Panama City Book Out Today - Pedictions?

[852RadioDude]

Clear Channel takes top 3
Magic - Island, WYOO and 97X all take hits.
Double 0 - PFM and Kat Country close gaps on WILN and WPAP, no where close to overtaking them but they start making their move.

The Dude in the know

 

[emeripsni]

With you on all but WYOO. No hit for them. They will take
hit next time.

Of course I was told by "one of the busiest broadcasters in
North West Florida", and I quote:

What really amazes me is people that really think they know what they are talking about... since you don't work in radio keep your comments about how the business works to yourself because you are making yourself look stupid.

 

[cceng1]

just looking at the numbers.....they came in at 11am.......not bad......inspite of themselves, RBA had a good book.....

 

[edwardabalama]

I would hate to be in the Magic Broadcasting building today. Someone's gonna need to grease the door hinge after this is through. Is there anyone good left?

Anyone know where I can find the Clear Channel ratings party? I bet there will be plenty of champagne.

Will the Island sink into oblivion? Will evil Clear Channel rule the world? Tune in next time to "as the panhandle turns".

 

[852RadioDude]

I was pretty close CC top 3, WYOO, Wave, then PFM beats WILN. WOW!

Magic Noncasting rolls along, sinking like a rock. One more station left to ruin. Can they do it? Well, let's look at what he has touched and how it has worked. Hmmm, I know, let's give him another station. The busiest man in radio better get it together or he will be the most unemployed person in radio.

 

[cceng1]

The party was at Outback on 23rd St.....no champagne....I was drinking Stella Artois on draft

 

[redneckriviera]

Anybody seen the old-fashioned 12-week "Fall" book split-out from the newfangled two-book published in R&R and All Access? The rough math looks like Sunny clipped PAP for the #1 spot. Is that right?

It also looks like The Great 108 opened up a couple-share lead on Island. Verrrrry interesting...

 

[PCTVandRadio]

What a turn of events. So much has changed, but so much stays the same.

Charlie, congrats to you and the staff at Clear Channel. Sunny and PAP just keep on keeping on. I wonder why other owners don't subscribe to the theory of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it."?

I wonder what affect this is going to have on the folks off Laird Street in Panama City Beach? It looks like things haven't been the same ratings wise since Tom and Kim left (were forced out of) the building. Somewhere in Bay Point, I'm sure Kim is snickering.

I'm sure the folks at Duh-bull-owe are happy. Congrats to WPFM on overtaking WILN in the top 40 battle. Who would've ever thought that 2-3 years ago.

More thoughts on the book are both encouraged and appreciated.

 

[Insanity]

PANAMA CITY RATINGS! Isn't this a replay of what has happened year after year? Someone comes in and buys a group, thinks they can do it better, and then, after turning over the entire staff, they realize that "gollee Goober those people actually had a clue of how to do it. Now what do we do? What happened to the cash flow?" CC wins by default, again

 

[Tibbs4]

CC could so easily steal another 10 points! When you consider the overalls (25-54, etc.) I actually think it's
amazingly "fair" distribution and that CC is being "considerate" to Magic and 00. I think Magic's decline is overblown, but
I think there are some issues ahead. Once you get past the top 3 stations, when did anyone make any real
money in their stations anyway??? Mid 80's was the turning point of that market. It hasn't ever been able to support
the number of stations since. The fact that the markets split into three groups speaks loudly about it's reward.


Everyone knows PC is a market of despair financially after CC gets paid. But the beach and it's cute assets
is always alluring to most.

 

[attackpoodle]

I actually think it's amazingly "fair" distribution and that CC is being "considerate" to Magic and 00. I think Magic's decline is overblown, but I think there are some issues ahead.

CC being considerate..that's funny. If they can take it all they will and they deserve to if the others can't compete.

Magics decline overblown

...remember this is a rolling average so the recent book has got to be real bad.
You're wrong about making money, Styles (now Magic) had growth cash flow in 2003, 2004, 2005. Each station stood on its own and the group beat CC with one less station in Spring 2005.

Everyone knows PC is a market of despair financially after CC gets paid. But the beach and it's cute assets is always alluring to most.

I agree it would suck to live off of the crumbs of CC, but smart investors no matter where they are from never think that "scorched earth " is cute... but then again????

 

[Tibbs4]

attack --- explain why then that CC allows two underperforming stations with underperforming formats when Magic and 00
are beating them? There's a reason. Actually several. And I am not talking about their signals.

For example: Why isn't CC just busting WILN and WPFM's numbers with a CHR? I can go on...there's lots
of shots that could smash two lesser groups. I stand by my comment.

