PPM System is Terrible

[WNTIRadio]

Do you think anyone would really do that?

I dunno, it's less obtrusive (a very small mic, the size of a 1/8" connector with a little end on it with the element) than carrying around a 1996 looking pager device and having everyone think you're either a doctor or drug lord.

 

[davideduardo]

5 or 6 people DO make a difference if your station doesn't cover the entire metro, that does happen. There are a lot of those in the NYC market. Had it happen. Panel changed and the ratings drastically changed, turned out that's how many people dropped off and messed up the numbers.

But you said "the difference between a 2 and a 3 share" and I demonstrated that a 3 share represents, in NYC, upwards of 200 metered persons... more with lower TSL stations.

5 or 6 meters would make that big a difference in a station with a 0.2 share, not one with a 3 share.

I don't know of any suburban station with a 3 share.

BTW, the panel is always changing... about 8% a month, between early drop-offs, attrition and noncompliance and reaching the maximum of 24 months on the panel.

The thrust of my posts have been not that this is a 100% lock and perfect way to do it, but that someone needs to think outside the box and come up with better ways to skin this cat.

As I said, Arbitron has been working on a cellular implementation for years. So far, the issues I have mentioned, and others, have made it impossible to implement. I'm quite sure they will eventually come up with a system, but job one is making sure that they can have a true proportional panel and, thus, be eligible for MRC accreditation.

The methodology CAN be improved.

You have been talking about technology. That will always improve over time.

As to methodology, the PPM system has made four or five major methodology changes just in the last year: Cell Phone Only sample (CPO), GeoZones, extension of Address Based Recruiting, In Person Recruiting, multi-year averages for Language Preference, etc.

What we will not get is a larger sample. But the addition of GeoZones should make small panel changes in specific small areas fairly transparent.

 

[WNTIRadio]

Meant to type ".2 share and .3 share". To a small suburban station, that can be a lot of listeners.

With a monopoly on this, what is Arbitron's motivation to really innovate at this point? Competition usually drives innovation, monopolies don't.

 

[davideduardo]

Meant to type ".2 share and .3 share". To a small suburban station, that can be a lot of listeners.

Generally, a .2 is a .3 is a .4 is a .1. All those numbers are within the margin of error calculator results on the PPM website.

It was that way in the diary... although cutoff was around a .3. A low-rated diary station could wander between a .3 and a .7 to .8 quite easily, and it meant nothing due to the margin of error at the low levels of listening.

With a monopoly on this, what is Arbitron's motivation to really innovate at this point? Competition usually drives innovation, monopolies don't.

Right now, the real motivators are the settlements with various state attorney generals, as well as the MRC. In all its 47 years of radio ratings, I have never seen Arbitron as responsive and innovative.

 

[WNTIRadio]

Yes, but to a sales person selling the station, even though it is technically in the margin of error, a .4 and it's cume sure look better to a prospective client than a .1. Let's get back to the real world and selling on the street... a more stable number is easier to sell than wild fluctuations. We inside know what the story is, but the car dealership doesn't. And any explanation comes off as trying to justify poor performance.

But naturally, you'll disagree with everything I say so I'm not going to bother anymore.

 

[davideduardo]

Yes, but to a sales person selling the station, even though it is technically in the margin of error, a .4 and it's cume sure look better to a prospective client than a .1. Let's get back to the real world and selling on the street... a more stable number is easier to sell than wild fluctuations. We inside know what the story is, but the car dealership doesn't. And any explanation comes off as trying to justify poor performance.

But naturally, you'll disagree with everything I say so I'm not going to bother anymore.

I understand that wild variations like that are very difficult to explain to a client. But if a station has such a terribly low number then they likely should not be selling based on ratings.

An honest approach is "we only serve the Gryzwich area, but the ratings cover 100 times the population of this area, so we know that they won't serve our purpose of proving a point or yours of assessing an ad medium. So we feel that you will see a measurable increase in sales as well as building of pre-sale name recognition in this area if you advertise with us. The best rating service is the cash register."

If you live by the ratings, you die by them. It's pretty scary to think that any station that is at the very bottom of the list in a large market would even consider using ratings to sell. It's like entering a Yugo at Daytona.

 

[reelyreal]

Yes, but to a sales person selling the station, even though it is technically in the margin of error, a .4 and it's cume sure look better to a prospective client than a .1. Let's get back to the real world and selling on the street... a more stable number is easier to sell than wild fluctuations. We inside know what the story is, but the car dealership doesn't. And any explanation comes off as trying to justify poor performance.

.. and that's why the REAL issue is why it's silly to sell the numbers to local direct advertisers. Selling the numbers to local direct is a crutch. The best way, in my personal selling experience on the streets, is to sell a station with a solid reputation, a station that gets results. The biggest role of an AE in a small market tends to be "education." It's educating the client on who your listeners REALLY are, what really works on your station, and what package will really work for them.

When it comes to knowing if something works? In my personal experience as a programmer in a small market, talk to your listeners. Reach out. Listen to their calls, their comments. Get out there.

If you're launching a new format and you need numbers to show that it's working, buy A book. Pay for a study. But don't get reliant on it. Relying on the numbers when it comes to local direct is dangerous. Leave the numbers to agencies that don't get it (read: the national agencies that can't possibly understand every market they buy in.) Building relationships with your regional agencies and buyers can be more important. If they trust you and your station works, that carries more weight than numbers.

 

[Neanderpaul]

If it were *just* about selling, I'd pass it off to Sales issues.

However, people on the programming side lose their gigs based upon those wild fluctuations.

Ownership, for the most part doesn't *really* understand PPM. they get reports from their subordinates. And they don't take the time to read the why. They only see numbers and rank.

If you're not "performing," you're gone.

Perform, so the shareholders get their dividends, and the uppers get their bonuses.

I get it. It just sucks for those who work hard, and still find themselves out because of evaluations that aren't accurate.

 

[davideduardo]

However, people on the programming side lose their gigs based upon those wild fluctuations.

But, among stations that can actually use ratings, the fluctuations are far less violent than in the diary.

Further, it takes far less time to see if there is a variation based on methodology or one based on programming and competition. The weeklies are a good judge of the direction of movement... while we used to question using a single book for programming decisions. That's one week, delivered a fortnight later vs. three months delivered when some of the data is 17 to 18 weeks old.

As always, stations in the "ground clutter" range will wobble a lot. Those at the top will be much more stable than in the diary.

 

[TSBench]

It's educating the client on who your listeners REALLY are, what really works on your station, and what package will really work for them.

Back in the late 70s/early80s, WKOX in Framingham put out a pretty slick binder titled "Our Rating Book." Rather than ARB numbers, which were pretty enemic looking for a station in the 'burbs compared to the big metro signals, even for a decent stations like KOX, it consisted of local, metro, and national news stories about the station, its talent, and programming, advertiser endorsements, pictures taken at crowded station events and remotes, bios of the talent, station history, community involvement, and just about every nice thing which had ever been said or written about the station.

Pretty nice sales piece, and I think an effective one, at least for a while. Liked the idea so much I ripped it off for a station I was sales managing at the time.

Not sure it would work today. The marketplace has finally caught up with local stations trying to stay 'local' in competitive big markets and in most places the numbers just don't work anymore.

Regards,
TSB