PPM on KCMQ

[jdweaver]

KCMQ has been on the air long enough that they should be showing, if only in the sub-one share pile at the bottom of the ranker. So my assumption is that they are not encoding because unrated stations are more valuable than rated ones...? Right? Anybody have any scoop?

 

[LITTLEBOYBLUE]

My understanding is they are not encoding...and likely for the reason you already mentioned (let people GUESS their share and it may likely be higher than actual).

In their case, though, I think they might benefit from PPM as they are very Jack-like in product and could show up well. But on the other hand, if you're not selling anything, no point in having proof of what kind of audience you have!

 

[FMSteve]

That's funny.....I was having this same exact conversation with someone else a few weeks ago on this subject. No, nobody thinks the station is encoding. If they were I would expect a 2.0 rating, based upon their great signal and format selected.

I guess if they encoded, then it would have to stand on it's own merits, for better or worse. I'm not sure how one calculate's value. Jackson would know. I think it's a product of yearly cashflow x a multiplier of 10-15, plus associated fixtures like the transmitter and processing. Somehow if we knew the 6am-7pm M-Sat AQH, Jackson could determine the revenue stream and figure it out.

Personally I feel that they should have some sort of revenue stream right now, encode, and get a local staff from another cluster to rep the station. But others on this board disagree.

I think the only thing that makes sense right now is....knowing KOMO has an option to buy 97.7 for 11 million.......is for Fisher to drop the 97.7 and make an offer to purchase 104.5 from First Broadcasting for 11 (or so) million. We know that First wanted a lot more but time is marching along and there is value in not waiting and cashing in. A bird in the hand (assumming KOMO is interested) is worth two in the bush. And right now it seems there's only one bird out there locally that wants a good signal and has the money allocated to do so.

 

[IndigoCoyote]

FMS, I agree with you on a lot of things you say here, but a 2.0? Wow-that would be astounding for a station with zero promotion, no personality, and a pretty awful sound. You are obviously more of an optimist about human awareness than I am. I would guess 0 or .1 if encoded. I would be shocked if 2% of the metro even knows they exist, much less ever tunes in.

The real question is whether they will ever pull a 2 fully programmed.

 

[Seattleradiodude]

I would expect a 2.0 rating, based upon their great signal and format selected.

I highly doubt that, horrible audio quality... crappy programming formatics. I would be surprized if it peaked .9

Somehow if we knew the 6am-7pm M-Sat AQH

Why 6am to 7pm? PPM is rated 6a - Midnight

I dont want to single out your post specifically, but it just doesn't make sense.

 

[notalent]

Anyone who would buy that station would not give a rip what the current format or ratings may be.

Every dime that First spends on programming or encoding is simply less profit when they do sell.

They are selling the license only, not a brand folks, get it?

 

[Seattleradiodude]

Every dime that First spends on programming or encoding is simply less profit when they do sell.

Very true, however it costs nothing to encode the signal with PPM. Arbitron issues the encoders and monitors to all stations at no cost, its the matter of a station subscribing to the ratings that costs money. So the very least you would assume they could hook up the encoder.

 

[radioguy123]

The station running commercial free might do a 1.5 to 2.0 12+ but it doesn't tell you much. Plus if it only got a 1 share commercial free, buyers would flee. Commercial free isn't much help to a potential buyer unless they are a non-profit, so why take the risk devaluing your signal by encoding? Encoding may be free, but you run the risk of buyers really seeing the signal as second rate.

The signal is strong in cars, but at 8000 watts it is not ever going to be an in-office station or in tunnels, or behind buildings. The signal is really pretty bad. Even 100,000 watt stations have troubles penetrating buildings in the Seattle area. If someone ever buys it they would need to make it a non-in-office format, like spoken word, maybe sports. Certainly not AC, Oldies, Hot-AC, Classic hits or Classic Rock that rely on office listening. Might make a good CHR or young hispanic format. Still not sure there is any money in that, which is probably why it hasn't sold.

 

[FMSteve]

Ok...ok..maybe I am an optimist but a 2.0 would simply mean a weekly cume of around 300,000. KING-FM garnered a 2.2 in the June PPM. Even KNBQ way down South is about a 2.0. So what I'm saying it's possible. I guess the strongest argument against is the weaker signal relative to the Class C stations, though King County has the largest population in the area. I will admit to just being a P3 listener.

 

[SRP]

Anyone who would buy that station would not give a rip what the current format or ratings may be.

Every dime that First spends on programming or encoding is simply less profit when they do sell.

They are selling the license only, not a brand folks, get it?

No, they don't get it and it's just another example how pathetically sad this board is.

 

[jdweaver]

All good points - and it's safe to say that any effort beyond keeping it on the air expends management bandwidth, which may not be available. And the proclivity of this board to to paint on blank canvas...which 104.5 certainly is.

Here's my point, with nominal effort the station should do a 1.0-1.5 share- and in a $175M market - that could equate to $1.75M in billing. Let's say that generates a cash flow of 30% which is $575,000. Current multiples top out at 8X or a little more than $4M value for the station. Way under what First wants for the station - which has got to be $20-25M.

The truth may be that it's easier to sell as a blank canvas...than one with a little paint on it.

