PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEXT 10 YEARS

[justpassingthough]

Over on the New York board, there is a topic asking for what radio in the market will look like in 2020. Who wants to get us started for LA?

 

[musicman3355]

1. 94.7 The Wave flips to "Fresh 94.7"
2. KSWD probably won't make it and flip to News/Talk (like their sister KTAR-FM in Phoenix)
3. KRTH will probably start playing 90's hits
4. Indie will probably come back on 103.1 or 107.1
5. LA probably gets a dance station on 92.7, replacing Jill FM
6. KXOL might flip to CHR
7. KHHT leans to Rhythmic AC... which is what they're suppose to be.

 

[K6JHU]

Since we are going to 2020...

1. Most of the big AM's go to an HD-2 channel.
2. Many of the smaller AM's broker a deal for an HD-3 channel.
3. Instead of LPFM, we end up with LPAM as the band thins out.
4. The AM band may have only half as many stations.

 

[davideduardo]

Over on the New York board, there is a topic asking for what radio in the market will look like in 2020. Who wants to get us started for LA?

- There will be fewer Spanish language stations because the inflow of Spanish dominant born-abroad Hispanics has stopped and likely will not increase to former levels.

- There will be more new formats catering almost exclusively to second generation Hispanic 18-34s, since the children of the big mid-80's boom in immigration are now filling up the lower ends of that demo... and they are English dominant.

- The big AM talkers will move to FM signals, or see their demos become unsalable.

- Formats with old demos will have to refresh the music by a decade or find a new format. KLOS, KRTH, even KOST fit this high-end demo situation.

- Younger demo stations will again start promoting new music in greater quantaties as radio becomes the default for "consensus music."

- Most stations will have more on-line / alternate distribution audience than they have via terrestrial transmitters.

- Many formats will be national, with high profile talent.

- AM will not exist as a mass medium. AM stations will either move to FM or close; niche format and brokered programming will be on WiMax neighborhood radio, with the ability to target only specific areas in major markets (like cable system ads do now)

- Music stations will be content-rich, depending on the listening device... including videos, in depth material, etc.

- There will be no radios, no TV sets. The smart phone will become the "personal vault" containing each person's movies, music, "radio" choices, address book, facebook account, web browser, messaging, video messaging, and, yeah, it will make phone calls. Just plug it in to a monitor or speakers or your car or, probably your in-house system you can address by voice command.

- Those of us who think radio is a transmitter on the hill will be seriously SOL.

 

[michael hagerty]

I think David's probably pegged it. The only thing I'd add is that if KNX is doing all-news on FM HD in 10 years, they'll probably resist the urge to call it "2020 News".

Worth considering...in 2020:

A 49 year old will be someone born in 1971...whose peak musical awareness will have been 1987-1993. That will likely be the oldest listener ad agencies will care about.

An 18 year old will be someone born in 2002...that person's likely listening to Radio Disney at the moment.

If they have survived in anything resembling their present formats, KLOS will be 49 years old, KRTH 48 and KIIS-FM 45.

 

[radiojomo]

4. Indie will probably come back on 103.1 or 107.1
5. LA probably gets a dance station on 92.7, replacing Jill FM
6. KXOL might flip to CHR

4. I was a big Indie fan, and I wish that would happen, but there's a good chance it's not gonna happen. Especially with LA having two Alternative stations, the financial problems the station had before and signal problems. But Indie is a format that really doesn't need an FM signal because most of the listeners of this format (a very niche listener base that appreciates unknown music, one of these listeners myself) have made the switch to internet radio, iPods or satellite.
5. The KJLL signal would not bring a dance station to LA. KJLL is based in Orange County and Thousand Oaks, the signal would not hit the urban LA areas, where the station would probably work the best.
6. KXOL is owned by SBS, otherwise known as the Spanish Broadcasting System. The company does not have any English programming stations in LA or in the whole world and it would cost SBS more to program and target a different format than they've ever done before. If the station wanted to flip formats, the format would most likely be Spanish. If they were to flip to another language format, it would involve a sale and there would be a good chance it wouldn't be CHR due to the intense competition between KIIS, KAMP and KPWR. Three stations that aren't going anywhere for a long time because of the demographics. There's a good chance that if there's a high teen percentage at the station, the listeners will develop loyalty if they stay in the LA area and the stations keep catering what the audience wants.That's why stations that have younger demos have consistantly been in the Top 20 in their respective demographics and just overall. Stations like KIIS, KROQ and KPWR have always brought in a younger demo and that's why their ratings stay strong and always tend to target the correct audiences.

