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Predictions When PPM Comes to Las Vegas

C

constantine

Guest
Which stations at the top do you think will drop down when PPM Ratings come to Las Vegas? Which lower rated stations do you think will jump in the ratings?
 
Judging by the PPM markets out so far it looks like Spanish language and Urban/Hip-Hop take the biggest hits. The extent of the loss varies from market to market but the trend is clear. Based on that I'll predict that KISF will have the single largest drop of any station diary to PPM. Looking at the LA PRECIOSA station in San Jose (KSJO), KWID could be in for a big drop as well. Being the most urban sounding of the rhythmics, I will guess KVEG will also go down with PPM. I know that Arbitron is getting a lot of pressure about this, so maybe by the time the first PPM numbers come out in LV the ethnic stations won't take such a big hit?

As far as lower rated stations moving up. Maybe KXTE? I'm sure they are waiting to see how they do with PPM. In some markets Alternative thrives with PPM, check out WRFF in Philly! Although they have a softer blend of music than EXTREME does. On the other hand there are other ALT stations that did poor with the diary and continue to do bad with PPM (WKQX/Chicago, KITS/San Francisco, KDGE/Dallas).

The country stations might go up with PPM. The country station in LA KKGO is doing a lot better with PPM, but that's on the surface 6+. I read (just like country in Las Vegas) that the demos are old, GO COUNTRY ranks poorly 25-54. It's interesting how in some markets like Dallas country clearly benefited with PPM while in Houston the format did not rebound, look at KILT in particular.

I also predict with PPM some of the strong will get even stronger. I expect KSNE to be HUGE with PPM. FRESH being gone will help SUNNY all the more. I heard FRESH in quite a few business's, they would have gotten a PPM boost, now it will add to KSNEs already large share, MIX will benefit too. Another station that does well now that I think will do even better with PPM is KKLZ. Classic Hits (I'm sorry "Greatest Hits") does excellent with PPM!
 
There is a signal problem with some of these stations...if someone is at work, in a building, out in anthem, in their car, etc. ...so who they listen to may not be their first choice...of course if they hear the ad they hear the ad.

Speaking of which. I can't hear what webstite some of theses ads and their stupid jingle is trying to promote, some half off deal?? can't hear it loose the drums...

and some loan company, thick NY accents don't cut it with transplant Californians.

With all the background noise..maybe people should just hire a proffessional to read their ad.

Keep it simple...the music and jingles distract
 
I predict KXTE will go DOWN. Truth is hardly anyone can listen to that crap music for any extended period of time, at least not enough people to bring in big ad revenue via PPM. The stations that will succeed are the ones people ACTUALLY listen to and not the ones people SAY they listen to. Alternative/New Rock stations are hard to keep afloat via Diary, with PPM it becomes even harder.
 
@mred
I completely disagree. I think you'll see KOMP drop and KXTE rise...it all depends on who gets the PPM's, but if it's an evenly distributed, fair system, you'll see KXTE rise.
 
iknowpeople said:
@mred
I completely disagree. I think you'll see KOMP drop and KXTE rise...it all depends on who gets the PPM's, but if it's an evenly distributed, fair system, you'll see KXTE rise.


Even distributed? Fair system from Arbitron? Ahhh, no. And especially not in Vegas. Just like in the diary system, the PPM In-tab will be one of the worst percentages compared to population in the US. Plus, the M25-34 demo is the toughest to get (even in PPM). It's possible that KXTE will see an increase if a couple dudes in the demo get the meter and keep it on them. If they don't, they're screwed. However, in other PPM markets, Alternative has been a rough format (with the exception of KROQ because of their great upper demo cume and the Alternative station in Philly). I'm a fan of KXTE and certainly hope it does improve. They've been playing bigger hits lately. Plus, I'm glad they finally have a live/local morning show.
 
It will be interesting to see where the non-commercial stations will fall now that they will be rated in the same manner.
 
constantine said:
It will be interesting to see where the non-commercial stations will fall now that they will be rated in the same manner.

The non coms have always been rated in the same manner... but the rankers given to the press have not included them, and the trends software did not list them. PPM has no trends, and both weekly and monthly reports include non-coms, whereas only the full book software had them in the diary reports.
 
There is an interesting thread on the Phoenix board about their early PPM data. Two stations that had big increases from the diary were Hot AC KMXP (MIX) and Variety Hits PEAK which is similar to JACK. So both KMXB and KKJJ could do better with PPM.

KMXB could end up being huge with PPM. I say that because even in markets where Hot AC was doing poorly with the diary it does great with PPM. Since KMXB already was doing well with the diary system, they could do even better with the meter.

The oldies/classic hits station in Phoenix, KOOL, not only did great with PPM, their demos got younger, so this could be a good sign for KKLZ.

Phoenix has an FM talk station KTAR and it is top 5 25-54. While the AM talker KFYI does worse with PPM than it did with the diary. This makes me think all the more that KXNT should move to FM or some other FM station should flip to news-talk.
 
Early PPM results in Seattle are similar to Phoenix
with strong showings for AC, Jack, and Classic Hits.
Top 5 25-54 Seattle

1.KPLZ (Hot AC)
2.KJAQ (JACK)
3.KRWM (AC)
4.KJR-FM (Classic Hits)
5.KCMS (Contemporary Christian)

Seeing KCMS make the top 5 makes me wonder how SOS is going to do here.
 
I know it hasn't been a trend across the country....but I anticipate that ESPN 1100 will also benefit greatly from the PPM in Vegas. I hear that station listened to extensively by males all over the market and it never seems to get its due in the Arbitron numbers. I'd be surprised if it didn't see a bump with the new method of measurement.
 
ESPN Radio up in PPM? That's a bold prediction considering that Vegas isn't much of a sports market and few Sports stations have seen improvement in PPM. In fact, most have seen a decrease (even in Sports markets).

My predictions for PPM... Mix, Sunny, KLUC, Now, KKLZ and Jack will be in contention for top 5. Stations that will see down numbers are KVEG, KOMP, KXNT, Oasis and every Spanish station. The big questions are KXTE and the 2 Country stations.
 
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