What are your predictions for LA radio in the next 15 years? with listeners declining. I can't find anyone who still listens to FM radio except for pre-teens. Will AM FM become all talk in every language?
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Predictions for am fm radio
- Thread starter JohnnyOhJohnny
- Start date
JohnnyOhJohnny said:
Well, 95.6% of the 6+ population of LA listens to the radio, and in adults 25-54 it¿s 96.6% per the May book.
It's hard to make predictions when you base them on a baseless assumption.
JohnnyOhJohnny said:
My soon-to-be 13-year-old has never in his life even turned on a radio and I suspect I'd have to explain to him the concept of "tuning" to stations. I have the radio on once in a while in the car, usually satellite or PBS and every so often something catches his ear, but really to him radio is something old people use.
But yes, I too wonder who the heck listens to commercial AM/FM radio? Between insipid jocks and horrendous spot breaks there's little entertainment value to be had, especially outside the morning hours. I suspect most listening is background listening, with the radio on in another room, or on the PA system in a store or other business, that sort of thing, but really except for DX'ers I can't recall when I last met someone who listened to radio in home, and in fact I can't think of anyone I know who has a radio at home except for perhaps an old clock radio, which used to wake them up and where the radio may run while they're in the shower and being very passive listeners.
So having the ratings service come up with a number showing most adults listening is surely a tribute to art of manipulating gringos simply do not.
radio-darn said:
Or perhaps it's hard to accept facts when they don't match your own personal experience. It's easy to pay for radio or listen on cell phones and computers when you have disposable income. Lots of people don't have that luxury. Back during the depression, the reason people listened to the radio was because they couldn't afford to attend live concerts or shows. OTA radio enjoys a huge listenership among blacks, Hispanics, and other minorities. That is a growing population in this country, especially LA. There isn't much future in programming radio to a declining population of rich white folks. They can afford to get what they want anywhere. Most of the big radio companies are diversifying their platforms to internet and mobile, so they're already reaching those people there. There will always be a market for free entertainment on a platform that's easy to receive.
microbob said:
I think Disney has already done that.
The fact is that music has diversified and splintered to the point where only a handful of formats reach enough people to make mass media worth doing. Radio can't do anything about that. People want what they want when they want it, and they want it for free. It was easier to play music on the radio when there was a limitation on the number of artists. That went away a long time ago. Radio is a mass medium and aims at what the majority of people want. The Balkinization of American culture is hurting mass media. But there still seems to be a lot of people who eat cheap hamburgers. Same with OTA radio.
TheBigA said:
Programming that attracts a younger audience (meaning, I would guess, at least age 14 and up) is good, but targetting 8-year-olds? On AM? In 2011? C'mon, man!
Disney didn't start that network to make money; it's a very expensive part of the marketing budget. It sort of worked in 1996 (it killed Radio Aahs on the Disney name alone), before streaming and satellite radio took off, but in 2011, it's too expensive to operate expensive AM transmitters where the land is worth more than the stations are.
Radio Disney as a programming service certainly isn't going away, but will Disney stockholders want to continue to lose money on expensive and almost-unheard AM transmitters? Somehow I doubt it.
So what do you suggest specifically on AM?
Let's say someone donated you an AM frequency. So you didn't have to buy it. But you have to pay for staff, facilities, benefits, insurance, utilities, and other ongoing expenses. Assume you need to raise about $3 million a year to cover your expenses. How would you do it?
Let's say someone donated you an AM frequency. So you didn't have to buy it. But you have to pay for staff, facilities, benefits, insurance, utilities, and other ongoing expenses. Assume you need to raise about $3 million a year to cover your expenses. How would you do it?
TheBigA said:
I'm not sure if anything can be done unless technical issues can be resolved. My suggestions are:
1. Turn off HD on the AM band. Today. No excuse for this cluster**** being allowed to continue.
2. Eliminate directional antennas. Yes, that would require some stations to change frequencies, move to FM, or go away altogether. As a rough guess, the AM band should be able to handle about 1500 stations max.
3. Expand the audio response to 15 kHz. It still wouldn't be perfect compared to FM, but it'd be competitive.
4. If a commercial station can't cover its entire market 24/7, it shouldn't get licensed. That means a minimum power level of 1000 watts for small-town stations and 5000 watts for major markets. Noncoms would be exceptions, and could be licensed as low as 10 watts. Expand the number of Class C channels, possibly even the entire 1230-1490 kHz band.
5. Clean up the Class A channels so that only 1 to 3 (spaced 2000 miles minimum) 50 kW stations are on each one. Class B channels, at 5 or maybe 10 kW, could hold maybe a dozen stations each (rough guess). 1500-1580 would be Class A, 1590-1700 would be Class B. Class A and B channels at 530-1220 would be as they are today.
