PPM Out Thursday

[TakeItFromMe]

So what will be the fallout radio-info cowboys ??? There are lots of horseraces yet to be decided on the ole three book average:

Will COMPASS or WOLF be the country winner ??? WOLF won 5 of 11 trends including the last in mornings and kills 18-34 while COMPASS kills 55+. Who wins ???

Who wins in the Rock World for guys ??? KJAQ and KJR-FM look good but KZOK has come on in the last couple of weeks except in mornings. Who wins ???

Who wins for Young Men? WOLF is strong. KISW and jACK started strong but have fallen back as THE END picks up audience. Who wins ???

Who wins 18-34. KBKS's leading but it has begun to drop a bit as KUBE, END and MOVIN pick up some steam. Who wins ???

Who is number one 25-54. Horserace between KJR-FM, KPLZ and JACK. No one else even close. Who wins ???

Who goes away or flips formats. Big thoughts going in were KJR-FM, KWJZ, MOVIN, JACK, KPLZ, KBKS and END. With KJR, JACK, KPLZ, on top that dog dont bark no more :-* KBKS looks better so does MOVIN, END and KWJZ in recent weeks. KWJZ is closing in on WARM in the last couple of weeks. New format Flip stations are KIRO-FM, KIRO-AM (maybe recombo) but other than all the AM stations looking bleak, this cowboy thinks everyone got game and won't change.Only potential switches could be DA MOUNTAIN and KUBE but that is a non-starter. Guess KIRO-FM could go back to Oldies but that ain't gonna happen :-\

Anyone else?

 

[Bongwater]

Well, as for KIRO-FM, the bunch down at 1820 Eastlake are no doubt thinking "Uh-oh...."

Doesn't KIRO-AM have a contract with ESPN? Are there escape clauses? The ratings of 710 kHz haven't been that spectacular since the flip.....

But then again, as I said before how do you tell listeners to "make the switch to FM" only to find in a few months to a year, you'll have to tell listeners to "make the switch back to AM"?

At any rate, KOMO definitely played their cards right (or at least better.) KOMO isn't the biggest winner either, but they knew better than to kill off an AM station that worked at the worst possible time. And if worse comes to worse and KOMO-FM doesn't work out, they can always switch 97.7 to something else a lot more painlessly than KIRO.....

 

[TVradioguru]

AM or FM for KIRO means nothing. It's all about the programming. I would argue that FM probably boosts KIRO over what they would have in PPM had they stayed on the AM band.

I suspect we'll see pretty much a carbon copy of the last three months; that being:

* The music intensive adult stations will continue to win in their demos.
* Country will remain older demo, middle of pack for both stations.
* Spoken word stations will remain off or just barely on the top twenty radar with the exception of KOMO, who may be lower top ten.
* Based on the data so far, (and will continue tracking) the Seattle market numbers will be once again indicating that more people listen to radio than was expected.

 

[djdan]

I tend to agree with guru. The bigger shifts will be on the sales side of the equation. Best I can see, while cume is up only a handful of stations grew their gross ratings points 25-54 and some like KUBE, KMPS, KKWF, KZOK, KRWM, KIRO AM/FM, KMTT, KISW will see their GRP's cut in half. That means they can only charge 50% of what they did before. Clearly they will argue that PPM reduces your GRP, but they will still have to lower spot rates to compete. KJAQ, KPLZ, KJR-FM, will all see their GRP's go up 50% and will be pushing to get more dollars. KBKS, KQMV, KWJZ, KJR-AM and most of the AM stations are flat and will feel no sales impact one way or another.

KUOW is the biggest surprise for me. In many markets NPR does not perform well in the PPM but that is not the case in Seattle. It performs worse than the diary but is still top five 25-54 and by far the most listened to news and talk station in the market. KJR-AM is flat in the PPM, KOMO is only down slightly in the PPM, KIRO-FM, KIRO-AM, KTTH, KVI, are all way off. It may be the news audience in Seattle is an NPR audience which makes competing in this arena tough.

I don't think anyone will flip based on the three month rolling average. The stations most hurt, KUBE, KMPS, KZOK, KRWM, KKWF, KRWM, KIRO AM/FM, KMTT and KISW will just see less sales revenue, but each holds a solid market position and will adjust to try and grow it. KIRO may want to put everything back on AM and take the FM Oldies again or just go back to a combo. Other than that I see no change on the programming side of things. LOTS of change on the sales side come Thursday when the diary numbers are replaced with PPM.

