PPM

[WKomm]

A few opinions - not facts - opinions.

The PPM numbers should really be no surprise. I recall when I started in radio (back in 1911) that the highest rated stations in many markets was always the "easy listening" station. Of course we young/hip/AOR/CHR types dismissed the massive #'s as "dentist office music" and other put-downs. It appears maybe the majority of people DO like pablum/vanilla radio after all. And they like Jim Carrey movies. And they like McDonald's. And they like $12 Wranglers from Target. And Walmart. The hipsters may be getting a major reality check.

And long ago I recall thinking CHR ruled the world and how surprised I was when Soundscan started showing the massive sales numbers for (gasp!) urban music. You mean rap & hip hop actually outsold Journey & Toto? Wow!

And finally ...

I've not posted any anti-KIRO rants because, quite honestly, I couldn't bring myself to even listen enough to mock them. But I smile when I think about the pipsqueak loudmouth Doris and the overnight revelation that he's gone from star to stink in an instant. I can only imagine how horrible the #'s for Burbank and his smugfest must be. KIRO has shot itself in the foot over the last 5-7 years. If crap like Delilah and the non-offensive KPLZ reigns in these truer (IMO) numbers then maybe the geniuses that run 710 should have made the daring, innovative move to LEAVE IT ALONE. My guess is a true, well-rounded talk station would actually perform much better than the open-mic night at the comedy club baloney they now air.

All I can say is: told ya so.

 

[Shark]

Welcome back WKomm, we've missed you!

 

[radioprofessor]

The Seattle Times agrees with your humble opinion. A bit off, but reasonable analysis.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2009284439_radio01m.html

 

[mammaknowsbest]

What has happennned to Seattle Radio. Mamma leaves and it all goes to hell. The PPM is full of crap and it won't be around much longer. Do you really believe aging Kent and allan are the best Seattle has to offer? what happened to Ichibod and Rivers. once cellphone users are added to the survey and arbitron gets it right then they will get it right. Mamma thinks we will be going back to the dairy method soon!!! Change is a comin. mammaknowsbest.

 

[WKomm]

radioprofessor - yup, the Times & I mostly agree.

shark - SURE you did

mamma - God bless your lil' ol' heart. Ya just gotta love someone who keeps thinking that we'll go back to the "good old days." Flawed as PPM may be, it HAS to be better than asking busy people to write down every station they listen to and note the time. If anything, PPM is just the start and we'll soon be seeing overnight ratings for radio, ala TV. In fact, a PD will be able to pull up minute-by-minute numbers on a computer/PDA and adjustments made RIGHT THEN. I've done radio for a long, long time and if you're trying to tell me the diary system is accurate - there is no way. We've all been through it: one book you're a 9.1 12+ and the next book you're a 4.8.

Ridiculous.

Not to mention the insane method of "weighing" books according to racial components. And equally as crazy? The fact that a few errant books can skew the numbers so badly that a #6 signal can go to #3 if a few friends get a book. Back in the day when I had phone jammers, the PD of one large station I was working told phone screeners to ask a few quick questions to try and determine if any callers had diaries. They did and they did. So how is that fair?

PPM will thrive because it will eventually lead to a gold standard. No more fudging numbers, playing word games, blaming sun spots or surging sports teams or an election or lousy music. No more hiding.

 

[radioprofessor]

So mamma wants the "dairy" method? A new parameter of ratings to say the least.
Like it or not the PPM is here to stay, since most major groups have signed multi-year contracts, as have the major agencies.

 

[FMSteve]

I am looking over the PPM material now. What is most exciting, and has been overlooked in this thread, is that radio's reach in this market has been tremendously improved! This is the untold story of the PPM. For example, they say that there are 17 stations with cumes that exceed 400,000 listeners. Yet the diary methodolgy produced just 2 stations with cumes exceeding 400,000. (Winter 09 vs. April 09, P12+ 6a-mid).

