far-fetched, but if they
> are maxed out, what about moving WKLB to the 102.5
> frequency, and selling 99.5 to one of the other players in
> town, or even Univision or Salem, both of which were
> reportedly interested.

I can't see that happening. 99.5 covers the more rural areas of the market and country on that frequency works. They'd gain very few listeners by moving to 102.5. It wouldn't make financial sense since they'd have to spin off 99.5 for much less than they would pay for WCRB with little return on that investment. I would be surprised if Univision was to get WCRB but not Salem. A "102.5 The Fish" doing Contemporary Christian is not out of the realm of possibility.

Mike Thomas
 
> I doubt they would want to simulcast WRKO on 1440. I can't
> see that being an attractive sell in Worcester, especially
> since WTAG has Rush so 1440 would have to air something else
> from 12-3pm. Mornings are already weak on WRKO and the new
> night show has a decidedly Boston angle. That leaves Howie.
> There's not much to attract the Worcester listener.

Perhaps they could just sell 1440 in this scenario, then, given that the programming would have to be modified to fit Worcester. Essentially, I'd meant that it would just be stupid to have WVEI-AM and WVEI-FM airing the exact same programming, but the new Boston-centric lineup wouldn't work in Worcester. (I could have put in a counter-example with CBS4's Worcester bureau, but I doubt they have any idea what the hell they're doing over there anyhow)

> If anything, WAAF on 102.5 would probably push Infinity away
> from talk. WBCN hasn't taken on WAAF seriously in recent
> years because of AAF's signal limitations. WBCN can suck
> wind and still beat WAAF when they sound their best.
> Putting WAAF on 102.5 changes the game. Infinity would be
> hesitant to cede the rock audience to a strong competitor,
> especially one that plays the amount of gold that WAAF
> currently does. That could jeopardize WZLX as well as WBCN.
> If it were to happen, look for a renewed rock rivalry
> between WAAF and WBCN.

But if that were to happen, it's not as if there will be any more total listeners. I'd doubt that too many listeners in WAAF's audience would trade iPod time for radio time if they suddenly have two radio station choices.

Right now, the two station's ratings total to a number in the high 4s. Would Infinity still let WBCN live if 104.1's numbers went down to a 2.0? It would be a good ego match, but I can't see it being all that successful for either station for all that long.

> That's because there's not a lot of talk stations in that
> market. Clear Channel doesn't own a full signal AM there to
> use for one. It's the same situation in Pittsburgh. Boston
> already has WRKO, WTKK and WTTT, so I can't see Clear
> Channel jumping into the crowded conservatalk wars,
> especially with that signal. Sports, Rock, AAA, Country, and
> AC are also well covered and CC already has the corner on
> pop and hip-hop/R&B. A Spanish language format wouldn't
> generate enough billing to justify the estimated $100
> million price tag for WCRB. Smooth Jazz would be a logical
> choice for 102.5. As you mentioned, they've done it well in
> other markets.

All your points on talk make sense. But recall that Clear Channel announced that they did plan to launch an FM talk in a top 10 market in 2006. We may not be top 10 material any more, but all markets in the top 10 already have their fair share of talk stations...

I doubt that CC would go Spanish on 102.5 as well; while they could probably pull every Spanish listener in the market as they'd be the only station, there'd likely be a lack of national advertising like most of the Spanish media outlets in Boston to keep a "Mega 102.5" afloat.

I'd personally enjoy a Smooth Jazz station in Boston; I'm just not too confident that it will happen. It probably has a shot, though; Radio One would likely consider it was well (they run it in Atlanta).

> I would be surprised if
> Univision was to get WCRB but not Salem.

They both have the cash to make it happen. The reason that Univision would likely be interested is that 102.5 is Boston's last property for a corporation to grab up, and the Hispanic population is slated to rise. An FM could also encourage Univision to buy WUNI and get a Boston operation running. But, I'd doubt that Univision would want to be the one to dispose of the Cape Cod/RI properties; they wouldn't be able to use any of them!

> A "102.5 The Fish"
> doing Contemporary Christian is not out of the realm of
> possibility.

Again, Salem has the money. And like Clear Channel to Smooth Jazz, Salem owns the country's CCM flagships; including KLTY 94.9 in Dallas and 104.7 The Fish in Atlanta. They could also a Christian Talk/Teaching and a Conservative News/Talk on Cape Cod; the Rhode Island sticks are useless but they could run two talk formats on them anyhow.

Still, Salem's CCMs don't work everywhere. Chicago and Boston aren't the same market, but do have a somewhat similar political/religious makeup. Despite having a transmitter in the affluent suburbs, and a signal reaching all potential listeners, "106.7 The Fish" received ratings in the low 1s and high 0s before the station was traded off to Univision. It would be a shame to see such a great frequency in Boston be wasted with ratings like that. But if the market were to accept it, "The Fish" is not a horrible concept and just might work.
 
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