 

[hipman2]

My prediction. There will be TV simulcasts on AM radio stations as an alternative to broadcasting radio with pictures as it's gotten expensive for the TV broadcasters, while the number of cable viewers of their channels continue to replace the over the air viewers of their channels. It may be cheaper for KCBS, KNBC, et al, to ditch their expensive DTV broadcast sticks and just simulcast their sound on AM radio while their TV signals would become cable only channels. Many AM stations are struggling anyway, and it's almost impossible to get free TV while you're driving in your car (as well as against the law in the driver's side).

The Los Angeles TV stations may be far better off than the stations in the smaller markets. Palm Springs has almost all of its TV viewers via cable. San Diego's terrain is tough on free TV.

As for which AM stations in the Los Angeles area may flip is anyone's guess.

 

[ChannelFlipper]

Over on the New York board, there is a topic asking for what radio in the market will look like in 2020. Who wants to get us started for LA?

- There will be fewer Spanish language stations because the inflow of Spanish dominant born-abroad Hispanics has stopped and likely will not increase to former levels.

- There will be more new formats catering almost exclusively to second generation Hispanic 18-34s, since the children of the big mid-80's boom in immigration are now filling up the lower ends of that demo... and they are English dominant.

- The big AM talkers will move to FM signals, or see their demos become unsalable.

- Formats with old demos will have to refresh the music by a decade or find a new format. KLOS, KRTH, even KOST fit this high-end demo situation.

- Younger demo stations will again start promoting new music in greater quantaties as radio becomes the default for "consensus music."

- Most stations will have more on-line / alternate distribution audience than they have via terrestrial transmitters.

- Many formats will be national, with high profile talent.

- AM will not exist as a mass medium. AM stations will either move to FM or close; niche format and brokered programming will be on WiMax neighborhood radio, with the ability to target only specific areas in major markets (like cable system ads do now)

- Music stations will be content-rich, depending on the listening device... including videos, in depth material, etc.

- There will be no radios, no TV sets. The smart phone will become the "personal vault" containing each person's movies, music, "radio" choices, address book, facebook account, web browser, messaging, video messaging, and, yeah, it will make phone calls. Just plug it in to a monitor or speakers or your car or, probably your in-house system you can address by voice command.

- Those of us who think radio is a transmitter on the hill will be seriously SOL.

I agree with David on nearly every one of these points, particularly the ones related to AM. There are a few big predictions to be made though. Unlike other major markets, LA has not seen one major AM format switched or even simulcast to an FM frequency. Who will be the first to do so and when? And when will KFI do it if they are not first? I have posted before (and still believe) that KFI can be an absolute media powerhouse, not just a radio powerhouse by going to FM - it's untapped upside is tremendous.

AM will become a niche and ethnic format haven in the end and soon many (more) devices will be made with FM only or FM and FM-HD only. That trend has already started. My college-aged cousins, nephews and nieces don't even know AM exists. It is not over for AM yet, but the fat lady has already warmed up and is ready to go on stage.

Also, what will be the impact of all of these new LPFM's that have been approved recently? Will they be a net benefit or detriment to the dial as a whole? It seems like that would be a lot of interference to muck up the signal of the main frequencies like what has happened to AM, but I am no engineer and FM is a different animal. I would be interested to hear what the engineering types think about this.

 

[radiocph]

Also, what will be the impact of all of these new LPFM's that have been approved recently? Will they be a net benefit or detriment to the dial as a whole? It seems like that would be a lot of interference to muck up the signal of the main frequencies like what has happened to AM, but I am no engineer and FM is a different animal. I would be interested to hear what the engineering types think about this.

Have any LPFM's been approved in So. Calif yet? I haven't heard of any, but I haven't really been keeping up...I wouldn't think there's really a place to fit them!

 

[SandyG]

And Tom Leykis will STILL be getting a fat (excuse the pun) check from CBS for NOT being on the air in LA.