In other words, they LIKE us, they really like us! (quoting Sally Field). Put another way, radio is reaching more people than newspapers and many other mediums. What this really means is that radio is a more viable advertising option, with a low cost per thousand (CPM). Rather than beating up each individual station, a better option and strategy is to promote radio as an exceptional conduit for advertising dollars. I am sick and tired of the newspapers and their full-color Sunday and Wednesday circulars (I call them "toppings" as I once was a paperboy). The first thing I do when getting the Sunday paper is throw out those damn full-color inserts.

So, my hope is that with the PPM and radios tremendous reach we can generate increased revenue for all of us, and allow the newspapers a smaller slice of the pie here in Seattle.

 

[placebo1969]

I have a possibly naive question about PPM. I understand the diary system is/was easily manipulated and prone to people forgetting to log every time they change the station. But can't someone with a PPM just put the device near a radio all day and listen to different stations elsewhere?

 

[te519]

PSRBA Presents: Portable People Meter Lessons Learned - SUMMARY

WHAT: A three hour panel discussion and Q & A with programming and sales executives from active PPM markets.
WHEN: Friday, January 23rd, 9:00 AM – 11:00 AM
WHERE: CRISTA Ministries Auditorium, 19303 Fremont Ave. N, Seattle WA

Panel

Katie Wilcox GSM at WILD/KMEL, Clear Channel, San Francisco
Marc Rayfield Market Manager CBS, Philadelphia.
Chuck Tweedle Senior Vice President, Bonneville, Los Angeles.
Tiffany Kirk VP, Director of Local Broadcast, Optimedia, Seattle.
Chantell Haskins VP, Associate Broadcast Director, PHD Network, Los Angeles.
Jacquelyn Ballerman Senior Account Manager & PPM Trainer, Arbitron, Inc.
Moderator: Carol Handley, PSRBA President

NUTS & BOLTS

1. Arbitron is targeting 1625 panelists for each Seattle-Tacoma report.
2. Estimate: 3 diaries = 1 meter (Seattle usually had about 3,800 diaries in-tab per quarterly report.)
3. The expected turnover rate of the panel is about 10% per month,
4. 75% of the panel wears their meter each day.
5. There are thirteen 4-week reports per year, but a 3-month rolling average is considered “actionable”.
6. Like TV, Arbitron will now survey children. It’s 6+, not 12+ anymore.
7. Data is “real time” (not 3 months old) and can be accessed very quickly.
8. Two data sets are available. “Respondent Level Data” (stations) and “Summary Level Data” (agencies and other buyers)
9. Surveying cell phone-only households remains a problem. Arbitron continues to research how to reach these people.
10. Margin of Error rates are virtually the same when comparing PPM results to diary results.

PROGRAMMING IMPACTS

1. All four quarter hours matter.
2. There is a broader daypart consistency. It’s no longer just AM and PM Drive. Middays matter.
3. P-1’s are 10x more important in PPM measurement compared to diary. In fact a subset of a station’s P-1’s may account for up to 88% of that station’s quarter hours.
4. Cume numbers are higher, but TSL declines.
5. “Phantom Cume” is “really real”.
6. There is no need for overkill on call letter/station name delivery on air.
7. “Appointment Listening” can matter, particularly for sports and on weekends.
8. “Special” must really mean special for programs, contesting, event announcements, etc.
9. With all 4 quarter hours having a fairly equal impact, stations are re-thinking where to place stopsets and other program elements.
10. New currency or old, content is still king. Create good content ALWAYS.

SALES IMPACTS

1. PPM brings about a fundamental change in the buy/sell process.
2. Knowledge = Power. Be prepared for transition.
3. Know what to expect on conversions of PPM vs. diary.
4. Stations will need to price differently.
5. CPP is expected to rise.
6. Increased market compression with everyone tied for 4th place. “Flat is the new up.” 100 = 70
7. Forget “Share”. It’s “Rating Point” delivery that matters. There will be higher Shares, but lower Points.
8. Buying “Rankers” will not be as important.
9. Buyers may purchase more frequency, but utilize fewer stations.
10. Because of compression, selling returns to positioning niche and brand.

