PPM Welcome to Boston , or your not welcome here .

[rapking]

When PPM come to The Boston Radio Market, What stations will love it, and what stations will hate it .

 

[TSBench]

When PPM come to The Boston Radio Market, What stations will love it, and what stations will hate it .

From experience in other markets, a lot of stations aren't going to like it, some more than others.

It appears that listening levels across the board tend to go down, sometimes substantially. Arbitron's technology to get people to use the things consistantly has been largely a failure, up to now.

The NABOB, seems to be particularly ripped, since it appears that minorities, especially in the younger and middle demos, and particularly with males, are under-represented, which probably won't make some of the music stations very happy. In particular, WJMN-FM would apprear to be the most vulnerable, especially since they have the most exposure and the longest way to fall.

On the non-broadcast side, advertising agencies are having a problem, since the sample sizes are falling to levels where the validity of the rating numbers is becoming problematic.

Regards,
TSB

 

[BRNout]

When PPM come to The Boston Radio Market, What stations will love it, and what stations will hate it .

From experience in other markets, a lot of stations aren't going to like it, some more than others.

It appears that listening levels across the board tend to go down, sometimes substantially. Arbitron's technology to get people to use the things consistantly has been largely a failure, up to now.

The NABOB, seems to be particularly ripped, since it appears that minorities, especially in the younger and middle demos, and particularly with males, are under-represented, which probably won't make some of the music stations very happy. In particular, WJMN-FM would apprear to be the most vulnerable, especially since they have the most exposure and the longest way to fall.

On the non-broadcast side, advertising agencies are having a problem, since the sample sizes are falling to levels where the validity of the rating numbers is becoming problematic.

Regards,
TSB

I've gotta agree with you TSB - CC will not be happy with PPM because WJMN will take a big hit. A pattern has set up in other markets where urban contemporary/hip hop stations drop the furthest and rockers and oldies tend to do better (sometimes, much better). But, Boston is a tougher call because MOST of the formats in this market are in the second group. They can't all improve.

But, one thing is very likely: WJMN will not welcome this technology.

 

[Finn]

doesn't cume go up? but they find listeners are much less loyal than anyone ever thought? (switching a lot more frequently)

 

[TSBench]

doesn't cume go up? but they find listeners are much less loyal than anyone ever thought? (switching a lot more frequently)

Yes, it does, but that was expected, since people using the old paper diary method weren't likely to record stations they encountered and listened to briefly (a couple of tunes, a caller or two) while surfing the dial, a situation which is taken out of play with the PPM.

The problem for stations is the AQH is still the almost universal method of making ad buys. Agencies usually work on Gross Rating Points and Cost-Per-Thousand, and if your AQH goes down, but your cume is up, the station is in the position of lowering spot costs in order to meet buyer targets. Each market usually puts a pretty standard value on demos (W25-54 are expensive, A65+ are cheap) so no matter how large your cume is, you're only going to get so much money to reach a thousand of them. (Yeah, the methodology on this is a lot more complicated and gets into real MEGO territory, but you get what I mean.)

What's eventually going to happen is that media buyers are going to develop new formulations and buying models to take advantage of the new data collection methods. The television buyers eventually did this when the Neilson's went to meters rather than paper diaries.

but they find listeners are much less loyal than anyone ever thought? (switching a lot more frequently)

The worst possible scenario is to have your AQH flat or down and your cume skyrocket, meaning that you're getting a lot of sampling but nobody is sticking around to listen for an extended period.

Interestingly, the preliminaries show that sporting event play-by-play cumes tend to go up substantially, especially for games during the day and on weekends, which is good news for the carrying stations because sporting events may be the most pure cume play there is (if you're a sponsor of the Sox, Celtics, Pats or Bruins, you're guaranteed to reach the entire audience for the games, probably sooner than later, and often.) This should benefit WRKO/WEEI most of all.

Regards,
TSB

 

[BRNout]

It is also my understanding that the types of stations that you'd hear in an office or restaurant as background music (like WMJX or WODS) tend to do well too - as that sort of passive listening is captured. In the past, those listening encounters would not usually be logged in a diary.