 

[FMSteve]

Guys, couldn't KIRO AM/FM simulcast their broadcast except when the games come on, then switch to the AM for those games, and then the FM would continue along with their news broadcast? This would include the pre and post-game shows just on the AM. After the post-game wrap, then the AM rejoins the FM.

Do you think this could work? I see this as the best solution to their problem, and keeps KIRO as the serious news entity and EBS primary station we have come to rely upon for all of these years.

 

[TVradioguru]

Again I don't believe simulcasting will help them. The previous higher ratings were prior to PPM. One can't make a fair comparison.

When KIRO took away ESPN from the Everett station and KJR, I'm sure they had a minimum programming commitment to adhere to. KIRO's news talk won't be returning to AM, get over it.

You can rant and claim that going back to AM will somehow return KIRO to it's earlier incarnation, but I assure you it wouldn't even if they had that option.

 

[kyliebastel]

Hey gang! Kylie here! UH OH, SPAGHETTI-O!!!!!!!!!! LMAO! ;D

Annnnywhooo, the solution for KIRO at this point - in agreement and deference to the points the guru makes - is to dump all their local programming in favor of syndicated shows. Maybe keep Dori & David (assuming they agree to take a pay cut). Then just plug along until the cycle-down of terrestrial stations starts getting phased-in 5 years hence to allow for GeT power grid reform / wireless energy transmission.

OH yeah, and STOP PLAYING SOUNDERS ON THE FM! KYLIE WANTS HER BOB BRINKER!!!!!

 

[radioprofessor]

I am not familiar with the KIRO ESPN contract but the simulcast of AM/FM makes sense and is working in a couple of markets. The parameter of breaking away on the AM or better the FM for the Mariners games and doing a sports talk program at night after the games makes sensein my humble opinion. The night sports talk program could even be ESPN fulfilling their commitment and ESPN could run on weekends. Mon-Fri 5a-7p would be news talk on both and that is where the real money is made in my humble view. I also see no immediate format flips likely in Seattle. While KJR, KPLZ and KJAQ will make making much more money, everyone else is down about the same amount so there is no obvious format opening in Seattle in the key demographic paraemeters in my humble view. Taking on JACK, KJR and KPLZ is an illogical parameter because they don't lead by that wide a margin. They have five and six shares, while the next level of stations has three and four shares. It is doubtful the market would support a second JACK, or HOT/AC or Classic Hits. One attacks a a market leader when they have 8-10 share numbers in prime demos otherwise it is easier to improve your own product and rise from a three/four share to a five/six share. Much easier in my view.

 

[TVradioguru]

The problem is even if they could simulcast, they would be diluting two stations to make one. KIRO would probably stand to lose $2-5M a year in typical low-hanging revenue if they continued a simulcast.

Even with lower PPM numbers, time will tell if their seasoned sales force can pull the rabbit out of a hat and sell the stations without numbers. Sports stations have historically done pretty well at selling without numbers. There's no reason KIRO couldn't do that too.

KOMO is a different story with sticking their simulcast on a rim-shot FM station to create a beachhead against KIRO moving to FM. I haven't looked at the filing, but I hear the LMA fees are pretty low by comparison. The owner of 97.7 was probably being beaten up pretty badly trying to sell advertising/keeping the lights on in such a small depressed markets whilst in the midst of a troubled economy. The deal with KOMO keeps a steady and predictable cash-flow with the possibility of a payday occurring with the option down the road. Whether Fisher is willing to spend $11M for a rim-shot remains to be seen.

 

[radioprofessor]

The analysis makes sense except for a couple of parameters of competition:

1. KJR-AM is already the established sports station and has triple the number of KIRO-AM in the PPM outside of Mariner games. Therefore, just break away for the games where you can make additional revenue. Reduce costs and increase ratings of the FM News product by combining again.

2. Once the PPM is out KIRO-FM and KIRO-AM will have lost 50% of the audience they had as a combo. They are about to lose any regional sales dollars, or if they hold on will see 30-50% drops in price.

I do agree that KOMO has made a wise move creating an AM/FM beachhead against the KIRO move. I also agree that even with a combo KIRO AM/FM and KOMO AM/FM cannot beat KUOW.

