People Meters

[soundbite]

Let's chew on this, eh?

So, if the people meters replaced books today, what kind of list would the ratings look like, or do you think we'll see not much change?

 

[little1]

Supposedly the big winners with PPM are rock stations, talk stations and sports. One of the biggest losers is the fallback AC/office music station.

So Edge, Bone, Lonestar(maybe) could be helped. Any/all of the talk stations and ESPn and KTCK.
(and BTW- apparently the latest out of Philly is that the share for Eagles games there is CRAZY high. The arbitrons don't reflect it, but the PPM shows that something like 50% of anybody listening to the radio is listening to the eagles game. That's an INSANE number, but arbitron swears it's not a fluke, it's consistint week in and week out)

The loser are the 'listen at work' stations- here, probably KVIL, Mix, etc. Not only are they oversampled already, (women more likely to keep a diary) but seems like the diary and real listening don't actually match up- In other words, Little Suzy secretary writes in her diary that she listens to Mix all day. But actual PPM data shows she's in a meeting, out to lunch, etc, and not listening near as much as the diary claims...

 

[davideduardo]

One of the biggest losers is the fallback AC/office music station.

That is not true. The big winners in Philly, Houston and NY are the AC stations.

The loser are the 'listen at work' stations- here, probably KVIL, Mix, etc.

They will go up, and considerably.

Not only are they oversampled already, (women more likely to keep a diary) but seems like the diary and real listening don't actually match up- In other words, Little Suzy secretary writes in her diary that she listens to Mix all day. But actual PPM data shows she's in a meeting, out to lunch, etc, and not listening near as much as the diary claims...

The PPM picks up listening that would not be included in the diary, because it is "hearing" of a station someone else put on, or one the "hearer" did not think of as having been personally tuned in.

 

[MusicJunky]

Stations will gain in reach and lose in TSL. I dont see how Talk will gain in reach in a major way. Philly is a different market with football than Dallas for now. AC/office listening will jump in reach. Country and Spanish stations will have problems.

 

[little1]

I'll edit out some of teh article so notto getthe mod's panties in a wad about copyrighted material, but I'll leave the points I was trying to make..

New way to count listeners shakes up radio
By SARAH MCBRIDE
The Wall Street Journal

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB118903798218018792.html

Philadelphia radio listeners started hearing less Marc Anthony and more Modest Mouse in May, when WRFF 104.5 flipped to alternative rock from a Spanish-language format called Rumba. The Clear Channel Communications Inc. station made the change after a new electronic method of measuring radio audiences showed rock music is more popular in Philadelphia than older, diary-based measurements had indicated.
(snip)
. The results from the first two markets indicate that people flip among stations more frequently than they say, that men listen to significantly more radio than women and that employed people listen a lot more than people who don't work. While the diary system pointed to some of these findings, it typically missed how broad they are.

In the markets that have switched to the electronic ratings, rock and classic rock rank higher than before, while hip-hop and other urban music generally don't stack up as well. Perhaps most important, radio stations typically pull in a bigger audience than they thought, but that audience spends less time listening to them.
(snip)
The company also says people who record in diaries tend to report their habitual behavior — listing shows they often listen to, for example — rather than their actual behavior. Thus, a diary participant who said he or she listened to Rush Limbaugh every day might now be found by the People Meter to change stations more than the diary showed.
(snip)
Some events may end up commanding considerably higher rates than they do now. For example, while the diary system showed that CBS Corp.'s WPHT 1210 AM won more listeners during baseball season when it aired Phillies games, it seems to have underreported the spike. The diaries showed the station had an average of 412,300 weekly listeners during baseball season; the People Meter shows the number is closer to 744,500. The meter also shows a level of detail the diaries couldn't match, such as the fact that daytime games get about 60,000 more radio listeners than nighttime ones, when fans typically prefer to watch them on television.
(snip)

Okay so let's see, winners are rock stations, backed up by the WSJ.
Sports did better than reported, backed up by the WSJ.
"Male stations" (rock, talk,sports) do better, backed up by WSJ (Kinda- says men listen more than women, but Arbitron admits that they have always had a harder time getting male diary keepers, doesn't it stand to reason that if we start getting more proportional reporting, male stations will do better?)

And DE- you proved my point with the last example- if she is 'hearing' a station that she wouldn't think to include in her diary (that someone else put on) that's BAD for the station that she's listing as having listened to all day, right?


[Link added as a courtesy by Radio Info]

 

[MusicJunky]

Little1, AC stations gained millions in CUME. "Perhaps most important, radio stations typically pull in a bigger audience than they thought, but that audience spends less time listening to them." Reach will increase and TSL will be reduced.

