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Predictions for 2011

S

Steenman

2010 has seen move in's, format changes, continued impact of PPM affecting morning shows, how stations promote, different stations at the top of the ratings pile, more compression, continued poor economy affecting staffing and bottom line, continued evolution of stations on-line sites and streaming, and many more elements this board can no doubt remind us of. Question, who stands to gain? Who's got a target on their back?

I'll jump in with a couple of predictions as the thread evolves. I'll start by saying that STAR and Kent Phillips, who I think is one of the smartest programmers in the business (and a darn nice guy) probably has their/his work cut out for him this year with 98.9 Click coming after him.

What else?
 
Steenman said:
2010 has seen move in's, format changes, continued impact of PPM affecting morning shows, how stations promote, different stations at the top of the ratings pile, more compression, continued poor economy affecting staffing and bottom line, continued evolution of stations on-line sites and streaming, and many more elements this board can no doubt remind us of. Question, who stands to gain? Who's got a target on their back?

I'll jump in with a couple of predictions as the thread evolves. I'll start by saying that STAR and Kent Phillips, who I think is one of the smartest programmers in the business (and a darn nice guy) probably has their/his work cut out for him this year with 98.9 Click coming after him.

What else?
Click to expand...

Well, not sure about Click taking much away from Star. The music on Click, (so far), leans a bit more alternative than Star, and they certainly don't have any talent to match Star at this point. However, the demo that Star is going after might be intrigued with Click, so all bets are off. Beyond that, KJR-FM probably made a brilliant move to position themselves as "oldies", with the lack of a KBSG competition. (Although 95.7 does not sound totally different than they did before, it is all about imaging at this point).
 
Biggest OPPORTUNITY may be for KIRO teams @ Eastlake to get it together. Most of the recent moves, I believe, will be for the better ... KVI will reach its goal of a better performance with oldies than talk (though not really a ratings monster by any means); KJR-F will probably do well with olides (though for many of us we'll not be inspired to listen because the format is nowhere NEAR what it could be), KMCQ may finally decide to take an offer (even it short of what they originally penciled). More AM's thin to become specialty/niche or small-owner/operator properties...and FM's will continue to under-inspire us with mass-appeal, profitable, winning formats. The change I have been waiting to see for a long time feels ripe now -- which is improvement in big-picture thinking of news/information delivery with partnerships, new thinking about delivery (less of the "I'm TV ... I'm newspaper ... I'm radio" separation). Social media settles into useful connectivity and less of the all-saving panacea that many have touted it to be with regard to media integration. Most of us use it ... but most of us could also make it through weeks without it,
 
Here you go:

1. Star has been the dominant station in PPM both in ratings and revenue for two years. While Click is more of a modern niche it will definitely eat at stars's Time Spent Listening. It isn't a question of beating star, but can they knock them down enough for warm to return as the number one female station and 25-54 station in the market, not just during the three months around Christmas. Click is a flanking station, that will have a nice genx core following. Poor genx radio at clear channel is dead out of the box.

2. Kjr-fm going Oldies was designed to bring in more women. kjr had leaned male. By playing Christmas music to draw women in and then shifting to Oldies (which is only two or three different songs an hour than they were doing as Classic Hits) they will get some nice early 25-54 numbers. Eventually they may lose men and the women may not stay. Early they will do well, long term they may have been better to stay Classic Hits with a male lean. Better to own something from a sales point of view.

3. kzok and jack may be the big winners in 2011. With kjr aiming more toward women, the male classic hits fans will abandon TSL with Kjr and spend more time with kzok and jack. Kmtt should adjust more Classic to fill the gap and if they hire Bob Rivers, which is the top speculation, Kmtt could rebound. In the meantime kzok and jack will grow.

4. kbks has had a good couple month run, could be that floating 18-34 ppm spike. Movin will make a run at them. I think kbks will prevail, but may lose some of the numbers they had going in. kndd will also be hurt a bit by click and kube is not ppm friendly, so kisw could be your big winner in 2011 in the 18-34 game. Country battle will be a dead heat with wolf winning 18-34 and kmps winning 35-64. Both in top ten, but seventh and eigth for the year 25-54, same as 2010.

5. komo and kiro-fm will battle on. When weather is bad, or news breaks komo will win, if all is quiet kiro will win. ktth is dead in the water, kvi will do better over time as an oldies station but not a factor. Sports stations battle for 20th and 21st. kuow remains the winner in spoken word by a mile.

Big winners: warm, kzok, jack and kisw
Big losers: ?

My take, all just educated guesses!
 
I heard through the grapevine that Rivers and some of his gang are back on the air somewhere in April. KMTT is interesting- if there a lot of rumbling in the biz that puts him there?
 
Scratch KMTT speculation...KJR-FM is the new home of rivers. So much for listening to speculation. One more prediction for 2011: Rivers will adapt to his new format and regain his audience with little trouble. He transitioned from KISW to KZOK and now from KZOK to Oldies. His show is all talk and his fans could care less what happens after he leaves at ten am. He may find a whole new audience. Clear Channel stepped up, not bad for a group that used to have the nickname "Cheap Channel." I guarantee the Rivers show was not cheap especially compared to all music in the morning at no cost for the last two years at KJR.
 
I'm not a speculator, but my money is on Clear Channel syndicating Bob Rivers. When they parted company with Jay Kelly, and went all-Christmas, and when I heard the Rivers/KJR news just before Christmas, each time that's the first thing that came to mind.

2011 Predictions for Coastal Washington: No format changes, three new LPFMs (all hobbyists disguised as educational institutions) and a major move-out. Film at 11.
 
Bill Wolfenbarger said:
I'm not a speculator, but my money is on Clear Channel syndicating Bob Rivers. When they parted company with Jay Kelly, and went all-Christmas, and when I heard the Rivers/KJR news just before Christmas, each time that's the first thing that came to mind.

2011 Predictions for Coastal Washington: No format changes, three new LPFMs (all hobbyists disguised as educational institutions) and a major move-out. Film at 11.
Click to expand...

I too, heard the KJR news around Christmas. Syndication of TBRS is on the mind of Clear Channel without question. Makes sense doesn't it? Interesting and refreshing that Jodi Brothers is joining Bob and co.
 
Bill Wolfenbarger said:
I'm not a speculator, but my money is on Clear Channel syndicating Bob Rivers.
Click to expand...

Deja vu all over again.

When Rivers signed with CBS last decade the "s" word was also being bandied about. The show was tried on a station in Portland - Oregon, not Maine - and that experiment failed miserably.

Rivers' show is good as local shows go, but it doesn't have the "legs" to go national. Being on the West Coast is another strike against syndication - unless the crew wants to start working at 3am every day.
 
Bill Wolfenbarger said:
I'm not a speculator, but my money is on Clear Channel syndicating Bob Rivers. When they parted company with Jay Kelly, and went all-Christmas, and when I heard the Rivers/KJR news just before Christmas, each time that's the first thing that came to mind.

2011 Predictions for Coastal Washington: No format changes, three new LPFMs (all hobbyists disguised as educational institutions) and a major move-out. Fil
Click to expand...
 
Bill Wolfenbarger said:
I'm not a speculator, but my money is on Clear Channel syndicating Bob Rivers. When they parted company with Jay Kelly, and went all-Christmas, and when I heard the Rivers/KJR news just before Christmas, each time that's the first thing that came to mind.

2011 Predictions for Coastal Washington: No format changes, three new LPFMs (all hobbyists disguised as educational institutions) and a major move-out. Film at 11.




AC/Smooth Jazz for the coast and Seattle 93.7?
Click to expand...
 
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