 

[Shark]

I have a possibly naive question about PPM. I understand the diary system is/was easily manipulated and prone to people forgetting to log every time they change the station. But can't someone with a PPM just put the device near a radio all day and listen to different stations elsewhere?

The PPM devices are equipped with a motion sensor so if you leave it on the dresser all day you'll get a call from Arbitron that night asking why you didn't wear it. If you don't wear it on a regular basis you'll get booted off the panel (or so they say).

 

[placebo1969]

I have a possibly naive question about PPM. I understand the diary system is/was easily manipulated and prone to people forgetting to log every time they change the station. But can't someone with a PPM just put the device near a radio all day and listen to different stations elsewhere?

The PPM devices are equipped with a motion sensor so if you leave it on the dresser all day you'll get a call from Arbitron that night asking why you didn't wear it. If you don't wear it on a regular basis you'll get booted off the panel (or so they say).

Thanks.

*Puts PPM in wind up swingset with radio playing Chinese Opera all day*

 

[RadioRon]

Hey Mama...

Get with the picture girl! Cell phone users are in the Seattle PPM....heard it with my own ears from the ARB gang. The other thing that's ringing true is the consistency of PPM....not a lot of wobbles here. Get used to seeing it as it is Mama. Oh...one more thing....the PPM will be around long after all of us are gone. The change isn't comin as you say....the change is already here!

 

[JimmyJames]

Yet another blow to stations trying to maintain themselves while delivering a more niche but marketable audience. Overemphasis on these samples discounts stations like KNDD and KMTT which have fewer listeners but more engaged audiences who may actually care about who advertises and supports "their" station. Plus, in office and retail, it could measure a station the panelist wasn't even listening to by choice, giving them unfair bumps. KMTT fan stuck in an office where a Star listener controls the radio? Your station gets screwed and has a harder time selling.

PPM will bring more blandness in radio and more reactionary stupidity. Public radio's looking better every day.

 

[LITTLEBOYBLUE]

Isn't that a (workable) challenge for the sales staff? If you want to sit back and take orders from the buyers, then it's true your staff will be tied to ARB methodologies. But, as you suggest, a loyal audience is of interest to many advertisers and it is up to the sales crew to identify the loyal advertisers who share that "mindset". That is one thing KPTK did well...from their launch they made a point of reminding advertisers "we have a loyal and committed audience", even running sales promos that reinforced that.

 

[JimmyJames]

It is a challenge, but unfortunately a lot of sales staff isn't up to it. I've seen this battle and fought it myself. If PPM, lack of sales awareness, and short term corporate thinking is working against you, it makes it that much harder in formats like AAA, Alt/Modern Rock, Progressive Talk and others. I'm concerned about PPM being the straw that breaks the camel's back for stations like that.

 

[radioprofessor]

A couple of comments if I may:

1. Good radio is king. AAA stations and Alternative stations actually do quite well in the PPM in other markets 25-54. (KROQ, KFOG come to mind) It seems these formats could also do well here. A variety of formats are on top in PPM markets though CHR and Soft AC have the most number one finishes. Hot/AC actually is only number one 25-54 in Seattle, though it is number 1 in Detroit 6+. Smooth Jazz is tied for number one in San Diego and Sports wins in Detroit. In Seattle sports stations don't crack the top 15. It is not a "format driven" methodology, in my humble view

2. Good radio is different by format parameter. A soft ac with tons of personality and a wild morning show will fail. A CHR that just plays music will fail. A Hot/AC that gets too modern on music will fail. An Alternative station that is too safe will fail. Good radio is knowing what your audience wants and delivering it every day so you get good marks in the PPM, which doesn't lie. Voting for your "favorite" station doesn't count, people must listen to it. Do good radio aimed at your format audience and you will deliver numbers.

