past radio predictions

[firepoint525]

Can any of you think of any past radio predictions that never really came to pass? The one that I most remember was the one that predicted that instead of playing multiple artists, radio stations would only play one artist. There would supposedly be a station for all Elvis, a station for all Beatles, etc. There may be isolated instances of such stations coming into being, but I can't help but think that such a station would be very one-dimensional.

Radio is often very single-dimensional now, but not in the way that we had expected it to be.

 

[LKellerIII]

I remember hearing about an All Elvis station maybe 20 years ago - on a low power AM station - it only lasted a few months, and I don't think the owners really expected it to last. They did it to get a ratings bump - probably as much from the publicity as anything else.

One radio prediction from about a quarter century ago that did not come to pass: "AM Stereo will save music formats on AM stations."

Not only did AM stereo not save music on AM, it never really got going at all. I remember being skeptical at the time. Stereo or not, the sound quality of AM could never match FM

 

[Goat Rodeo Cowboy]

Stereo or not, the sound quality of AM could never match FM

Actually, that is debateable. There are theoretical reasons why FM should sound better. The theory assumes listeners have quality receivers designed to strip all the static and other noise off the FM signal. The average FM receiver today is such a piece of trash it does not come close to Mr. Armstrong's promises for FM.

Because corporate America has lobbied congress to push the FCC to write rules that allow more and more and more stations on the air, today's AM stations are required to "dumb down" their audio bandwidth so the over-crowded stations do less harm to each other. 50 years ago there were some AM stations putting out sound quality we can only dream of today on any channel, any media.

 

[LKellerIII]

"Actually, that is debateable. There are theoretical reasons why FM should sound better. The theory assumes listeners have quality receivers designed to strip all the static and other noise off the FM signal. The average FM receiver today is such a piece of trash it does not come close to Mr. Armstrong's promises for FM."

I have to admit I'm totally ignorant in regard to the technical end of the debate. But I know what my ears tell me, and they tell me that the fidelity on FM clearly is superior, and was superior 40 years ago.

My father bought a very expensive monaural hi-fi in the early 50s...imagine 2 banks of vacuum tubes, a huge turntable, an AM/FM tuner, and one enormous speaker. They were classical music lovers, and would tune in LA's classical station (KFAC) on FM when we were at home. The sound was clearly superior to KFAC-AM, which they would play in the car. I also remember the clear difference in sound quality in the late 60s between the Top 40 stations, and the first rock FM stations.

 

[Basnya]

I recall the AM stereo of the mid 1980s... It sounded pretty good really. Certainly not up to FM quality but a LOT better than I ever thought AM could sound. Sad that it never really caught on. I seem to remember the problem was one of competing formats for AM stereo, much like the VHS vs. Beta, or more recently HD -DVD vs Blu-Ray. A shame really. The few stations in my area that were AM stereo really sounded good.

 

[rickradio]

I think AM stereo never caught on because the FCC took so damned long to pick a system and set the standard. You had 4 different systems, each of which are incompatible with the others. Owners understandably didn't want to invest in a system not knowing if it was going to be obsolete soon should the FCC pick one of the other systems, which eventually happened because some stations did anyway (KSFO was Kahn), and wound up scrapping them. KNX, KFRC, KJOY and others were in stereo, although I don't know which system each used. The FCC eventually decided (late 80s, I think) that Motorola's C-Quam system would be the standard, but it wound up being too little, too late. Even now, several years after a standard was set, AM stereo receivers are about as common as bikinis at a ski resort. I went into a Circuit City a month or two ago, and asked one of the guys there about their selection of AM stereo receivers, and he looked at me as though I had 3 heads (they had none, not even among the car stereos).

If a standard had been set back when music on AM still had a foothold, manufacturers would've had time to get to work on building receivers and getting them onto the market, and I think things would have been a lot different.

 

[RicoGregg]

I think AM stereo never caught on because the FCC took so damned long to pick a system and set the standard.

-jump-

If a standard had been set back when music on AM still had a foothold, manufacturers would've had time to get to work on building receivers and getting them onto the market, and I think things would have been a lot different.

Couldn't agree with you more. The Commission totally dropped the ball on AM stereo.

 

[amfmsw]

There was talk in the early '70's that the FCC would nabdate all receiver include FM. Similar to the 1964 mandate that all TV's include UHF tuners. The marketplace settled that.

 

[FreddyE1977]

The most obvious one is the statement around 1960 that radio was "dead".
(obviously it had a few more good years left in it)

The prediction that all-comedy stations (stand up routines, old album cuts by
Bob Newhart, Bill Cosby, etc.) would sweep the country. Was tried in a few
places and bombed.

Predictions that all-Business News formats would likewise be a success.

Predictions that politically oriented talk radio would be a short-lived phenomenon.

Predictions in the 1970's that there would be an increasing number of jobs in
radio in the future.

Predictions that there would be plenty of low power FM licenses available for
colleges, high schools and community organizations.

Predictions that major sports franchises would keep the largest AM in their market
as a flagship station, since sports fans would never go looking for the game on FM.