 

[Finn]

Went to a presentation about PPM. What they've learned by analyzing the new PPM data:

- P1's are not nearly as loyal as they thought
- P1's are either loyalists or switchers (deep or shallow loyalty)
- P1's are either heavy or light listeners

P1's can now be subdivided as follows:

Loyalist/Deep - someone who listens to your station pretty much all the time - maybe 80/20%, 90/10% - called this deep loyalty
Switcher/Shallow - someone who listens slightly more to your station - 55/45% - called this shallow loyalty

Heavy - someone who listens a lot,
Light - someone who listens a few hours a week

P1 Prime - Heavy listeners, deep loyalty - station's audience
Heavy shallow (loyalty) - best prospects
Light listeners - do not matter, don't waste your time on them, whether they are deep or shallow

So, very small percentage of listeners determine programming. Who are they:

Most valuable listeners are age 45-54 - heavy time spent, very loyal

By ethnicity:
Black - heavy, loyal
Latino - loyal to format, not to station; BUT spanish-speaking Latinos heavy listeners, english-speaking Latinos light listeners (ironically, this means that the Spanish-speaking listeners will be catered to, and English-speaking ones won't be)

you can get a copy of the published report here: http://www.dmrinteractive.com/ppm2

What does it mean for Boston? in talk, seems like there are a lot of really great prospects - heavy/shallow listeners looking for a place to call home.

 

[TSBench]

Finn,

Thanks for the link to that report.

A couple of things gleaned from it, especially the reliance of radio stations on the heavy users.

The price of play-by-play sports rights, especially baseball, is going to go up.

Talk stations are going to stick, as most now do, with ideologically consistant programming thoughout the day. You're not going to see Steph Miller following Limbaugh on many stations, or vice versa. It's not a conspiracy, as some would have it, just good business.

Regards,
TSB

 

[Finn]

Finn,

Thanks for the link to that report.

A couple of things gleaned from it, especially the reliance of radio stations on the heavy users.

The price of play-by-play sports rights, especially baseball, is going to go up.

Talk stations are going to stick, as most now do, with ideologically consistant programming thoughout the day. You're not going to see Steph Miller following Limbaugh on many stations, or vice versa. It's not a conspiracy, as some would have it, just good business.

Regards,
TSB

Agreed re ideologically consistent programming. However, if what many people say about music radio following the same path as the music industry is true (i.e. kaput), then in the few years before transmitters become irrelevant (and wifi becomes ubiquitous), there will be more opportunities for other types of talk. Not only will there be more stations to choose from, but smaller numbers of heavy/loyal listeners will determine the formats).

This could be other types of political talk, but could also be lifestyle shows - like Cigar Dave! http://www.cigardave.com/index.html Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, but sometimes it's not, and you can be sure that Cigar Dave will got to the bottom of whatever is... handy. (just look at the site, you'll understand).

And, if you want to know more about how young people are (not) listening to radio, check this out: http://www.thebedroomstudy.com/

 

[TSBench]

Agreed re ideologically consistent programming.

One way you can tell the amateurs from the professionals is seeing who thinks that throwing mixed ideologies back-to-back is a good idea.

However, if what many people say about music radio following the same path as the music industry is true (i.e. kaput), then in the few years before transmitters become irrelevant (and wifi becomes ubiquitous), there will be more opportunities for other types of talk. Not only will there be more stations to choose from, but smaller numbers of heavy/loyal listeners will determine the formats).

Well, I don't know enough about music programming philosophy to discuss it intelligently. But, I do remember how the prevailing wisdom was that television was going to put the movies, and radio, out of business and they both went on to do better than ever. I'm still an agnostic on this score, but, based on nothing in particular, I don't think commercial radio is going to become irrelevant in my lifetime.

This could be other types of political talk, but could also be lifestyle shows - like Cigar Dave!

Heck, this is one of the those shows which seems tailor made for weekend programming on existing talk stations, which break the ideological format regularly on weekends.

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, but sometimes it's not,

I'll resist the minor urge to insert the standard Bill Clinton joke.

Regards,
TSB

 

[Finn]

Well, I don't know enough about music programming philosophy to discuss it intelligently. But, I do remember how the prevailing wisdom was that television was going to put the movies, and radio, out of business and they both went on to do better than ever. I'm still an agnostic on this score, but, based on nothing in particular, I don't think commercial radio is going to become irrelevant in my lifetime.

I've heard quite a few people reference the television didn't destroy movies, etc; so there are lots of folks out there. But, I sometimes get the feeling they are hoping it's true and crossing their fingers for luck while they say it.