3. The dairy method may "milk" the ratings out of your listeners (RP joke for mamma)

4. The meter is motion sensitive and arbitron regularly calls panelists to confirm unusual listening. It isn't perfect by any means. Panels recruitment is tough, cell-phone quotas have not been met, but for now, it seems to be the gold standard in the ratings parameter and with long term contracts signed, it will be here for a long time.

 

[TowerLamp]

Isn't that a (workable) challenge for the sales staff? If you want to sit back and take orders from the buyers, then it's true your staff will be tied to ARB methodologies. But, as you suggest, a loyal audience is of interest to many advertisers and it is up to the sales crew to identify the loyal advertisers who share that "mindset". That is one thing KPTK did well...from their launch they made a point of reminding advertisers "we have a loyal and committed audience", even running sales promos that reinforced that.

LBB, right you are. As radio re-invents itself it's time for radio-sales A/E's to do the same. Local-direct sales will become increasingly important. Can my station draw people to your showroom for a remote...can I get butts in seats for a station sponsored cruise...eat hotdogs at your car stereo tent sale...and programmers, now more than ever you've got to super serve those P1's, let them feel the love!

 

[WKomm]

As I see it ...

PPM seems to show us that (surprise!) listeners value big things - artist visits/interviews, benchmark bits, truly cool contests. For the few stations stressing live radio, I see this as good news for honest ta gawd personalities. The card readers are completely and totally toast. Half-assed "caller #9" contests should be history.

I also see some other weird things that might - MIGHT - happen.

Talking about AE's - I see PPM resulting in turning ad sales into a mideast bazzar. As the numbers come in, literally minute by minute, ad buyers will monitor them like the stock market. If they see #'s trending down during the stunt boy bits, they'll quickly call to move their spots away from that bit and to another section of the show drawing more listeners. In fact, it might turn into ebay. If a morning show has a bit that consistently elevates numbers, advertisers could bid to get in on that action and spot breaks could literally change constantly throughout an hour. With instantaneous numbers, no need to wait weeks or months for ratings. If the airstaff is made up of 1099s, when one show is faltering, a PD could search data banks for a show in his format that's available and plug that show on his air immediately - kind of like looking for a long relief pitcher. The PD would be much closer to a sports club manager, constantly having to monitor the performance of the station. They might actually have to work for a change ...

And as a long-time radio guy, none of this bothers me. In fact, I find it kind of exciting.

Stray thoughts on a sultry night.

 

[TVradioguru]

As I see it ...

PPM seems to show us that (surprise!) listeners value big things - artist visits/interviews, benchmark bits, truly cool contests. For the few stations stressing live radio, I see this as good news for honest ta gawd personalities. The card readers are completely and totally toast. Half-assed "caller #9" contests should be history.

Interesting.. So how do you account for the apparent growth of stations like KJAQ and KJR-FM in PPM? Do those stations present "big things?"

 

[notalent]

If you read the comment section of the Times article you'll notice it devoled into a bunch of people voting for their favorite stations.

This is exactly what the diary method devolved into. Of course people with a diary knew what they had, especially if they were of a particular group of the population that certain radio stations program directly to.

to use the phrase d' jour... In my humble opinion, the diary method turned into an American Idol of sorts with panelists "voting" for their favorite stations. When a person with a diary is aware of the impact they can make of course they are going to vote early and often for their favorite station to "win." Very few panelists could recall at the end of the week every exposure to every radio signal they heard for 15 minutes.

The flaws in PPM are far less influential on the final result than the "voting" that has occured in the diary method.

Those that want to go back to the diary method are invested in the notion that hype works and diary keepers "voting" for them is somehow better than an actual scientific picture of what really is being heard.

As for the dairy method, sounds kinda cheesy.