PPM Kills Format

[radioprofessor]

Miami became the 6th major market to get rid of their Smooth Jazz format due to anticipated poor performance in the PPM. With eleven markets in the winners and losers in the PPM are clear. Here is the data over all books all markets with PPM Currency and Pre-Currency in the 25-54 prime demo:

UP

Sports: up 30%
Hot Ac: up 25%
Classic Hits: up 15%
Country: up 15%
AC: up 10%

Down:

Smooth Jazz: down 25%
Urban AC: down 20%
Rhythmic CHR: down 15%
Hispanic: down 15%
Talk: down 15%
News: down 10%

The other parameter with the PPM is that only one station in a format wins. There is a clear Country winner, sports winner and the competing station in the market disappears. Makes you wonder what changes could be in store for Seattle? Which Country will win and which sports station will win? Who will be forced to change format? All of this in a year of economic uncertainty makes radio the most challenging since the emergence of FM in the late seventies recession changed the landscape of formats.

 

[djdan]

This year will be one of change. The analysis on ratings holds up on the revenue side as well, but is worse. The CPP for the PPM is so much higher that radio stations are seeing decreases in revenue even if they are doing well. Around the country it is shocking at the agency level to see how stations are diving on rate to keep business.

What is equally as shocking is to see the revenue collapse on some legendary stations as the PPM rolls out. The decline in ratings of Hispanic stations and the corresponding decline in revenue is catastrophic. AM stations like KGO in SF or KYW in Philadelphia are seeing 40-50% declines in revenue since the PPM arrived.They do well 6+, but collapse 25-54. Pre-currency on ABC in NY and LA, CBS, WTOP, WINS shows big drops in prime demo CPP, except morning drive. What is discouraging is that stations like KODA, The Killer B in Philly and KISS in LA are doing very well in the PPM in prime demos, yet thanks to the CPP variance are also experiencing some declines in revenue. It is not all PPM since the economy has diminished demand, but the point remains.

I was not around at the time AM fell apart and FM came on the scene in the late seventies and early eighties, but I imagine the impact was similar. What appears to be happening in the PPM is only one station gets real ratings in a format and certain formats are favored. Long-time AM powerhouse stations are left with older demos. I would bet the stations that benefit in Seattle will be KMPS, KZOK, KIRO-AM Sports, KRWM and KPLZ. One Seattle AM station will survive with 45+ demographics and one CHR will survive. Outside of that it is anyone's guess. The move by KIRO to sports makes real sense in light of the numbers you shared and KUBE purchasing KBKS also makes sense in order to combo sell to battle PPM. It will be a most unusual year, especially on the sales side.

 

[LDRADIO]

There are still major sampling and accuracy issues with the PPM. Take for example the Atlanta book that has stations in New York showing up because panelists took their meters with them on vacation. I wouldn't kill any format that was strong with quality demographics and effective for advertisers based soley on the PPM. It really means the sellers have to do a great job for their station and buyers have to keep an open mind about much more than numbers. More than ever advertisers want effective and measurable results and the people meter alone won't be delivering that. Especially when the top stations are only showing a 5 share and not double digits.

 

[Bongwater]

Miami became the 6th major market to get rid of their Smooth Jazz format due to anticipated poor performance in the PPM. With eleven markets in the winners and losers in the PPM are clear. Here is the data over all books all markets with PPM Currency and Pre-Currency in the 25-54 prime demo:

UP

Sports: up 30%
Hot Ac: up 25%
Classic Hits: up 15%
Country: up 15%
AC: up 10%

Down:

Smooth Jazz: down 25%
Urban AC: down 20%
Rhythmic CHR: down 15%
Hispanic: down 15%
Talk: down 15%
News: down 10%

The other parameter with the PPM is that only one station in a format wins. There is a clear Country winner, sports winner and the competing station in the market disappears. Makes you wonder what changes could be in store for Seattle? Which Country will win and which sports station will win? Who will be forced to change format? All of this in a year of economic uncertainty makes radio the most challenging since the emergence of FM in the late seventies recession changed the landscape of formats.

Seattle will probably be one the the last markets to drop Smooth Jazz, since it's been popular here long before it became a national craze. KZAM/KJZZ, CJAZ and KEZX were among the first stations anywhere to give early smooth jazz it's first leg up and they were are all right here in Puget Sound.

Rhythmic CHR has been dying for some time, KUBE will continue to sink.....

 

[WKomm]

djdan - As FM signal began dominating, it was pretty easy to understand why. Didn't take an advanced degree. The infiltration of PPM measurement will be different in so far that it's very technical. I imagine many of the wonks I've run across in radio will be loving it. You know - the kind of guys who love nothing better than to sit in their parent's basement and work a keyboard until their fingers bleed.

But this time they will be harder to make fun of - because they seem to be in touch with radio today.

 

[vector77]

The other parameter with the PPM is that only one station in a format wins.