Heck, I'm no expert, but seems to me that people will always want music, storytelling, and conversations with people. I just wonder if it's going to be on motorola phones on a verizon phone network with ads by google and content from ??? Syndicators?

Anyone, chime in here...

 

[webcastboy]

One ultra-niche thing that I think the PPM ought to reveal is just how good/bad the concept is of the top-of-the-hour news / traffic on the 3's / etc. For example, many have argued for years that the standard NPR format of a 60 second billboard, followed by five minutes of news, then returning to the main show...is DEADLY for listeners to the show; people want the show, not the newscast. Supposedly, take the newscast out and TSL jumps by 20 minutes more. OTOH, others argue that many people WANT the newscast and really only the newscast, and that the billboard is what you use to "convince" them to stick around after the newscast is over.

There's evidence for both approaches, but only the hyper-specific sampling of the PPM in a strong news market will really show us for sure. Fortunately, Boston has that base with WBUR, WGBH, WTTT, WBZ, WRKO, WTKK and WEEI all doing some form of newscasting during drive times...and I'm sure I'm forgetting someone there.

Ultimately I think everyone will adapt reasonably well to the PPM once it becomes the universal standard upon which all stations are judged. Stations will adapt. Ad buyers will adapt. The game will play on. The hard part will be the transition period, during which some stations will have to awkwardly shift their marketing and programming to effectively maximize their ratings under two totally different measurement methods, to satisfy two different camps of ad buyers (since some buyers will flock to PPM results quicker than others).

 

[BRNout]

One ultra-niche thing that I think the PPM ought to reveal is just how good/bad the concept is of the top-of-the-hour news / traffic on the 3's / etc. For example, many have argued for years that the standard NPR format of a 60 second billboard, followed by five minutes of news, then returning to the main show...is DEADLY for listeners to the show; people want the show, not the newscast. Supposedly, take the newscast out and TSL jumps by 20 minutes more. OTOH, others argue that many people WANT the newscast and really only the newscast, and that the billboard is what you use to "convince" them to stick around after the newscast is over.

There's evidence for both approaches, but only the hyper-specific sampling of the PPM in a strong news market will really show us for sure. Fortunately, Boston has that base with WBUR, WGBH, WTTT, WBZ, WRKO, WTKK and WEEI all doing some form of newscasting during drive times...and I'm sure I'm forgetting someone there.

Ultimately I think everyone will adapt reasonably well to the PPM once it becomes the universal standard upon which all stations are judged. Stations will adapt. Ad buyers will adapt. The game will play on. The hard part will be the transition period, during which some stations will have to awkwardly shift their marketing and programming to effectively maximize their ratings under two totally different measurement methods, to satisfy two different camps of ad buyers (since some buyers will flock to PPM results quicker than others).

Interesting that you should bring this up because WPHT is just giving this a try on their AM drive, "The Michael Smerconish Show." Let's see how that one works.

 

[Laurence Glavin]

One ultra-niche thing that I think the PPM ought to reveal is just how good/bad the concept is of the top-of-the-hour news / traffic on the 3's / etc. For example, many have argued for years that the standard NPR format of a 60 second billboard, followed by five minutes of news, then returning to the main show...is DEADLY for listeners to the show; people want the show, not the newscast. Supposedly, take the newscast out and TSL jumps by 20 minutes more. OTOH, others argue that many people WANT the newscast and really only the newscast, and that the billboard is what you use to "convince" them to stick around after the newscast is over.

There's evidence for both approaches, but only the hyper-specific sampling of the PPM in a strong news market will really show us for sure. Fortunately, Boston has that base with WBUR, WGBH, WTTT, WBZ, WRKO, WTKK and WEEI all doing some form of newscasting during drive times...and I'm sure I'm forgetting someone there.

Ultimately I think everyone will adapt reasonably well to the PPM once it becomes the universal standard upon which all stations are judged. Stations will adapt. Ad buyers will adapt. The game will play on. The hard part will be the transition period, during which some stations will have to awkwardly shift their marketing and programming to effectively maximize their ratings under two totally different measurement methods, to satisfy two different camps of ad buyers (since some buyers will flock to PPM results quicker than others).

WTTT? First of all, their audience is almost nil so there's nothing to measure, and second: they take SRN or USA news OTOH for a minute or so, and then go into spots from get-rich-quick scams. Hey I thought 'TTT was "Christian-oriented". Didn't the scribes who made up the quotes attributed to J.C. have him saying not to care about accumulating riches?