 

[TVradioguru]

I agree to an extent Mr. Dell Weaver, however I don't believe anyone is getting 8X for a partial-market-signal move in these days.

The only way to keep the speculative value high (which is a relative bet anyway), would be negotiating purely on stick value. If one makes the wrong move on format, with what few buyers are out there are interested in, one could go under stick value quickly. Then First, who are not operators, would be stuck trying to operate a complete albatross.

Patience is key here and whereas chances are First won't make anywhere near their original targets on the sale of KMCQ, they are smart to sit back and just meet the license requirements until someone who either wants into the Seattle market with cash, or a swap/cash deal comes along involving stations in other markets. Worst case scenario, First could still do an LMA with another group if things get tight over time.

 

[radioplayer]

The word "Swap" is an insteresting idea TV....If I were to bet on this on-going 'situation', I think that the only way at this point that 1st would ever get even close to all the $$ shelled out for this turkey would be IF somewhere out there came 'an opportunity' for them to do some horse trading that netted them enough in the trade to justify to their Board that it is 'worth' their expense here.....if not, I agree that their best option at this time would be to sit back, relax and hope Obama and the Dems turn the economy around enough to bring back some value to radio......

 

[TexasTom]

FMS, I agree with you on a lot of things you say here, but a 2.0? Wow-that would be astounding for a station with zero promotion, no personality, and a pretty awful sound. You are obviously more of an optimist about human awareness than I am. I would guess 0 or .1 if encoded. I would be shocked if 2% of the metro even knows they exist, much less ever tunes in.

There is a parallel in the Seattle/Tacoma market, albeit one that is now ancient history. When what is now KUBE-FM launched in early 1980, it launched as an automated format with no advertising and no promotion -- and lousy, over compressed audio -- as "The New 93". They ran that way for about six months before adding a staff and going into a full-blown, fully promoted Adult Top 40 format. And during that time, as I recall, they actually did manage to nab somewhere around a 2 share.

Now that's 30 years ago...can the same thing happen today? I suspect it would be more difficult, to say the least -- with MP3 players and the like as competition to radio, I think that folks are less likely to tune in simply because it's commercial free. I suspect that more people also just program their radio presets and never randomly tune across the band anymore, which means that fewer folks may realize that a new station exists without promotion. Still, it would be interesting to see if it could work.

But, needless to say, that won't happen as long as First Broadcasting owns this station, because they're not in the business of actually running a radio station as a going concern, but just are interested in keeping the license warm until they can sell the thing off.

 

[radioplayer]

There is a parallel in the Seattle/Tacoma market, albeit one that is now ancient history. When what is now KUBE-FM launched in early 1980, it launched as an automated format with no advertising and no promotion -- and lousy, over compressed audio -- as "The New 93". They ran that way for about six months before adding a staff and going into a full-blown, fully promoted Adult Top 40 format. And during that time, as I recall, they actually did manage to nab somewhere around a 2 share......


But, needless to say, that won't happen as long as First Broadcasting owns this station, because they're not in the business of actually running a radio station as a going concern, but just are interested in keeping the license warm until they can sell the thing off.

Boy, do I remember those early KUBE days....that was a long time ago but it seems almost like yesterday. The station almost seemed as though it couldn't figure out what it was going to do until 6+ months later.....You are also absolutely right just how crappy that processing was back then....but, like you said Tom, it wouldn't happen today w/KMCQ.

1) First broadcast has no reason to make this station work. They have already proved this by NOT doing the very things this thread has already mentioned. It is beyond fact that it is merely a placeholder for them and they'll keep it just warm enough w/a carrier and feed the channel audio just to fulfill the pgm requirements....I'm sometimes surprised they don't just sign off to save a little juice and just run the thing w/a 12 hr min/6 day schedule! (if I remember correctly-that is still the FCC min.) But it's probably more of a pain to actually put a garden light timer on the pwr switch to do this!

2) Unlike the early KUBE days, there's far more competition on the Sea dial today....If you don't think so, just look how much share all the heritage stations take today vs. back then. It will amaze you.

3) Unlike KUBE which ran a full 100Kw signal off Cougar, these guys are running just 8% of that! They just don't cover the true market, nor do they 'stand out' like KUBE did even in the early days before they promoted the thing. It's also worth pointing out that they don't cover much of the area where PPM occasionally meters....which certainly would have an adverse rating for them because they just can't cover the TSA.

4) KUBE may have sounded bad at first, but they had more of a solid format approach and they IMPROVED over 6+ months; KMCQ has not in my view, nor does it seem that they will anytime soon.

5) With no local connection for the listener to associate with, no improvement anyplace regarding this station and no real identity to anything other than that 'they are on the air' & 'they play 60's and 70's music', I just don't see why anyone would have strong loyalties for this station. Frankly, I do listen to this format at times but there again, the processing on both KJR-FM and Jack FAR surpass what KMCQ puts out on any given day from an audio perspective.

If there's a format or competition for KMCQ these two are just that, then it is a given that the average listener will not contend with a sucko-sounding station for long unless there's something compelling that keeps them there.....in this case I cannot think of anything that is positively compelling to lock on to for KMCQ.