The Diaries represented more habitual behavior. "Thus, a diary participant who said he or she listened to Rush Limbaugh every day might now be found by the People Meter to change stations more than the diary showed." TSL was overshot in the diaries for talk. I dont know how reach will drastically increase, either.

 

[little1]

Right and if cume goes up, but TSL goes down, you're ratings stay flat.

And if you're ratings stay flat, while others go up, because they're listening is now actually be reflected as reality instead of "perceived' listening, you're the loser...

 

[MusicJunky]

Little1, cume goes up in AC stations, not talk. Thus, talk would rely on TSL to increase. Only the TSL that was recorded in diary reflected habits. In other words, it was not as strong as the PPM suggested. I predict most talk will go down in TSL. Ticket might have a shot to gain reach, though, with their Cowboys and Mavericks broadcasts. However, I dont think it would be in the same magnitude as Philly.

 

[davideduardo]

Okay so let's see, winners are rock stations, backed up by the WSJ.

The WSJ only gets cume numbers. Advertisers buy AQH numbers, expressed as share, rating or persons.

AC and rock stations both do, on the average, better. So does oldies / classic hits, which is the biggest winner.

Sports did better than reported, backed up by the WSJ.

What we have are three PPM markets, with NY only one month into the process, and an undersample in 18-34 of 40%. The NY data is less than trustworth, as Bob Niel of Cox has said, too.

In Houston, no sports station moved significantly in share. In NY, we have a single month, with a 0.8 share increase at the time of the baseball playoffs. In Philly, you have only moderate increases for WIP, so there is no eveidence that sports is that much favored by the PPM.

Male stations" (rock, talk,sports) do better, backed up by WSJ (Kinda- says men listen more than women, but Arbitron admits that they have always had a harder time getting male diary keepers, doesn't it stand to reason that if we start getting more proportional reporting, male stations will do better?)

You are judging cume numbers from PPM against share numbers previously released for the diary survey.

The results published for the non-accredited NY PPM survey are one hundred percent proportional, but since the sample in some demos is way off, the proportionality is achieved by weighting which in a panel study should not be needed. The panel is not proportional at all, but the reportiing is 100% proportional.

Arbitron does not have a male diarykeeper problem. They havr an 18-24 male diarykeeper recruiting problem, which they solve by over recruiting and weighting. This is not the problem that exists with the PPM in NY, where they simply don't have enough panelists and good carriege rates... and why neither Philly nor NY are MRC accredited.

And DE- you proved my point with the last example- if she is 'hearing' a station that she wouldn't think to include in her diary (that someone else put on) that's BAD for the station that she's listing as having listened to all day, right?

No, that is good for the station... in the case of AC stations used in the workplace, it gives huge TSL and increases cume a lot.

Remember, in the PPM, total radio AQH listening is off about 40 percent in the three markets.... the average panelist listens for less than 12 hours a week vs. 18 to 20 hours a week in the diary system. Everyone's AQH persons is off, and a lot. It really is not important that cumes are up, since the cime gains are exactly why the TSL has fallen by at least 50% for most stations... more for many.... its all the random cuming of 5 minutes to 30 minutes that adds the big cume increases, but does nothing but drag down the AQH persons.

 

[bucwhyl]

Urbans would take the biggest hit.

 

[Steve Eberhart]

I think the results that are coming back are quite interesting. There's a lot of unhappy broadcasters out there right now because much of the long standing credible philosophies about listening habits are being reduced to gibberish! Consultants and programmers need to adapt to this concept immediately.

When you think about it, at least half, (and certainly in some instances even more), of the effort of broadcasting is concentrated on attempting to make people recall listening vs. presenting a product actually worthy of listening to. This is changing the game entirely. The only thing that matters now is what they are truly hearing instead of what they are being told they are hearing or what they think they are hearing.

I think the PPM is good for radio. It will make broadcasters offer a better and more compelling product vs. play this silly game of forced recall which is essentially all it has become of late. Those were the rules of the trade heretofore, but as Dylan said, ...these times, they are a changin'....

 

[VERITAS DE VOCE]

I think the PPM is good for radio. It will make broadcasters offer a better and more compelling product vs. play this silly game of forced recall which is essentially all it has become of late. Those were the rules of the trade heretofore, but as Dylan said, ...these times, they are a changin'....

Or even the Byrds (notwithstanding this sentiment's original author, King Solomon) ..."to every season, turn, turn, turn"...

The times are changing indeed. And as much as some of us don't want to admit, PPM is rushing in fast. AQH and CUME will always be there, but CONsultants and PDs care what "we" think... hence, PPM revolution.