Magics declines aren't their deaths, they are a sign of a problem coming up in the months ahead. Down? Sure. Bad. Yep.
But, as far as what's really possible going to happen ---I have to think ownership and management changes have a way of
giving small community businesses a way to not spend $$$ with say Tom and/or Kim for being 'ousted.' Worsening
product seems to hurt, too. I am sorry but the cashflow numbers from 03-05 combined from Styles is about
that of Charlies new transmitter toys and that's pretty easy to screw up and turn into a nada with falling
numbers and bad karma. Styles beat CC in $$$? Never heard that. My head is in the sand, though. Still, whose
getting rich on PCB? I know it's relative. I am suggesting profits of $200,000-$500,000 when I talk of staying afloat
when the tide turns as having substantial staying power and cash flow, and Kim & Tom did alot right by
the $$$, but is that happening now? Sounds doubtful. Double 00 has busted butt trying to turn a profit and after cutting corners
you can do only so much. Best thing is to "borrow" it from other markets. It's just easier than squeezing pennies
from a over-radioed seasonal, small market like PC/

As for cute assets, I wasn't referring to the Earth being scorched. But, I was 22-24 when I was wild and free
on the world's most beautiful beaches. Forgive me. That comment had nothing to do with scoring in business.
It's sort of been a common thread on here.

All cutting up aside, I think 95% of those non-CC radio owners of the past 25 years would agree that radio
on PCB is a seriously rough way to make a living. Tom & Kim managed to defy the normal. I have always been
in agreement that they did better than anyone expected and jumped back in like no one. Charlie has his opinions
on the revolving bankruptcy doors of PCB. Charlie, what'd be your chances of buying say even one 100kw FM
(let's say for fun even WPFM???) would you even pay half of today's average ripoff market prices?

 

[attackpoodle]

Touche....

CC protects their cash cows WFSY and WPAP by flanking with the other sticks. The Beat happened to win this time (even with a poor signal).

Charlie's "toys" would be Cap Ex therefore would not affect the reported cash flow.

Styles did have great relationships, good ideas/ratings and marketing tactics. They had more local advertisers,. along with the regional and national.

You are correct, the revolving door, bad morale, management/ownership decisions, and declining ratings take about 90 days to six months to catch up to you. Its like a toliet, once the flush starts its difficult to stop it.

Ah yes, the days of the Great 108 and only a few stations..those were the days!

 

[panhandler]

I noticed that WILN was beaten by WPFM. Is this the first time this has happened?

I always remember Island being the top CHR in the market. And PFM isn't live all day after Kraddick, are they?

Touche....

CC protects their cash cows WFSY and WPAP by flanking with the other sticks. The Beat happened to win this time (even with a poor signal).

Charlie's "toys" would be Cap Ex therefore would not affect the reported cash flow.

Styles did have great relationships, good ideas/ratings and marketing tactics. They had more local advertisers,. along with the regional and national.

You are correct, the revolving door, bad morale, management/ownership decisions, and declining ratings take about 90 days to six months to catch up to you. Its like a toliet, once the flush starts its difficult to stop it.

Ah yes, the days of the Great 108 and only a few stations..those were the days!

 

[Tibbs4]

If memory serves me correctly, which is a joke in itself...

105.9 went on the air sometime around 1985, although it may have been around with less than 50kw prior to that (something
tells me it was 3kw or something, but that's probably innaccurate or something I remember about another frequency) and
evolved to Top 40 Island 106, WILN sometime in 1987???

I think it was light type music before becoming Island, and not competition to WPFM. Prior to 1987, roughly, WPFM was THE hot and
dominant station on PCB (Most of the early 1980's-through 1986 (maybe early 1987) and then ownership issues/financial
etc., caused it to start faltering and Island picked up the slack by going right for PFM when it flipped to Top 40. Island
sounded pretty tight and focused. Was it during Don Cavelleri's (sp?) time it went Island? Or did Don buy it after it had
been Island? I know Group M later bought WTBB (Pirate Radio 97) and Island, but that's another great fiasco story all to itself.

PFM's late 80's to mid-2000's flips flops with CHR/Top 40/Active/Churban stuff --- Mix 108, The Zone, Rock 108 and Hot, etc., gave Island the stability to be #1 through that period for the format.

I think 1987 was about the last time WPFM, which became WDRK and later WLHR, beat Island with any of their attempts
at formats. I am surprised that a lifeless version of WPFM could have beat Island this easily after years of dominating Top 40
in the market. Island must really be shabby, because no one had said much positive about the re-invented WPFM from Double 00.

I dunno if it still qualifies, but for a long time WPFM was one of the longest standing frequencies to not change it's format from
basically Rock/CHR/Top 40 (meaning that it's never been Country, Talk, or say Jazz.) Maybe it was disqualified somewhere along the
line. Didn't it also stand as the station that ran the King Buscuit Flower Hour the longest? Maybe just urban legends.

Still will always be THE GREAT 108 to most of us, 20 dang years later. That says something. What a wonderful time that was.
Enough. I am almost starting to cry.

 

[redneckriviera]

I am surprised that a lifeless version of WPFM could have beat Island this easily after years of dominating Top 40
in the market. Island must really be shabby, because no one had said much positive about the re-invented WPFM from Double 00.

Although I'm way out of the demo, Kidd Kraddick sounds very good to me: well-produced, very well targeted. It wouldn't be a big shock--especially considering that the core demo (girls 12-24?) have no interest in "local" stuff--to see KK with some big numbers to start the day. Beyond that--when both Island & PFM are essentially jukeboxes--the one with fewer commercials probably has an edge. Would that be 108? Maybe next book it'll be Island.

