I may be able to shed some light on the PPM having experience in multiple PPM markets. The parameter of success seems to be playing out with the latest PPM releases with a variation or two, in my humble view. In broad strokes:
1. News and News Talk lean older and do not perform as well. They got much more credit than they ever deserved. Same with NPR. News on FM makes no difference in the PPM world. Washington DC is the exception but that is an unusual city. While FM News may narrowly beat AM news and talk, in most markets the demo is too old to matter. The format does get a nice spike in Winter during poor weather in northern cities. Please note after the election and winter numbers declined at most News outlets 25-54.
2. Automated stations do not do well over the long haul, in my analysis. The stations that are winning 25-54 in PPM, regardless of format, play a lot of music but also have heritage personalities. I look at KISS in Boston, MIX in Chicago, STAR in Seattle, KISS in LA and the list goes on. The morning personality that will make money in the PPM world learns to deliver content, yet still play music in morning drive. Some make the transition and some have ego's that won't allow them to consider music might be equally as important as their personality; a parameter that won't work in PPM.
3. SOFT-AC and office stations do well in cume at 6+, but tend to lean older.
4. Country has not fared well. Seattle, San Diego and Phoenix numbers are bringing that point home. Smooth Jazz and AAA also face tough times. The exception is San Diego where smooth Jazz is working. Rythmic, Urban and Hispanic continue to face tough times and are the subject of the FCC Inquiry into the PPM.
5. PPM does see variation day to day and week to week, but the monthlies tend to be much less volatile. This is not an extrap, but the first full month of listening from the panel that will not change. The preference parameter is set and the market will adjust. I would expect an Active Rock format (KROQ style) to emerge to challenge KISW and JACK. Expect to see a gold based soft AC (think KODA or KOIT) to challenge KRWM, KPLZ, KCMS and KJR-FM and possibly another Mainstream CHR to attack KUBE, KISS, KPLZ andKQMV, none of which seems to be firing on all cylinders. I expected KISS to do much better based on other markets.
Hope this humble post shares some insight as Seattle digests the new reality. It is a whole new game indeed.