PPM Data

[TakeItFromMe]

The arbitron cowboys made the Seattle rounds with some interesting data Thanks to recent adjustments the formats getting the biggest bang from PPM have changed. News, Talk (on AM or FM doesn't seem to matter) Country and Sports are your big winners now
Slipping down the meter toilet are Smooth Jazz, AC, Rhythmic CHR, HOT/AC and Urban. Hispanic is making a big ole comeback.
Guess that means by by cowpie to KWJZ, WARM or STAR, KISS OR KUBE and MOVIN. Hello big numbers to KOMO, KIRO, WOLF And COMPASS. KJR-AM and KIRO-AM should be big ole ratings cowboys as well 8)

I thought them early returns with poor samples were a bit ugly. The above makes a whole lot more sense. 8)

 

[TVradioguru]

Guess that means by by cowpie to KWJZ, WARM or STAR, KISS OR KUBE and MOVIN. Hello big numbers to KOMO, KIRO, WOLF And COMPASS. KJR-AM and KIRO-AM should be big ole ratings cowboys as well 8)

I thought them early returns with poor samples were a bit ugly. The above makes a whole lot more sense. 8)

Makes sense? To whom? And yet in your following post, you claim the extraps show Star as doing well. So what is it, your bizarre predictions about who will win or lose in the PPM, or the actual numbers that you claim in following posts.

 

[Bongwater]

Guess that means by by cowpie to KWJZ, WARM......

Bye Bye KRWM?

Santa Claus will hear of this......

 

[djdan]

Anyone who tries to predict how the PPM will do is crazy. Arbitron is changing its methodology as it goes along and only Houston is accredited at this point, so expect things to change in a big way. We are already seeing the effect of sampling with the turnaround in the hispanic demo. Anyone who tries to predict what will happen in Seattle is crazy.

The current extrap bears no impact on the PPM. TIFM says Star will die in the PPM, the fact that they did well in the current diary has no relevance on the PPM. Still his predictions are just wild guesses. The one big takeaway in the last six months is the strength of the KIRO AM/FM combo. What happens when it goes to FM only? Spoken word FM stations are dying. News FM stations have a mixed history. What does work: AM/FM combos. KCBS in SF is the best example. It rocketed to number one, but only as a combo. As an FM alone it is mid-level. As an AM-alone it is mid level. Combo is the key. KIRO is about to split the combo so who really knows what will happen. Right now they are number one, but in a month when the AM goes sports?

 

[raydioheadfm]

DjDan...a little SF insight. KCBS' strength comes from the AM...they are only about 3 months into a simulcast as of the January PPM monthly. In Dec, prior the combo being reported as one number, KCBS was a top 5 12+ AM and top 8 25-54....adding the FM to the AM, which contributes anywhere between a .5 and 1.5 depending on demo, is enough to make it number one, as well as #1 commercial station 25-54 (NPR does very well in SF...as it will likely in Seattle PPM). Perhaps a better example is the FM only WTOP in Washington, also all news. It is number one, far and away, 12+ and 25-54...as a stand alone FM. (It dropped the AM 3 years ago)

Not sure where TIFM's info on what formats "work" in PPM comes from, but it's not what I've seen at any ARB meeting about PPM I've been at in any market recently. While there are some "generalities" no format is exactly the same in each market. For example CHR is strong in PPM, NY, LA, Detroit, Dallas, Atlanta & DC all have CHR in the top 5...even the top2! Yet in Chicago and Houston, where there are head to head CHR battles, the CHR's are clumped in mid-pack. There are 2 AC's in the top 6 in SF, 1 AC and 2 Urban AC's in the top 10 in NY and the list continues to be varied in each of the current PPM markets. DjDan, you are right, to try and predict Seattle PPM is crazy...especially since things will be very tight. Kiss should do well, as should Star. The country battle will continue. KCMS should do well in PPM, if Houston & Dallas are indicators. KIRO should also continue to do well but clearly won't have the same numbers as a stand alone FM and it will be interesting to see if KOMO shows stronger in PPM as it's diary numbers have continued to slide. KIRO's AM will gain instant credibility with Mariners.

 

[djdan]

Yes! Someone else on this board that can see numbers from around the country, as we do in the rep business and interpret the results. KCBS was mid-pak 25-54, but the extra 1.5 from the simulcast shot it to number one. KIRO is a bit different right now getting about equal shares from the last four trends from the AM and FM. (AM owned it except for a big November for the FM). The station theoretically will drop to mid-pak. The impact on KOMO seems dramatic with five straight down trends. The big surprise is the strength of KTTH, now the solid number two spoken word station in Seattle, behind KIRO. KTTH is the number one AM in town. No doubt the recent Rush publicity will make it even stronger.

Looking at other markets for help makes no sense as raydiohead outlines. Let me explain a bit more: WTOP was number one as an AM and is number one as an FM in DC. It was number one in the diary and number one in the PPM, however Washington DC is a news town and the station fits it perfectly. Kind of like Urban WVEE fits Atlanta and ROCK KQRS fits Minneapolis. The stations are part of the fabric of the town and have done well in diary and now PPM. Put WTOP in KC and it fails. Put WVEE in Seattle and it fails. Put KQRS in SF and it fails. Trying to look at other markets to predict PPM results makes little sense, especially with the methodology changing along the way too.

The wild card here is KIRO-AM. Heritage call letters, the Mariners on a bit of a pre-season roll and a big advertising campaign. It is possible a sports station could be number one in Seattle. If that happens it will impact a number of stations. At the top of the list are KJR-AM (the sports station) KOMO-AM (built with Mariner audience and already falling), KIRO-FM (shared base of support gone with the AM) KISW and KZOK (the place males go when not listening to sports) Many in the agency world anticipate KIRO-FM will win the PPM battle. Wouldn't it be surprising if KIRO-AM was the big winner? Truth is: No one has a clue.