Without sitting down with a legal pad and a 24-pack, I wouldn't be able to compare their playlists. Last time I heard them both (last year) they sounded like they were largely playing the same tunes; but, again, I'm waaaayyyy out of the demo, so it all sounds like sh*t to me! ;D

FWIW, a great/smokin'/well-promoted Hot AC would kill both of them... take most of their numbers & all of their money! Don't give me this "It's been tried and didn't work" stuff. Emphasis on those adjectives: great/smokin'/well-promoted.

 

[Tibbs4]

RNR, good to see you posting. I agree with Hot AC concept. Imagine a really great, beachy Hot AC concept
with the good near-Alt 80's stuff (anything from Pet Shop Boys, Annimotion, Cutting Crew, Robert Palmer, etc. maybe Janet Jackson?)
to semi-currents (hardest stuff maybe My Morning Jacket, Ringside) that hits 25 (your and my real Panama City Beach ages - and sticking)
to 45, geared toward women that don't wanna hear Elton John and Whitney Houston, but strong enough to get a few points from men.
Should be reasonably strong demographic for some good ad dollars, which Island and 'PFM have to struggle to get now.
The Legendary Great 108 updated, but never forgetting it's heyday. You are 1,000% accurate that it hasn't been tried or
done correctly on PCB that I remember. But, what do I know? I programmed similar Hot AC/Top 40 stations that
were mostly top 1/2 in the markets over the years. That success was due to one incredible radio station that jammed
every car radio on Front Beach Road --- need I say it wasn't Island???

Back to attackpoodle list of reality vs. the above fantasy. "I remember when radio was important." So much for bein' 25
still.

 

[redneckriviera]

Yeah, I'm managing (and ultimately programming) one of those killer Hot ACs. In the Fall 06 book it took #1 in Persons 12+, 12-24, 18-24, 18-34, 18-49, 25-54 and 35-64... and anything wearing a skirt! Nothing like it at PCB... but two pop/CHRs fighting to see which one starves to death first. Ain't radio great?

 

[panhandler]

Yeah, I'm managing (and ultimately programming) one of those killer Hot ACs. In the Fall 06 book it took #1 in Persons 12+, 12-24, 18-24, 18-34, 18-49, 25-54 and 35-64... and anything wearing a skirt! Nothing like it at PCB... but two pop/CHRs fighting to see which one starves to death first. Ain't radio great?

Strong Hot AC's are few and far between. I believe KCIX/Boise is No. 1 - but I don't know of many others. For the most part, the format has taken a major hit over the last few years - eaten up by much more compelling Adult Hits stations.

And, Redneck, is there an Adult Hits station or a GOOD Mainstream Top 40 in your market?

 

[Tibbs4]

Panhandler, that brings up a great point and question, although this isn't exactly the post probably to say it...BUT
the issue I think is there is not a real term for the format RNR and I may be thinking would work on PCB. Hot AC is
the closest term to the format out there today...however:

Why is it that there is not a 24-45 female leaning "Hit-based Hot AC Flashback station" that works? I am specifically referring
to a station that is hip (but not hop) user friendly that remembers the great music of the 80 through today without
boring the 24 year old to death with Billy Joel, Donna Summer and Rupert Holmes? It could be a female version, indirectly,
of Adult Hits. So you get upbeat, bright hits of the 80's thru now and yet don't get bored with the same 20-30 year old
250 dreadfully slow AC songs. I feel the demo could support it because, the older we all get nowdays, the more we grew up on Top 40
hits and rock than what our moms liked. Yet, AC still plays "what our moms like" yet they are sadly out of the demographic
agencies buy time for. See the gap? I don't think its been tried that way. #1 WJXA is AC in Nashville with a playlist that
updates infrequently and I AM SHOCKED that it hasn't had to be as listeners add birthdays. But there is going to be a
gap there soon. Sunny's always had great numbers in PC. Wouldn't make sense that there be a station just a bit younger
and edgier that women could punch up when they get tired of those "tried and true" soft AC's? The gap between AC
and CHR is huge and AAA is to fragmented. There's a trillion dollar gap that hasn't been filled. No pun intended. Look
at what us 40 year old men have to listen to: Classic Hits, Jack (AH), Classic Rock, Sports, Talk and maybe AAA or CHR.
Women: AC, Classic Hits, CHR, maybe Talk or AAA and certain Classic Rock songs. It's still a medium decided by a bunch
of 40+ year old men and yet what's the most profitable target??? Okay, I am tired. Nap time. Yawn!

And, as for me thinking of trashing PFM for a more Hot AC format, really it makes no sense. Double 00 needs to keep Island
at bay. But, they could flip the country station to this format and it might be a nice, profitable approach to team up with their
now floundering Jazz station. And creat a couple of 4.0-6.0 to get in the game. I'd rather share Sunny's numbers than
WPAP's anyday in that market. Oh well, dreaming...