Predictions that 50KW blowtorch AM stations in major markets would never
carry medical infomercials or Tradio.

Predictions that 50KW blowtorch AM stations in major markets that run infomercials
and Tradio will be taken off the air or scaled back to 1KW in the name of "going
green" (okay....give that one some time.....)

One infamous TV prediction also comes to mind, the prediction that daytime
soap operas would contain "full frontal nudity" within five years. I first heard that
predicted in 1983. Have been checking every five years since. We're still waiting.

 

[amfmsw]

Rick...the new HD tuners, like the Sangean, all include AM C-Quam stereo. The salesperson just didn't know enought to tell you.

fred...there is one financial station that is wildly succeful, WBBR 1130 NYC. Bloomberg Business Radio. It's owned by the mayor. But of course, it's in the one of the world's financial capitols.

 

[trusty]

One infamous prediction also comes to mind, the prediction that daytime-only radio would contain "full frontal nudity" within five years. Even though I've been checking every five years since, it has never really caught on, except for the occasional "Hey, I'm Margie, and all I have on is W---...". We're still waiting. ;D

 

[Jody-Thornton]

Rick...the new HD tuners, like the Sangean, all include AM C-Quam stereo. The salesperson just didn't know enought to tell you.

The problem now is though that a lot of AM stations have turned off their stereo generators. Here in Southern Ontario, music was still strong on AM up until the early 1990s (because our federal commission - the CRTC mandated hit to non-hit ratios for FM, so you could only be on AM if you wanted to play all hits all day. That is gone now.) We had no less than fifteen AM stations in stereo in 1990. None of those are in stereo today. The closest AM Stereo signals are in Chatham, Ontario and in Ottawa. Those are both out of my range.

Cheers,
Jody Thornton
(Hamilton, Ontario)

 

[Oldbones]

Rick...the new HD tuners, like the Sangean, all include AM C-Quam stereo. The salesperson just didn't know enought to tell you.

The problem now is though that a lot of AM stations have turned off their stereo generators.

Another problem is that, although they have C-QUAM stereo, it's narrowband and sounds awful. The AM sections are also deaf as a post.

 

[Eli Polonsky]

Rick...the new HD tuners, like the Sangean, all include AM C-Quam stereo. The salesperson just didn't know enought to tell you.

The problem now is though that a lot of AM stations have turned off their stereo generators.

Another problem is that, although they have C-QUAM stereo, it's narrowband and sounds awful. The AM sections are also deaf as a post.

Yes, I have a mid-'80s Sony wideband AM stereo receiver, and the one remaining AM stereo station in the Boston area, WJIB 740 (Cambridge, MA) sounds excellent on it. Almost as good as FM.

I also have a Sangean HD receiver, and WJIB sounds horrible on it. There's stereo separation, but its narrowband rolloff on analog AM is so severe that it sounds like it's in the mud. The audio quality is as bad as any of today's typical narrowband AM mono receivers.

 

[dustintv]

Did anything David Sarnoff predict come true?

 

[Don62]

I think AM stereo never caught on because the FCC took so damned long to pick a system and set the standard.

-jump-

If a standard had been set back when music on AM still had a foothold, manufacturers would've had time to get to work on building receivers and getting them onto the market, and I think things would have been a lot different.

Couldn't agree with you more. The Commission totally dropped the ball on AM stereo.

The FCC could have mandated an AM stereo standard early on, just as it - in the interests of preserving the existing broadcasters' financial interests - preserved the VHF band instead of mandating an all-UHF TV band, as had been suggested.

An "all UHF" band would have been more practical, giving an equal footing to all broadcasters ( as opposed to allowing one VHF to dominate in markets that had only one commercial VHF and 1-2 other UHFs).

Had the FCC moved that way, we could have had 4-7 networks, not the 2.5 we had during the 60s (ABC wasn't on full-time, so it was not considered a full network).

The FCC sure moves at warp speed whenever its Masters want to loosen ownership restrictions. But try to do anything to help the viewers or listeners, and the FCC drags its feet.

 

[amfmsw]

Eli, I just read a story on the new Omnia in RW. It said it had four band processing and all kinds of wonderful evolvements. It only costs XX$.

After your post, I restate, why bother. Keep you 1980's CRL running. They'll run forever. If the caps change the rolloff, who cares. No one can hear the difference with a GM 3Kc radio. The latest Optimod AM? Same. Save you money and hire a part-time jock for the summer and teach him the skills to be a broadcaster. Give back to the industry that you loved.

Rob, Frank... all respect...but digital does NOT work on AM, PLEASE, get the NRSC to set a standard for receivers and broadcasters...a decent, analog standard, and wider than 9Kc. Let AM do what it does best, analog. It is heartbreaking what has been forced on independent AM broadcasters. If it's perfectly acceptable to let HD splatter 20 Kc above and below, what's wrong with a dectent attempt at hi-fi AM, even if it is only speech.

I invite each of you to drive the Schuylkill Expressway through Philadelphia, and see what a disaster HD has made of the dial. Drive it, and defend the mess that has been made.

 

[nightfly61]

That A.M radio would be a thing of the past by 2000.