 

[Radio-Schmoozer]

It's a big change and I agree, no one can predict the outcome. It'll be nice to have a more accurate reading of listnership. It's all on the people who wear the people meters. And of course the people. I hope we get an accurate sampling.

 

[raydioheadfm]

I'm sure DjDan would agree, not necessarily more accurate, just different. The logic behind it should mean it's more accurate, but with the travails we've seen ARB have in the initial PPM
markets, it's further affirmation, that when it comes to PPM, logic may not apply!!! The one thing we do know, it is picking up what people are "HEARING". Whether or not they are actually
"LISTENING" is a whole other can of worms. What I personally like about PPM, is that it shows the reach of radio. Cumes are much larger. And most of that cume is "light" listening. But it does show how much a part of people's lives radio really is. If stations are able to understand PPM and monetize it properly, then it will be a better tool for radio than the diarly.

 

[TakeItFromMe]

Cowboys come on :-\
PPM has to be better than people just guessing and sending in a diary. pleeaaassse.

Sure they ain't got it perfect, but it does show more listening and let's new stations have a chance. My only beef is the undersampling of monrings and oversampling of middays we heard about in the session this week :-[

no one wakes up and slaps on the meter so guess what mornings are still underreported

 

[swhyde1980]

Sure they ain't got it perfect, but it does show more listening and let's new stations have a chance. My only beef is the undersampling of monrings and oversampling of middays we heard about in the session this week :-[

My take on this, is that it would be interesting to see even some "rimshot" stations or "distant stations" getting entrance into local ratings with the PPM, or higher ratings if they are already there. At this point, I wouldn't be suprised if even KMCQ the way it's running currently, ended up getting into the ratings with the PPM (whoever can pick them up). Other stations like KNBQ (I think they have already made it into the Seattle ratings), or even KAFE, could start showing up as well in Seattle ratings, or even the Victoria, BC stations (all would be considered "distant" stations). Does the PPM have a system to "filter-out" out-of-market stations, even though they could be picked up very well in the Seattle market?

Even in San Diego, CA (still diary, not PPM yet), there are a few out-of-market stations from up north in Los Angeles, that have made their way into the ratings down there.

I can't help but think, that some stations, if popular enough, would set up "translator stations" or even move their primary transmitters, to serve 2 different markets, in order to "squeeze out" advertising revenue from 2 different areas, as a result of getting ratings from another nearby metropolitan area. I wouldn't know how something like that would be beneficial though. You can only sell so much advertising time within an 1-hour period, with having businesses advertised in a mix, between 2 different markets.

 

[AQH]

My take on this, is that it would be interesting to see even some "rimshot" stations or "distant stations" getting entrance into local ratings with the PPM, or higher ratings if they are already there. At this point, I wouldn't be suprised if even KMCQ the way it's running currently, ended up getting into the ratings with the PPM (whoever can pick them up). Other stations like KNBQ (I think they have already made it into the Seattle ratings), or even KAFE, could start showing up as well in Seattle ratings, or even the Victoria, BC stations (all would be considered "distant" stations). Does the PPM have a system to "filter-out" out-of-market stations, even though they could be picked up very well in the Seattle market?

Victoria wouldn't come in on Seattle ratings. They would not have the audio encoded.

I can't help but think, that some stations, if popular enough, would set up "translator stations" or even move their primary transmitters, to serve 2 different markets, in order to "squeeze out" advertising revenue from 2 different areas, as a result of getting ratings from another nearby metropolitan area. I wouldn't know how something like that would be beneficial though. You can only sell so much advertising time within an 1-hour period, with having businesses advertised in a mix, between 2 different markets.

The best move would be to say true to your area. If some rimshot signal tries to encroach into Seattle and take away revenue from the Seattle-licensed stations, the Seattle sales staffs will quickly and easily pigeon-hole you as an "out-of-towner." And with efforts concentrated in Seattle, you could very well affect local advertising dollars. A good idea on paper, put very risky to execute.

 

[djdan]

Agree with AQH on this. Out of market stations won't be encoded so they won't appear in the PPM book. Rimshots like KNBQ will be encoded provided arbitron approves and in other markets they have. Since PPM is cume centric these stations do worse than they did in the diary. There are some exceptions but for the most part this is the case.

The biggest reason not to translate out of market stations or operate rimshots. is there is zero revenue potential today. In case you hadn't noticed we are in a recession and radio may be one of the hardest hit industries with prices dropping 50% or more. Our rep firm lost a buy to a full market Seattle station with okay numbers at 35 dollars a spot 5-12 mid with 66% guaranteed 6a-7p. An out of town station or one of the partial market stations would have to sell for 50 cents a commercial to equal the CPP. Right now even great stations are cutting rate by 30-50% just to get on the buy. What is also happening is the good station in a cluster is dropping rate and then THROWING IN a weaker station in the cluster for FREE. So how does KMCQ compete against FREE? The whole situation is really tragic, except for advertisers who are getting deals that resemble the early 1990's pricing...or lower. Ouch.

 

[TVradioguru]

What is also happening is the good station in a cluster is dropping rate and then THROWING IN a weaker station in the cluster for FREE. So how does KMCQ compete against FREE? The whole situation is really tragic, except for advertisers who are getting deals that resemble the early 1990's pricing...or lower. Ouch.

The sad part about that scenario will turn out similar to what groups did with their radio web sites, eventually when things turn around advertisers will expect two-fer comps on other stations within a cluster. Giving away the farm just to get the buy becomes a desperate move that will blow up down the road long after that particular sales/management team is gone.

If I found out one of my GM's or LSM's were devaluing one of my expensive properties by giving away inventory on one station to make budget, those folks would be looking for new employment.