Professor, I defy you to post on this board without using the word "parameter." Or, your second choice -- at least define it.

Thank you.

 

[SeattleRadioPro]

The other parameter with the PPM is that only one station in a format wins.

Professor, I defy you to post on this board without using the word "parameter." Or, your second choice -- at least define it.

Thank you.

Hey - at least the good professor didn't use his other favorite crutch this time! You know the one..."in my humble opinion"

 

[CorporateSuit]

>>RadioProfessor:

I thought you stated that you weren't going to be posting here anymore because we weren't worth more than the dirt beneath your feet?

 

[jdweaver]

Here's the killer. Stations pay big multiples of their previous Arbitron bills for PPM data only to see their ratings drop. Arbitron puts a hammer on the point by running trade ads extoling radio media buyers to buy 70 points where they used to buy 100 points . So the ratings go down, the rates go down and now Arbitron says buyers can use LESS points for the same reach because the research is more accurate. Perfect. Perfect storm.

Hey - how about this idea? Let's go back to selling ideas, traffic builders, promotions and successful events and completely bag PPM. But then we'd have to go back to making calls and hitting the street...

 

[Bongwater]

Format Kills PPM

Here's the killer. Stations pay big multiples of their previous Arbitron bills for PPM data only to see their ratings drop. Arbitron puts a hammer on the point by running trade ads extoling radio media buyers to buy 70 points where they used to buy 100 points . So the ratings go down, the rates go down and now Arbitron says buyers can use LESS points for the same reach because the research is more accurate. Perfect. Perfect storm.

Hey - how about this idea? Let's go back to selling ideas, traffic builders, promotions and successful events and completely bag PPM. But then we'd have to go back to making calls and hitting the street...

GREAT idea. But like you say, you gotta work for it and anything that requires work requires paying the workers to do it. Radio is supposed to do that anyway. But the biz is stuck in this mind set of MORE! MORE! MORE! for LESS! LESS! LESS!, not realizing there IS a limit to that and sooner or later, it costs money to make money.

The Arbitron system, book or PPM is full of bugs and can't entirely be trusted. One Providence, R.I. talk show host used PPM to inflate his ratings, another PPM user went on vacation to New York and those stations he listened to there wound up in the Atlanta ratings ("!")

Thankfully, new ratings systems are popping up that may be a little more accurate, but NOTHING beats sheer visibility for a station to succeed......

 

[radioprofessor]

I have not posted here much because I moved, not because you are dirt. This discussion has been on a variety of consultant blogs and on other boards here on this site as well. I spilled it over to this board since I was interested in opinions, humble or not, to the data. Some of the responses were thought out and others attacks which is common in this parameter.

The term parameter, which originates in mathematics, has a number of specific meanings. Perhaps because of its ring of technical authority, it has been used more generally in recent years to refer to any factor that determines a range of variations and especially to a factor that restricts what can result from a process or policy. It radio can refer to variations within formats, populations or statistics.

That is the definition of parameter, in my humble opinion. (Joke)

 

[TVradioguru]

Rhythmic CHR has been dying for some time, KUBE will continue to sink.....

Rythmic CHR dying for quite some time?? Really! I believe you've made that, or similar statements before Bong, but clearly you don't know what you're talking about. But being the ever curious one; what are you basing your obviously biased statement on? Is it that you don't care for that particular type of music and are wishing for its demise, or are you involved in some form of nationwide research that refutes the established research groups?

Regarding your statement about some early and existing "smooth jazz" stations; you seem to miss the mark there too. Having been in the area at the time, KZAM was a money loser by todays standards, with a small albeit loyal audience. The key word here is small. You see Bong, the idea in commercial radio is to attract many listeners within a target demographic which then translates advertisers wanting to advertise on said station, ergo making the owner of said station money. If one plotted the consistency book-to-book of "smooth jazz" in any market it played, one would see it looks like an aggressive saw tooth pattern, with two books up followed by two books down, eventually moving toward where it is today having reached bottom and beginning to dig.

To programmers, the SJ format was designed to replace the dead easy listening format for the elevator and dentist office crowd. The problem is even with a high TSL, listeners of a station all day didn't put it down in their ratings diary because it truly was unidentifiable background noise.

Okay I know that some on this board will chastise me for calling you out on your sweeping generalizations, but I would expect someone to call me out if I said something as ridiculous as Urban CHR is dying.

 

[mightymoose]

For the life of me I fail to understand why owners & managers are pulling the plug on Smooth Jazz. In an era when so many stations music libraries overlap to some extent SJ offers a relativley unique playlist. Yes you may some R & B artists mixed into SJ playlists form time to time? But for the most part artists you hear on your neighborhood Smooth Jazz station are not heard elsewhere. Someone said it was unidentifiable noise. If it is unidentifiable then the station is doing a piss poor job of marketing, promotion or library management and that can be fixed.