This still doesn't take into account the fact that it's impossible to put a functional AM radio inside a modern portable device due to the required size of the antenna. I don't think there's any way to compensate for this. My suggestions would take about 2/3 of existing AM stations dark, but the surviving stations would have much better (and full-market) coverage. But not on portable devices, unfortunately, unless the Walkman makes a comeback.
KeithE4 said:
Sorry, but most of what you suggest aren't ownership fixes. We play by the rules we're given. And we have a do-nothing government that has created more problems than solutions.
So back to the original question. Since it's a given that the FCC isn't going to do squat with broadcasting until it goes completely away, what do you realistically suggest in terms of radio reinventing itself? What can owners or programmers do to bring listeners to AM?
TheBigA said:
Yes, I do understand your point. The FCC has f'ed up broadcasting for decades. But the rules need to be changed and my guess is that only the broadcasters themselves can make that happen...if they want to. And, I was talking only about AM, not FM or broadcasting in general.
For starters, convince radio advertisers that there are people who buy their products that are older than 55. The current definition of The Almighty Sacred Sales DemoTM is outdated. People are living longer, staying healthy longer, and are buying the advertisers' products - unless said advertiser gives us the middle finger and considers us unimportant. Which happens too often.
People my age are going online just as much as the kids are. That's the only place we can find what we want for the most part - which is classic rock (and I mean '60s/'70s, certainly not anything post-1985), real oldies ('50s & '60s), jazz, classical, and true adult standards and maybe even elevator music. Oldies would need classic-style DJs to sound right, but the others probably wouldn't, so profitability would be easier since costs would be minimised.
KeithE4 said:
They really can't. Every rule change they've attempted to push has to get run through the political sausage grinder. The politicians have their own agenda, and it's not necessarily in the public interest.
KeithE4 said:
That's not something radio stations can do. It's an agency problem. Believe me, I've tried to explain to agencies a lot of realities of radio, and they don't listen. They hire the people who tell them who buys their products. They believe the people they hire. So they come into a meeting with their own prejudices, and aren't going to take our word that old people buy things besides Depends and drugs.
But this doesn't address the earlier point about attracting younger people to radio. People over 55 aren't the future of radio.
WOWWW...Radio is in trouble. Much like "newspapers". O well, survival of the fittest.
TheBigA said:
Except for the local agency with smaller local clients, my experience is that sales targets are established by the client, not the agency.
In the case of many advertisers, the product or service is specifically designed, packaged and tested against a consumer group and then advertising is focused on that group.
In the case of the larger accounts, there is a wealth of proprietary research about most consumer products and services that shows the "sweet spots" for sales, and there is also a wealth of data at the marketing level showing that there is a correlation between age and increasing cost per sale of people who require much more convincing to change brands or to try something new.
Most stations that sell national and regional sell via reps, and reps for the most part put together packages that offer the CPP and moochendising that agencys want. The buyers they work with have no demo or target authority, and are subject to audit. The big local shops are also guided by client dictates and most sellers don't get up to the level of talking to agency people who actually work with the client... with the added issue that local agencies can't be convinced that the soft AC station is really a Hot AC station and will sell a ton of Minis for the local dealer.
A few media repos... as often as not the GM or DoS of a station group... may develop relationships that go further, but most radio sellers never get to anyone who can change the demos on a buy.
TheBigA said:
Depends on the market, the frequency and the power. There are markets where billing $3 million is impossible even on the #1 station in town.
Even in Los Angeles, I'd bet half the AMs simply don't have the reach necessary to bill a guaranteed $3 mil a year.
michael hagerty said:
LA has the nearly unique (NY and SF are the other two with the characteristics) situation where there are multiple national / language / ethnic groups that live in concentrated areas and can support a station that could not make it in the general market.
KFWB is probably one of these stations that could make good billing in a non-English format but never in English.
Examples of fairly terrible facilities that likely bill at or over $3 million would be:
KAZN 1300
KFOX 1650
KBLA 1580
KVNR 1480
KMRB 1430
KGBN 1190
KIRN 670
KLTX 1390
And maybe KMPC 1540
The leaders, at around $6 million each, are KAZN and KIRN. Given the low costs of operation, these stations are likely enormously profitable.
None of these signals is anywhere close to being a full market signal.
There are 34 AMs in the market. Of these, 4 (610, 1470, 1380, 1220) are in the High Desert and should not be considered for this kind of analysis as they do not cover what most consider the LA market.
A couple of the religious stations like KBRT and KFRN, are not appropriate to analyze as there is more than just profit motivating them.
One AM, the other 1220, is a simulcast with another AM.
That leaves 27 stations.
9 listed above, and 12 more from KFI to KLAC bill well over $3 in general market programming ranging from ESPN to news and news/talk, sports in Spanish. So there are only 6 that don't do $3 million and likely can't, like 1600 in Pomona or 1460 in Inglewood or 1230 in LA.
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