 

[IndigoCoyote]

Well, after all...KUOW is an AM/FM combo...if you count that powerhouse translator in Tumwater!

 

[Goldilocks94941]

I think there are a lot of factors that go into who listens to what on which radio station, and that this discussion sometimes treats each station like a card being dealt in a poker game. Maybe we can do a little more content analysis to argue about what works and what doesn't to attract and keep a listener.

Add up the compelling content versus the tune-out factors, the signal coverage areas, minutes of commercials/promos versus minutes of actual information, relevance to the listener at the time they are listening, etc, and the competition might start to heat up in a way that we all as listeners will benefit from it!

If I were at KIRO, I'd start with toning down the volume a bit (are you modulating at between 95-100% all of the time now? That's like SHOUTING ON THE INTERNET!) Humans don't really sound quite like that. And tone down the heavy processing so the hosts sound more like they sitting next to you in the car -- well, at least some of them -- instead of being larger and louder than life like something coming off of a movie screen. It's actually rather fatiguing to listen for very long, whether focus group members bring it up on their own. I don't think most of the audience for talk radio really want a fast adreline rush as much as to engage their minds and help them deal with stuff like traffic and learning about life, the universe, and everything, to quote a better writer than I.

And If I were at KOMO, I'd do likewise with the FM signal. We can still hear it without processing it like a top 40 station. I think the cheesy sounders and liners every 30 seconds or so detract from taking you seriously as a credible news station. Listen to KCBS, WCBS, WBBM, etc for examples of the all news format that continue to work for decades in their markets.

And if I were at KUOW, I'd move my transmitter to Tiger Mtn ASAP so their multipath issues are diminished in the near and far suburbs. Their signal is hard to listen to as close as Redmond and really problematic as close as Everett. The station's clean coverage are from Capitol Hill is not much better than what a class A signal would cover, despite the 100kw. None of the other 100kw signals have nearly the same level of multipath and signal loss so close in.

Any other suggestions for the powers that be?

 

[Bongwater]

The analysis makes sense except for a couple of parameters of competition:

1. KJR-AM is already the established sports station and has triple the number of KIRO-AM in the PPM outside of Mariner games. Therefore, just break away for the games where you can make additional revenue. Reduce costs and increase ratings of the FM News product by combining again.

2. Once the PPM is out KIRO-FM and KIRO-AM will have lost 50% of the audience they had as a combo. They are about to lose any regional sales dollars, or if they hold on will see 30-50% drops in price.

I do agree that KOMO has made a wise move creating an AM/FM beachhead against the KIRO move. I also agree that even with a combo KIRO AM/FM and KOMO AM/FM cannot beat KUOW.

So there you are. The only way KIRO has a ghost of a chance is to get back to AM/FM simulcast.

I also suppose Bonneville could yell uncle and sell off KIRO/KTTH altogether. But I shudder to think who would buy:

- Salem? Exactly what we need - MORE religious radio in Seattle.....

- Clear Channel? Will have to be a swap. They're flat busted. Same with CBS.

- Entercom? Maybe the FM only

- Crista? (See Salem)

- Sandusky? (See Entercom)

- Bustos? Would give them a REAL Seattle presence, but the price may be a bit steep

- Suh? Multicultural? S-R? Saga? (See Bustos)

- Fisher? It's gonna get mighty cramped there in Fisher Plaza if that ever happens......

As for Goldilocks: That's what happens to just about EVERY signal off Capitol Hill. Worst place EVER to put an FM/TV xmitter......

 

[TVradioguru]

While I know we all want to root for the underdog, non-commercial stations can't convert coverage to dollars like commercial stations can. Underwriting dollars and donations don't hold a candle to what commercial stations can garner, yet the expenses to make a transmitter move, including capital and lease costs are the same.

Assuming KUOW can make their donation goals with the existing signal for basically no rent, I'd not change a thing. Most common advertisers and agencies don't like the limitations of underwriting.

 

[talkerdjdude]

PPM will likely confirm that KIRO made a dumb decision in splitting the AM/FM and thinking either of their products would be all that compelling. They're not. They know it. They've already started putting Mariner games back on KIRO FM and I suspect that will become more of a habit as they try to drive some numbers to the FM. For all the praise Bonneville gets as a company, they certainly can't figure out what to do in Seattle.