Smooth Jazz artists tour regularly, their concerts sell well. If you consider SJ as a niche format with a fair amount of exclusive cume then wouldn’t advertisers want that audience? The listeners aren't generally trailer trash type with no money. So what's wrong with Smoth Jazz??

 

[TVradioguru]

For the life of me I fail to understand why owners & managers are pulling the plug on Smooth Jazz. In an era when so many stations music libraries overlap to some extent SJ offers a relativley unique playlist. Yes you may some R & B artists mixed into SJ playlists form time to time? But for the most part artists you hear on your neighborhood Smooth Jazz station are not heard elsewhere. Someone said it was unidentifiable noise. If it is unidentifiable then the station is doing a piss poor job of marketing, promotion or library management and that can be fixed.

Smooth Jazz artists tour regularly, their concerts sell well. If you consider SJ as a niche format with a fair amount of exclusive cume then wouldn’t advertisers want that audience? The listeners aren't generally trailer trash type with no money. So what's wrong with Smoth Jazz??

I believe the bottom-line is there aren't enough loyal smooth jazz listeners, at least those willing to support a larger market station by filling out a rating diary nor frequenting the advertisers. Again, SJ was intended as a TSL station for the wine-and-cheese crowd, or dentist office. The problem is that audience isn't inclined toward supporting these stations.

Being a lover of the actual Jazz genre, I personally find it offensive that some of the music played on these stations are labeled as Jazz. The Doobie Bros. Jazz?? John Tesh Jazz? Steely Dan Jazz?? Uh...No, I don't think so.

 

[semoochie]

It's now called Smooth AC.

 

[mightymoose]

Smooth AC eh? Okay, whatever. And yes The Doobies, and John Tesh are a LONG ways from Billie Holiday or Count Basie or Monk, etc.

 

[AQH]

Rhythmic CHR has been dying for some time, KUBE will continue to sink.....

Rythmic CHR dying for quite some time?? Really! I believe you've made that, or similar statements before Bong, but clearly you don't know what you're talking about. But being the ever curious one; what are you basing your obviously biased statement on? Is it that you don't care for that particular type of music and are wishing for its demise, or are you involved in some form of nationwide research that refutes the established research groups?

Regarding your statement about some early and existing "smooth jazz" stations; you seem to miss the mark there too. Having been in the area at the time, KZAM was a money loser by todays standards, with a small albeit loyal audience. The key word here is small. You see Bong, the idea in commercial radio is to attract many listeners within a target demographic which then translates advertisers wanting to advertise on said station, ergo making the owner of said station money. If one plotted the consistency book-to-book of "smooth jazz" in any market it played, one would see it looks like an aggressive saw tooth pattern, with two books up followed by two books down, eventually moving toward where it is today having reached bottom and beginning to dig.

To programmers, the SJ format was designed to replace the dead easy listening format for the elevator and dentist office crowd. The problem is even with a high TSL, listeners of a station all day didn't put it down in their ratings diary because it truly was unidentifiable background noise.

Okay I know that some on this board will chastise me for calling you out on your sweeping generalizations, but I would expect someone to call me out if I said something as ridiculous as Urban CHR is dying.

Judging by his non-response when he was asked to elaborate in this thread, http://boards.radio-info.com/smf/index.php/topic,100445.msg785176.html#msg785176, he'll just let it go.

 

[TVradioguru]

Indeed.. I didn't expect an educated response from Sir Bong, because you can't prove a negative.

Don't get me wrong, everyone is welcome to their opinion and personal tastes, it's what makes America great. If McBongster doesn't like Urban CHR for whatever reason, then simply stating one isn't a fan of the genre will suffice. Making statements with nothing to back it up other than Skagit County grocery store conversation doesn't qualify as valid research or data.

 

[Fornax]

Re: Format Kills PPM

The Arbitron system, book or PPM is full of bugs and can't entirely be trusted. One Providence, R.I. talk show host used PPM to inflate his ratings, another PPM user went on vacation to New York and those stations he listened to there wound up in the Atlanta ratings ("!")

No methodology is perfect. But the facts are wrong here. The RI talk show host's wife used falsified diaries in the attempt to inflate his ratings, not PPM data. Providence is not a PPM market.

As for vacation, an Arbitron panel relations specialists coach the panelists to leave the PPM in the dock. Arbitron is also testing travel chargers that will allow panelists to take their PPM devices with them. Traditional market boundaries may become less significant if better (unique) content is offered on Internet streams. (And yes, a station's Internet stream is encoded seperately from the broadcast signal.)

 

[AQH]

Re: Format Kills PPM

The Arbitron system, book or PPM is full of bugs and can't entirely be trusted. One Providence, R.I. talk show host used PPM to inflate his ratings, another PPM user went on vacation to New York and those stations he listened to there wound up in the Atlanta ratings ("!")

No methodology is perfect. But the facts are wrong here. The RI talk show host's wife used falsified diaries in the attempt to inflate his ratings, not PPM data. Providence is not a PPM market.

I'm SHOCKED the facts were wrong. :